That's right. Consider how the Saudis will no longer be able to support the march of Wahhibism, the growth of Islam, the life styles of the rich and (in)famous princes of the House of Sand. And, while you are at it, consider the dire straits in which Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, even Iraq, and--gasp--Iran will be in if the West, or, perish the thought, China, decreases dependency on Mideast oil.
Bad news confronts the Saudis all around. It was bad enough when Russian production figures showed that the Land of Putin had surpassed the Kingdom as the number one oil exporter in the world. True the numbers are for one month--September--but the handwriting is on the sand. Then there is the possibility that the Russians have continued the old Soviet practice of juggling numbers to inflate the results.
Worse news came from the preliminary climate change talks in Bangkok. The Saudi delegation came to believe that possibly, just maybe, well, there is a chance, that the developed and largest developing economies would actually agree to cut carbon dioxide emissions. This sort of horrid possibility might, just might, mean a lowering of oil use.
Hybrid cars are bad enough. Saudis gnash their teeth over the increasing popularity and decreasing cost of these gas saving abominations. Along with gnashing their teeth, the Saudis muttered threats against the US dollar, hinting for a few days that they would seek another currency on which to base oil prices. That particular bit of coercion did not last long.
As the Bangkok talk fest came to an end, the Saudis shifted from waving the metaphorical scimitar to begging for alms. Blowing off a report by the International Energy Agency which concluded the Saudis along with the other oil principalities would still make out like narco-traffickers despite demand contraction, the capo of the Saudi delegation, Mohammad al-Sabban, averred the Kingdom would need foreign aid.
That's right, bucko, the Saudi had the unmitigated gall to demand a gratuity from all of us to offset the presumed loss of nineteen billion bucks a year starting in 2012. Mr al-Sabban allowed as how the Saudis were beavering away trying to diversify their economy, but, he commented ruefully, "We don't have many resources."
It's enough to make a fellow cry. Thinking about all those poor sheiks, importunate imams, impoverished princes, starving camels. What about all those fine Islamist outreach programs around the world which have been generously funded by Saudi origin petrodollars? What about the assorted Warriors of Wahhibism around the world? Who will keep up the maintenance of the mosques of Mecca if the bucks slow from the current torrent to a mere trickle?
It is a bit difficult to work up sympathy for the Saudis--or any of the oil producing states of the Mideast, or, to be honest, Latin America or Africa. When the amount of money which has flowed into these places is considered, one question follows automatically: What has happened to all the loot?
Rather than address this sort of inquiry, the Mr Sabban instead alleged that the West was pursing a hostile agenda, attacking the oil producing states under the cover of protecting the planet. He accused the political leadership of the West (presumably including the US) of "reducing their dependence on foreign oil."
Fair so far, Mr Sabban.
Not content at belaboring the self-evident, the shrewd Saudi added, "That means you will transfer the burden to developing countries, especially those highly dependent upon the exploitation of oil."
Well, isn't that just a bloody shame, Mr Sabban.
One might be excused for wondering whether or not the Saudis (and the other oil powered autocracies) have any memory whatsoever, or simply a highly selective one. As a good, down home Saudi Mr Sabban should remember how his country ramrodded the twin oil embargoes of the Seventies. At the time, assorted Saudis and other Arabs invoked the name of Allah and the bounty of his blessings as they employed what was called, "the oil weapon."
While the "oil weapon" did not bring the anticipated political victory over the US, the West, and Israel, it did have two results. One was a new emphasis on conservation, which proved astonishingly successful. The other was the creation of enormous sovereign wealth funds, which, in the fullness of time, scarfed up vast holdings of real estate, stock and bond portfolios, and other forms of investment in the US and the rest of the West.
The conservation measures undertaken in the US and Europe as well as the development of better techniques of oil and natural gas recovery which provided alternatives to the Mideast sources should have alerted the Saudis and their Arab brethren that the day would come when the oil no longer flowed--or was no longer needed. Awash in money, neck deep in investments, the oligarchies of the several oil sheikdoms ignored both the future and the needs of the less well positioned in their own countries.
Perhaps it is the insulated luxury in which the Saudi and other aristocrats live, perhaps it is the nature of Islam with its "if Allah wills" component, perhaps it is simply the expectable short-sighted nature of humans generally, but whatever the reason, the Mideast oildoms made no plans for the future, for the day when either the oil itself or the demand for oil slowed and halted. The Bangkok conference must have rung a loud alarm in the heads of the Saudis.
The future has arrived. And, the Saudis among others don't like it. They don't like it because they have made no preparations for the emerging reality.
Too bad. It couldn't happen to a more deserving bunch.
The strongest single reason to support carbon reduction measures has nothing to do with the somewhat questionable science of anthropogenic climate change. Rather it has everything to do with restoring American diplomatic autonomy. Every reduction in the need for oil from the Mideast, or Africa, or Latin America provides an incremental increase in our freedom to act in the world.
Additionally, every dollar that does not go to the oildoms of the Mideast is a dollar which will not be spent in support of Islamism or jihadism. It is a dollar which will not be spent to counter the national and strategic interests of either the US or any close ally. It is a dollar which will not, perhaps quite literally, blow up in our faces.
If the House of Saud or any of the other oil oligarchies are fearful now that the future is upon them and they are quite unprepared for that brutal fact, well, it is not that warning was not given. The demand for "compensation" is not only outrageous in nature, it is unsupportable in fact.
The Saudi king who announced thirty-six years ago that Allah had given the Arabs a sovereign weapon when oil was bestowed upon the Mideast should have known that all weapons can be turned against those who first wield them. This is happening right now with the consequences of the global Great Recession. It will happen to an even greater extent if and when the developed and major developing economies decide to shift from hydrocarbon prime movers to alternatives.
One can be forgiven for looking forward with a fair measure of schadenfreuden to the future when the Saudis can look on as the pumps fall silent and the paint once again peels from the walls of the Great Mosque.
It is, after all, the Will of Allah.
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