Not In An Ocean Near Us!

The Chinese are feeling peppy these days. Last week a heavy from the Peoples Liberation Army's Second Artillery Corps went international on how the PLA is developing information warfare technology. Of course, he denied that the boys and girls of the PLA were actually using this technology. Yet.

The general's denial of cyber-espionage or related activities was both pro forma and completely contrary to a goodly amount of evidence which has emerged in open sources over the past couple of years. Still, you can't expect the Chinese to come right out and admit what the hundreds of PLA personnel hovering over an equal number of terminals are actually doing in the cathodes' glow.

Comes now the the PLA's Navy. The peaceloving peoples of China acting through their equally peaceloving government have been beavering away down in Hainan. That island has been turned into a major naval and air facility. Nuclear submarine pens, dockyards, major air force installations and supporting structures litter the once pristine countryside.

Eight years ago the PLA's sensitivities over Hainan came into public view when one of their fighters had a mid-air collision with a US Navy elint aircraft. The US plane was able to make a forced landing at one of the airstrips on Hainan. The Chinese fighter was not so fortunate.

The resulting contretemps was finally resolved by the Bush Administration kind of, sort of, perhaps, maybe, offering a form of non-apology apology. The Chinese released the interned American crew and (ultimately) the remains of the aircraft.

One hopes the self-destruct gear built into the ferret's elint suite worked as promised.

At the time of the collision the US plane was over international waters although perhaps at the edge of the Chinese Exclusive Economic Zone which, in common with global practice. extends two hundred miles offshore. No one can allege that the US plane was illegally exploiting resources within the EEZ.

The same can be said regarding the incident involving units of the PLA's Navy and the US research ship USNS Impeccable. The Chinese craft maneuvered in a manner which put both them and the Impeccable at risk. In addition to this, one of the PLA (N) vessels strewed debris in the Impeccable's path.

The Chinese government has gone high volume noise machine in justifying their "defensive" action against the Impeccable. The usual accusations have flown from their Foreign Ministry regarding US provocation and violation of international agreements beyond numbering.

The Impeccable is equipped to do a number of tasks. One of its top functions is detailed sonar mapping. This sort of thing is useful but only in a military context.

The Chinese government and military know this. Both are fully aware that the US was not and is not violating the Chinese economic prerogatives in its EEZ. The PRC understands the military implications of the US doing detailed reconnaissance of the seabed only seventy-five miles from its naval constellation on Hainan.

That, however, is not the motivation behind the confrontation and resulting bellows of protest which nearly equal those following the mid-air collision in the first months of the Bush Administration.

So, what was it then? You want to know.

The action off Hainan was calibrated with care. The Chinese patrol vessels were all small, highly maneuverable and operated at slow speed. It is evident that the Impeccable had been under observation for some time before the event. Sonar mapping is not a high speed, low drag operation. It requires holding a constant course and speed with turns only at designated points. Thus, it is simple and relatively safe to approach the survey vessel at close range and hassle it.

Since the PLA is very, very hierarchical in organisation and under the firm control of the central authorities, it is proper to conclude that the operation was pre-approved, probably ordered by, the Lads in the Forbidden City. The locals carried out the order when the opportunity presented itself under conditions of good visibility and calm seas. (Cautious, very cautious boldness is a hallmark of the Beijing regime.)

It is fair to assume that the Chinese Foreign Ministry and its masters in the Forbidden City are perfectly well aware that the international agreements defining Exclusive Economic Zones provide certain rights. These rights do not include that of preventing maritime surveys of a non-economic nature conducted by unarmed naval vessels.

The Chinese know perfectly well that the EEZ definitions prevent not only the interference with innocent passage by armed vessels but also interference with normal subsea mapping and related activities. The PRC authorities know that if they were to send a ship equivalent to the Impeccable to map the seabed off the US coast there would be no American challenge--diplomatic or otherwise. We might watch them from a safe distance, but that would be the extent of our Navy's direct involvement.

This being the case, it is possible to conclude that the Chinese action was meant as a test of the Obama administration's patience and resolve. It is the equivalent of a shoulder bump in a crowd--a means of testing response without running a risk.

Think of it as a more finely nuanced and carefully controlled version of the airplane tag practiced with overly dramatic effects in the sky off Hainan eight years ago.

So why do it?

Because the Chinese want to know more about the capacity and will of the new administration to deal with the ever-increasing threat which they present to our freedom of action in the far reaches of the Pacific. The Chinese are in the midst of an immense improvement of their military capacities across the board.

They are rapidly developing a blue water capacity including not only nuclear submarines equipped with SLBMs but are edging into an area of naval warfare long the sole province of the US--carrier born aviation. The Chinese, like the Soviets before them, are abandoning coast defense as the primary function of their naval force.

The PLA itself is becoming leaner, meaner and more technologically advanced every day. It is far and away the most formidable force on the Asian landmass--including the Russian army in Siberia. Even without the evidently programmed improvements, the PLA has a capacity today far surpassing any legitimate defense requirement.

In air defense the Chinese have become a very, very tough target. Currently the programmed air defenses of the PLA are such that the US would have a difficult time effectively penetrating Chinese airspace. Only the F-35, F-117 and B-2 could penetrate without unacceptable losses. How long this will remain the case is debatable.

The Chinese have demonstrated an ASAT capacity and are known to be working on cloning the US ABM capabilities. Neither of these are reassuring to those who might want to see the US maintain its freedom of action in the far Pacific or elsewhere on the Asian landmass.

Of course all of these unpleasant Chinese developments became drearily predictable way back when. Way back when President Bill Clinton opened the doors of trade with the PRC. The neoliberals of that day believed that the web of trade made sure China was fully embraced and thus less likely to be truculent.

Access to American markets simply made sure that money flowed from the US to the PRC. It made certain that the Lads of the Forbidden City would have the means necessary to upgrade the peasant army of the PLA to a first class force and a genuine threat to American interests. The opening of the US also made it easier for the Chinese to gain access to American technology--by means either fair or foul.

As the experience of the previous half century had made clear, espionage simplifies research and development of advanced military technologies. Apparently neither the Clinton nor the Bush Administration bothered to review the history of the Cold War and the constant use made by the Soviets of espionage to gain access to critical US technologies.

With money gushing, secrets flowing and infrastructure growing there is no mystery to the growth of the Chinese threat to American national and strategic interests. Nor is there any mystery behind the periodic diplomatic jostles handed to us by the Chinese military. The Lads in the Forbidden City want to know--must know--how far they can push us before we push back.

The unarmed, non-lethal skirmish off Hainan may not be the "test" warned of by candidate Joe Biden last fall, but it is a test even so. More than seems to be involved hangs on the nature and character of the Obama Administration's response.

If the ripost is too mild, too lackluster, too apologetic, the US can expect more jostles, more tests. Perhaps even the big test of which Biden warned.