"Their Views Are Primative And Unconstructive"

So said George Kennan of the Soviet Union after a stormy meeting in the Kremlin. His words were well considered then and they deserve a new employment regarding the rhetoric (and behavior) of the last Stalinist state on Earth--North Korea.

The Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea (as the Hermit Kingdom of the North prefers to be known) is a totally obnoxious and quite dangerous state. Both characteristics are seen plainly in the DPRK's export oriented approach to nuclear and missile technology.

"What!" You exclaim, interrupting the Geek's prolixity, "You mean it's like that line in the old Steve Martin movie...?"

Yeah, that is exactly what the Geekmo means. For the Hermit Kingdom the nuclear and missile technologies developed and developing are not mere matters of prestige, diplomacy and power, they are, as the Steve Martin character put it, "a profit deal." The WSJ ironically underscored this capitalist aspect of the communist country yesterday with a headline reading "Successful Test Will Mean Sales."

The export oriented nature of North Korea's missile and nuke programs is also highlighted by the high level Iranian delegation which will be on hand when the ICBM (oops! The Geek meant to write peaceful-communications-satellite-launch-vehicle) lifts off some time in the next ten days. Considering the rather lackluster performance of Iranian home made rockets, a purchase might be in order--if the DPRK bird gets off the ground for more than a handful of seconds.

Of course the Iranians might be in North Korea to take a dekko or two at the nuclear technology the industrious workers and peasants have developed. If, as most close observes believe to be the case, the North Koreans have weaponised their plutonium such that it can be boosted by their already extant medium range ballistic missiles, the Iranians might have a close professional interest in this as well.

True, the Iranians have gotten the big noise from their uranium enrichment program. Also true, the technology applicable to a plutonium bomb is not directly transferable to the most common design of uranium weapon, but the Tehran crew will not be plutonium deficient for that much longer considering their heavy water reactor will go power-up later this year.

Other than minerals and metallurgical products the Hermit Kingdom has little to sell. Except, that is, for military equipment and related technology. The Northerners have specialised in recent years in the export sale of high-end items particularly surface-to-surface and anti-ship missiles. And, they have sold aspects of production technology for these as well as for nuclear weapons manufacture.

As is well known the Iranians have been good, steady and reliable customers both directly and through intermediaries such as Pakistan. You bettcha, for Pongyang, the upcoming launch is "a profit deal."

The Hermit Kingdom has had little to gain long-term and much to lose by actually seeing a successful (from the US, Japanese or South Korean perspective) conclusion to the well neigh perpetual Six Power Talks. As the North Koreans (and their Chinese partners) demonstrated conclusively during the talks leading to the 1953 Armistice of the Korean War, they are masters at prolonging negotiations.

Now as back then, the Northerners have shown a positive artistry with their capacity to take full advantage of American imperatives to make a deal and get it over with.

----They are perfectly attuned to and take full advantage of the propensity of diplomats to invest ego in the progress of negotiations and the reality of the final product.

----They are highly skilled at the diplomatic version of bait-and-switch.

----They can pull an end-of-game stall that would make any NBA coach drool with envy.

----They have a capacity to wring maximum concessions for minimum payment which would make legendary American labor leaders like John L. Lewis and Walter Reuther shout with joy.

----They have an unmatched talent for ramping up apparent crises.

Consider the latest demarches from the Hermit Kingdom. The two American women of Asian ancestry who work for the New Media television outfit started by Al Gore are not only under arrest having been captured in ill-defined circumstances at the hazy Tuman River border area, now Pongyang has announced they will stand trial for "actions hostile to the state."

The language of both the announcement and the discription of the charge is quite redolent of the Soviet show trial period. So is the potential penalty. Ten years "corrective labor."

This episode is simply the first rachet up of the made-in-North Korea crisis.

The second is the reaction of the Pongyang regime to the announcement by the Japanese government that its military and naval forces were prepared to shoot down the missile should it or any part of it threaten Japanese territory. Considering that the announced flight plan will take the ICBM over the northern Japanese island of Hokkaido, this action is not unjustified nor is it hostile.

That is unless you're Pongyang. Then its a whole different thing.

Comes now the state controlled Korean Central News Agency. In an article today the regime trumpeted, "Should Japan dare recklessly to intercept the DPRK's satellite, its army will consider this as the start of Japan's war of reinvasion more than six decades after the end of the Second World War." Whatever that might mean or imply.

Rather than allowing the North Korean statement to pass by with the silence it deserves or dismiss it with a brusque comment in the style of Kennan, SecState Clinton made the usual blather to the effect that the North Koreans would face "consequences" should they proceed with the launch in contravention to the UN Security council resolution. Considering that the Hermit Kingdom of the North has a record of ignoring the Security Council which surpasses that of Iran, the Clinton warning has no probative value.

The launch is going to go off as scheduled. Whether this effort will be any less of a failure than its predecessor a few years ago remains to be seen. The Japanese will not attempt a shoot-down unless the emissary from across the Sea of Japan goes dangerously astray. Tokyo is no more eager for a confrontation than is the US.

Even if the rocket does a belly flop thirty seconds into flight, the Iranians will not go home empty handed and disappointed. North Korea will have shown them a technique far more useful and far more worthy of payment than a mere missile.

North Korea will have shown Tehran just how its done. How a country can successfully stave off several of the richest, most potent states of the world without the slightest penalty.

And, the Iranians are very apt students.