When The Feces Hits The Fan In North Korea, Where Will Obama Stand?

The President of the United States has managed to avoid taking a real, effective stand with respect to the opposition movement in Iran.  Sorry, words of regret and condemnation don't cut it.  On Egypt, the POTUS entered the lists both late and after a series of internal contradictions within members of his "team."

Then along came Libya.  Sure, it was convenient to excuse the absence of effective action on anxiety that Americans in Libya would be at risk.  The British managed to take a far stronger albeit primarily rhetorical stand before extracting their civilians by means which included a virtual commando operation aimed at the oilfield workers deep in the desert in isolated camps.  The declaration of unilateral sanctions has come late in the game and will have no genuine, immediate impact on the confused mind of Gaddafi.

The POTUS had the power to order the freezing of all Libyan assets in banks doing business in or with the US.  This act particularly if taken early on and accompanied with a loud pronouncement of what was being done and why might have lowered the zeal of Gaddafi's mercenaries.  Coming late, particularly after the drum roll of threats regarding criminal prosecution, presumably under the Statute of Rome and before the International Criminal Court, financial freezes, sanctions, and jawboning has served only to enhance Gaddafi's die-in-place political will as well as the akin sentiments of family and coterie.

As the game nears its end, a primary risk in Libya is the use of chemical munitions, primarily mustard agent, left over from Gaddafi's earlier flirtation with weapons of mass destruction.  The only thing (other than apprehension regarding the loyalty of his air force personnel) which will assure that Gaddafi does not employ chemicals against his own people will be the immediate enforcement of a no-fly zone over the entirety of Libya enforced by NATO.  The US may not, as Robert Gates has asserted, have the air assets available, but the rest of NATO certainly does.  It is past time for the US to urge its allies to do so--immediately.

The dilatory and poorly focused reaction of President Obama to events in the Mideast and Iran does not boost confidence that the US will handle a regime collapse in North Korea with the necessary speed and skill.  The US and other countries should not assume that the status quo in North Korea is any more permanent than that in Libya appeared to be say ten or fourteen days ago.  To do so is to invite disaster on a massive scale.

Not only is North Korea facing the challenge of an orderly succession, it is in the throes of the latest famine.  This particular episode of mass starvation has been exacerbated greatly by the outbreak of hoof and mouth disease in the animal stockpile of the Hermit Kingdom of the North.  The disease has had major impact on two key areas of food production.  It has been wasting the draft animal population upon which most North Korean agriculture depends at an awesome rate of knots.  Further, the hog farms which provide most of the protein eaten by the North Korean military have been devastated by the disease.

The North Korean regime has responded to the new crisis in the usual ways.  Internationally, the diplomats of the Hermit Kingdom have extended their begging bowls.  Backing this and aimed directly at opinion in both the South Korean population and the American, the North Koreans have been ostentatiously preparing facilities for a possible third nuclear test--the test which might actually go off well.  Additionally, the Hermits have moved at least half of their noisy, vulnerable troop carrying hovercraft to a new port convenient to South Korea.  This move has not been secret in the slightest.  Extortion is backing the begging ploy.

There is little doubt but the Pyongyang regime has been following events in the Mideast closely--particularly the role played by the Egyptian army in the end of Hosni Mubarak.  Given the matter of succession, there may be real cause for worry on the part of both Kim and his son regarding the reliability of the armed forces.  And, it must never be forgotten, of all North Korean institutions, the NKPA is most conservative, most fearful, and most resistant to change as well as most oriented toward carrying the blessings of the Northern way of life to the South.

The danger in the situation as it is developing currently is that Kim may in a sense emulate Gaddafi.  He may role the dice for a winner take all high risk, high payoff strategy which would involve a military strike of significant size against the South.  This option would be more attractive if either the military looks to be going all wobbly on the succession deal or the starvation reaches a level as to propel some sort of people power expression of desperation.

Even the lesser threat of a successful multi-kiloton test would constitute a severe challenge to the Obama administration.  Perhaps even a larger challenge than a large scale but time limited raid on Southern territory by Northern forces.  Each would require a prompt, firm, unequivocal response by the US.  Anything less would be to risk a wide spread war on the Korean peninsula with all that implies.

Mr Obama has demonstrated that not only is he naive about the workings of global politics but that he is totally uninterested in correcting his lacking in this area.  Nor has his foreign policy "team" inspired confidence despite the presence of Gates on it.  His cabinet level UN Ambassador has been absent, presumably with leave, when the dramatic end of Mubarak came as well as during the Security Council meeting last week which issued the pusillanimous "press statement" on Libya.  And, the Secretary of State has merely made fine words about "all options being considered" which is scarcely an act of resolute statesmanship.

The Obama administration has bobbled so much in two years.  Should North Korea pose a challenge, the betting has to be the Obama "team" will drop the ball one more time.  That probability is most likely a major factor in the decision making presently underway in Pyongyang.