Thumbs Up On The Obama Tape To Iran

Since much, but far from all or even the most critical parts of diplomacy, is comprised of symbols, the Persian "New Year's" Greeting sent to the Iranian people by President Obama is a good idea. It remains a good idea even if the initial, tepid Iranian governmental response turns colder over the next few days and weeks.

Public diplomacy, to use the new, improved and politically correct term for what was formerly called propaganda is a much maligned, often poorly used and typically undeservedly underutilized tool in the diplomatic arsenal. In the Pliocene of mass communications the potential of propaganda--oops! The Geek means "public diplomacy--was limited. Government's had too much capacity to completely control their citizens' access to unfiltered, external messages.

Now, with the proliferation of horizontal mechanisms of communication the task confronting a control freak government is far more complicated. In Iran the wide usage of satellite television and Internet assures that much of the Iranian public will have the chance to see and hear Obama's olive branch message and judge it for themselves. Whether this reality may or may not influence the Iranian government or mullahocracy in the development and implementation of policy is impossible to judge accurately.

At the very least the apparent sincerity of the president's words and gestures as well as the novelty effect will go some distance to undercutting any public support for a reflexive rejection through the imposition of impossible conditions by the Tehran regime. It should be recalled that the regime feels insecure on a nearly perpetual basis.

While the regime points at "foreign powers" and "subverters of religion" as the cause of their chronic anxiety, the reality is far less remote or rarefied. The country's economy is so far in the tank that it makes current conditions in the US look like a business expansion. The social consequences of this reality coupled with increasing resentment with the heavy-handed actions of the morality and virtue police have escalated toward a tipping point of destabilization.

So, the mullahs and politicos alike have to listen to the word of Allah with one ear while keeping the other firmly oriented toward the street. Of late the rumbles from the latter have been louder than the sweet music of the former.

Insecure regimes are dangerous regimes. They are also regimes looking for a face saving way back from the looming crevice of internal instability. The Obama tape gives a way back.

If the Iranians can, for the first time in thirty years eschew threats, bluster and chest-beating, they can take the route provided by the president's message. The mullahs of Mahdi-land need to have an epiphany. They need to get the word that stability is best provided over the long term by measures other than banging the gong of war, the issuance of threats or the claiming of superior military technology which does not exist.

Since the mullahs and their mouthpieces often refer to the days of the great Persian Empire over two thousand years ago, they might consult the history books. They might look at the chapters covering the fall of the mighty empire. They might note that a scruffy band of fractious Europeans fought the enormous empire first to a stand still and then, after the requisite period of internal conflict, shattered the myriads of Darius.

The moral of the story is simple: Bluster, threats and nuke waving won't buy a stable future. They are far more likely to finally force the outsiders to unite against you--with a predictable replay of ancient history. Ancient history with a modern body count.

The Obama gesture in public diplomacy shows an alternative. The only question--and its a very, very big one--is this: Do the mullahs and mouthpieces have the wit to respond in kind?