While there was no immediate claim of responsibility for the attack near the Nahel Oz crossing point, the precise identity of the horse-tugging trigger pullers and their purported organisational affiliation is unimportant. What counts is simply that the de facto government of the Gaza Strip, Hamas, must have known about the forthcoming attack. More, it is totally non-credible that the attack took place without Hamas' authorization.
This fact means in turn that the attack originated with the Iranian mullahocracy. Hamas has once more shown its status as a mere puppet of the apocalyptic crew in Tehran, which is no way worthy of its purported status as a government.
Presumably President Obama was aware of the actual nature and character of Hamas before he delivered his soaring oratory in Cairo the other day. Presumably he chose to ignore the realities of Hamas in order to pretend that Hamas would some how, some way fold its violence filled tent and join with the less lethal government-by-pretense, the Palestinian Authority, in a legitimate quest for a settlement with Israel.
Now, let's call it as it is. All together now. "Tehran orders. Hamas delivers." It is that simple. Even a hick historian in the backwoods of the New Mexican mountains can get it.
It is not wide of the mark to presume that the attempt to get bomb toting livestock into Israel into close proximity of an IDF patrol was a partial but indicative reply by Tehran and its clients to the Obama Outreach to Islam Program. It may be the first reply; it most assuredly will not be the last.
Honey flavored demarches will get nowhere with the Iranians. Rosy views of the (hypothetical) potentials of diplomatic exchanges to modify obnoxious behavior on the part of the mullahs do not change the reality.
The Iranian top dogs are engaged in a high stakes, high payoff game. They are employing a shrewd combination of the two primary motivators--Persian pride filled nationalism and Islamist dogma--to gain the goals of regional hegemony and a front rank place on the world's stage. The mullahs and their political frontmen are willing to run fairly large risks, quite ready to further impoverish the Iranian public and employ the ambitions of others to achieve their ends.
The Supreme Ayatollah, his ruling circle of identically minded clerics and the chief frontman, Ahmedinejad (who will in highest probability be re-elected despite the strong challenge provided by Mousavi and his energetic supporters among the Iranian youth and political "elite") have made their policy of "intransigence, more intransigence and even more intransigence" quite apparent. To date this policy coupled with the almost brilliant use of proxies such as Hamas and Hezbollah and the inherently divided nature of the several Great Powers has paid off--and paid off handsomely.
Sure, Ahmedinejad and the clerics above and behind him often talk like a collection of warp minded buffoons. But, that is no reason to assume that they are not capable of profoundly perturbing the current state of global politics. Or, that through a concatenation of mis-calculation and over-reach, plunging all of us in a war we do not want.
There is ample precedent for this cautionary note. A century and more ago the German ruler, Kaiser Wilhelm, often appeared to be a strutting fool, thumping the war drum, waving his saber, posturing and bragging. Statesmen in the US and Europe vacillated between dismissing him as an irritating poseur and waving sabers in return.
Two things are dead certain about Kaiser Bill (as Americans called him during the Great War): He was utterly serious about gaining for Germany what he called, "Its place in the sun." And, through a combination of over-reach and miscalculation, he assured the giant slaughter of World War I (and, indirectly, the second half of the European Civil War between 1939 and 1945.)
The Kaiser was allowed and encouraged to over-reach in his ambitions and mis-read the intention and will of France, Russia and Great Britain because these countries did not draw a firm line in the metaphorical sand and enforce it in a consistent manner. In this historical example resides the most important lesson for today, for the US and all the others members of the P5 +1. A firm policy, consistently imposed and backed by a clear will and ability to resort to force, prevents "accidental" war by miscalculation and over-reach.
The Iranians have stated their intentions both in word and in action with remarkable coherence and constancy over the past twenty-five and more years. The mullahocracy has been far more open in its long term goals and determined in the prosecution of these goals than has the US or the West generally.
That is to their credit. And, to our discredit.
Iran has received a seeming setback. It is, however, a setback which the US should not see as being particularly meaningful or important in the settlement of the Israeli-Arab conflict. The results of the election in Lebanon did see the American backed March 14 coalition soundly and unexpectedly trounce Hezbollah. But, that is not cause for Uncle Sam to give forth a great sigh of relief.
Far more important than the overall election result was the simple fact that Hezbollah and its close ally, Amal, swept the area between the Litani river and the Israeli border. This is the area which most concerns Israel. It is the region where the IDF was very roughly handled by the fighters of Hezbollah in 2006. It is the area where Hezbollah and Amal have stockpiled thousands of rockets capable of reaching to an uncomfortable depth in Israel.
Now, all together now, "Tehran orders. Hezbollah delivers." That's where it's at, Jack.
Whenever the mullahs want to administer another slap to the ever smiling Nice Young Man From Chicago and his quest to lever Israel into making compromises without return, Hezbollah can slap a heck of a lot harder than the Gaza based horse-holding trigger pullers of Hamas. That is not a pleasant possibility to consider.
But, it exists. It is evidence of Tehran's inherent capacity to escalate or de-escalate as is required by the exigencies of Iranian policy.
Recently, words drifting from the general area of the Oval have linked peace between Israel and the Arabs with the success of efforts to preclude Iran from getting the "Mahdi Bomb." This linkage is not correct even when espoused by King Abdullah II of Jordan or King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia.
The real deal is far simpler. Tehran is the one and only point of linkage between the Mahdi Bomb and the search for a reasonable facsimile of peace between Israel and its neighbors. The focus of diplomacy, the focus of pressure for both peace and the preclusion of undesired nuclear proliferation is Tehran. And only Tehran.
If President Obama and his crew don't get that right they can expect more slaps in the face. If the slaps don't work, there will be kicks in the butt. Remember the magic words, "Tehran orders. (Fill in the blank) delivers."
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