The Prime Minister, Nuri al-Maliki has declared this First Magic Day to be one of national rejoicing, feasting, and festival. Cutting to the chase, Maliki called it a "great victory." The US has declined to comment on this declaration which implies that, somehow, the Americans have been defeated by the will of the Iraqi people and their government.
In what almost appeared as an afterthought, the joyful Prime Minister warned that there would be continued efforts on the part of unspecified individuals and groups to destabilize the situation. He added that "with Allah's will I and you will be ready for them."
The Iranian people, or at least those contacted by the NYT, a group which included senior Iraqi security officials, did not share the PM's hope--or willingness to rest the future of their nation and lives on the will of Allah. Considering the recent epidemic of very lethal vehicle bombings, the trepidations expressed seem to be far more rooted in reality than the Maliki declaration of victory and national day of fest and festivals.
Another cloud is on Maliki's upbeat horizon. He is being seen as Saddam incarnate. This is an overstatement, but the reality that Maliki is not the limp wristed, easily pulled by the nose sort of fellow he was initially viewed as being is most assuredly true--and necessary. There can be no arguing against the proposition that Maliki is using violence and intimidation against those who would be so bold as to oppose him. Arguably, that is the reality of Iraqi politics now and into the foreseeable future.
Unfortunately for the future of Iraq--and Maliki--the necessity of compelling political opponents to fall into line behind the PM is of much less importance than the capacity of the government and its security forces to defeat or, at the very least, deter the armed anti-government groups. Stopping the bombers is far more critical than silencing critics.
The "great victory" of having the American combat troops leave urban areas including Mosul and Kirkuk as well as the sprawling Sadr City portion of Baghdad according to the Status of Forces Agreement reached last year is much less of an accomplishment for the government than it is an inducement for such hostile groups as Al-Qaeda in Mesopotamia. In case the PM has not noticed it, the hostiles claim that they will succeed according to the much invoked "will of Allah."
Prayers, declarations and other such attempts to either discern or motivate the decision of the deity are of far less utility in the countering of violence and the protection of citizens' lives than is the capacity to shoot first, straighter, and faster. The US combat troops demonstrated a clear superiority over the hostiles during the past two years. The years which saw violence drop faster than a Republican forgets his marriage vows were the years of maximum effective employment of American intelligence, mobility, and firepower.
The hostiles, the gun-thugs, the seekers after "martyrdom" who were not killed or captured by the American troops were sufficiently deterred by the negative possibilities of encountering the often maligned Americans to seek less risky ways of passing their time and conforming to the perceived "will of Allah." That those dangerous days are over is evident in the noise of bombs and the wailing of the injured.
Iraq is now the possession of the Iraqis and the government which they elected in a process which constituted the most open, transparent, and honestly conducted exercise in democracy in the history of the Mideast outside of Israel. Whether well-advised or not, the Status of Forces Agreement has been signed and is being implemented.
The meticulous care with which the US has implemented it as well as the delicate way in which the US has treated the political sensibilities of Maliki and his investment in the "great victory" are a credit to the mature way in which the administration is pursuing the necessary endgame strategy. Over the past several years, in all the weary months since President George W. Bush prematurely announced "Mission accomplished," the US has cleared the decks so that Iraq does belong to the Iraqis.
It is up to them and them alone to determine whether or not the blood, death, and devastation which marked the end of the Saddam Hussein period will bring about a long, peaceful, and prosperous period or not. Should Iraq energetically disassemble into warring factions whose pursuit of power is punctuated by suicide and roadside bombs, it will be their choice--and not ours.
No one should expect Iraq to be as tranquil as Switzerland nor should its politics be expected to be any more fair and honest than, say, that of Chicago. Tranquility may come over time. Honest elections may someday emerge. Whether they do or not is not the affair of the US.
We have done what we must to clean the mess our unnecessary, unjustifiable, and perhaps ultimately counterproductive adventure in regime change created. Our money, our troops' blood and death, bought the time and political space necessary so that Iraqis might create their own vision of politics, society, and economics.
As the days count down to Magic Day Number Two, the date next year when all (well, almost all) of our forces depart Iraq, there is little we can do to assure the best possible outcome. Iraq might benefit from further training for its military and security forces. It will benefit from the influx of US and other Western oil companies in the development and improvement of its oil fields. The movement of other investments into the country cannot but be of assistance.
Beyond that, on issues such as will Maliki become closer to Saddam in his style of government or will Iraq crumble before the mass of Islamist jihadist pressure and subversion on the part of Iran, there is not much we can do. Or should.
The lessons of history demonstrate that nations cannot be built by outsiders. Outsiders cannot, as Woodrow Wilson once vowed, "teach them to elect good men." Outsiders cannot assure tranquility and prosperity eternal.
Regardless of what happens now in Iraq, the Obama administration and We the People must remember that Iraq is now the bed the Iraqis make. We will have to let them lie on it in peace (or not.)
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