Khemenei Has The Only Vote That Matters

The Grand Ayatollah Khemenei has a grand dream or two. The first is to eliminate the words of the Ayatollah Khomenei to always observe "the will of the people" and establish a pure theocracy without even the shadow of democracy which currently exists. The second is to procure nuclear weapons.

The GA has abandoned even the slightest pretext of being an impartial arbiter of governmental and political matters who rides sublimely on a cloud of Koranic interpretations. He has all but ordered the Iranian people to line up submissively behind Ahmedinejad whom Khemenei has called the "elected president."

Now, all that remains is to see whether or not the Grand Ayatollah can muster the will to kill enough "dissidents" to stop the protests. Will Khemenei do what the Shah did not do back in 1979--fill the streets with blood and corpses?

Or will Khemenei take the softer route? He has an alternative. Hold new elections. Make sure that Moussavi wins the next time. Khemenei can decide that the better alternative is to use all the old Chicago political tricks in favor of Moussavi.

After all it matters not in the least who is president. As far as Iran's pursuit of the atomic bomb and regional hegemonic status are concerned there is no measurable daylight between Moussavi and Ahmedinejad. There may be a reluctance on Moussavi's part to use the strident and insulting rhetoric which tumbles so naturally from Ahmedinejad's mouth. But, there is no substantial difference in their world views. Nor is Moussavi at loggerheads with Khemenei regarding the paramountcy of strict Islamist construction even if Moussavi is willing to acknowledge that women are human beings with unique and important talents.

As long as Khemenei is at the top of the food chain there is no reason to expect any change in Iranian behavior with the hypothetical substitution of the likable Moussavi for the completely detestable Ahmedinejad. Actually the substitution would be to Iran's favor.

Moussavi seems rational. He appears to possess all the attributes that the Western media and political figures deem "moderate." It will be harder to muster an effective diplomatic coalition to enforce sanctions against Iran with the nice, "moderate," rational Moussavi at the head of government. Moussavi's lack of lunatic words and bluster about such matters as the Holocaust and expunging Israel from the map will make it harder for the Israeli government to gain even tacit understanding for the existential threat Iran represents.

If the pro-Moussavi demonstrators can persevere in the face of escalating repression and if the Grand Ayatollah refrains from authorising wholesale slaughter, there is some slight chance that the mullahocracy will decide for the "soft" approach and let Moussavi win the next (rigged) election. That is the very best which Iranians and the world can hope for.

A Moussavi presidency might well mean some important albeit cosmetic changes internally. It will not mean any chance of any change whatsoever in Iran's foreign and national security policies. Iran will remain what it has been for some years--an eight hundred pound gorilla with unlimited ambitions and appetites. The gorilla will have a nicer face, a smile around the fangs, with Moussavi as president. That is a change without meaning.

The only real potential for change in Iran as some of the demonstrators chanting "Down with the dictator" know. That is getting rid of the Grand Ayatollah and those of similar mind and dreams. There is no real probability of that happening. Not in the real world.

Who knows? The mind of Allah might change. That is not for Geeks in the West or demonstrators in Tehran to know.