Pucker Factor Has To Be On The Rise In Saudi Arabia

Now that the government of Bahrain has reversed course on its treatment of the anti-government protests there, the House of Sand must be more worried than before.  There are two reasons for the probable uptick in uptightness in the Kingdom.

First, the Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia is right across the narrow waterway from Bahrain.  The Eastern Province, like Bahrain, is majority Shiite in makeup.  Further, the Shiites of the EP echo their coreligionists in charges of discrimination at the hands of the Wahhibist regime and larger population.

Second, the House of Saud does not trust the current US administration.  The belief in Saudi Arabia is the Obama administration has gone wobbly with respect to the status quo in the Mideast.  The government at its highest levels is particularly torqued off over the administration having abandoned Hosni Mubarak with unseemly haste and without any eye on the future.  Of course, the future which Saudi Arabia worries about centers on any extension of Iranian influence in the region.

For several years now the primary concern of the House of Saud has been Iran not Israel.  The Saudis would be willing to sell out every Palestinian extant if that would help secure a future safe from Iranian ambitions.  The Saudis, as the WikiLeaks cables make clear, has lost no opportunity in conveying this position to the Obama administration as it did the Bush/Cheney team.  Any sign by Washington of decreasing interest in maintaining the status quo pushes the worry beads into hyperdrive all over the Kingdom.

Saudi Arabia has always been worried about being encircled.  In the old days of Pan-Arabism and the Soviet Union, the fear was the combination would create a Soviet controlled bloc running from Egypt to Iraq as well as from Egypt to Yemen.  Now the anxiety is that Iran will do something similar using proxies ranging from Hamas and Hezbollah to the Muslim Brotherhood as well as its "official" state ally, Syria.    The Saudi regime is now of the firm view that the US is not sensitive to this potential.

The House of Saud is not willing to believe its own propaganda.  The fear is the combination of gobs of money, Wahhibism, and a more or less popular royal house will not prove to be enough to defeat some full throated, Iranian assisted exercise in local "people power."  The first expression of this belief can be seen in the probable role being played by Saudi officials in the response by Bahrain to the pro-change demonstrators.

There is strong reason to believe (although no direct proof) that the very muscular response of the Bahraini security forces was orchestrated in Saudi Arabia.  The unexpected overnight shift to "dialogue" including the withdrawal of the army from Pearl Roundabout constituted a Bahraini act of regret.  Should the new, velvet glove approach not payoff and quickly, the fifteen mile causeway built by the Saudis exists for a reason far more military then providing a quick weekend getaway for Saudis in search of a drink.

The situation in Bahrain is far from settled.  The (perhaps temporary) back down by the government will probably prove insufficient to end the demonstrations permanently.  The blood of the martyrs will not allow such an easy out.  At the same time the House of Saud is not going to allow any move which smacks of regime change to occur.  While the Saudi army is probably not combat capable against the Iranians or any other real armed force, it is up to the task of squashing unarmed demonstrators.

The Obama administration will have to factor Saudi fears as well as probable Saudi actions into whatever passes as policy regarding Bahrain.  The Saudis will insist on order, the order of the status quo, being maintained against all comers and all American desires.  The Deep Thinkers of Team Obama will have to keep in mind the reality that the word "change" is an obscenity in the minds of the Saudi regime.

Recalling the rumors of Saudi campaign cash flowing into Obama coffers, one cannot help but wonder if the House of Saud believes now that it got value for its money.