In the Afghanistan theater of operations (which on occasion resembles a theater of the absurd) the voting is that of a contested nature. OK, it should not surprise anyone oriented as to time and place that Karzai's crowd stole the election. It is unfortunate that so many Americans and others in the West ignore the commonality of fraud, election theft, ballot box stuffing, and other related peccadilloes throughout the world. (Heck, leaving aside the questionable role of the SCOTUS in the 2000 election, electoral fraud was a major contributor to the 1960 presidential election right here in the good ole USA.)
The crucial factor in the Afghan elections is not contained in the question, "Did Karzai win fair and square?" Nor is to be found in the closely related query, "Will Karzai beat Abdullah Abdullah fair and square in a (so far hypothetical) runoff election?"
The critical question is actually, "What difference in the course and probable outcome of the war in Afghanistan will it make if Abullah wins?" The answer is simple, "Not much."
Abdullah will preside as has Karzai over a government which is disunited, inefficient, and riddled with corruption. None of these unpleasant realities is unique to Karzai. (Indeed, none are unique to Afghanistan or the Afghan culture.)
True, the Tajiks might enjoy more of the blessings(?) of power and closeness to the money stream. Equally true, some of the Pashtuns displaced at least temporarily from access to money and power may show their displeasure by uniting with their fellow Pashtuns in the Taliban. Neither of these developments will either aid or hinder the US and its allies in the task of militarily subduing the Glorious Warriors of the One True Faith.
The only possible impact the election of Abdullah might have on the course of events in Afghanistan is with respect to Pakistan. The Tajiks were the majority of the anti-Taliban oriented Northern Alliance. The Pakistani memory regarding such things runs long and deep. There is little reason to believe that an Abdullah presidency will have any real, positive impact upon Islamabad--and particularly on the Directorate of Inter-Services Intelligence. When Abdullah was foreign minister in the Karzai government, his ministrations had no good effect on the movers and shakers of ISI, the Pakistani government, or Army.
A further complication which might well ensue upon an Abdullah victory in the proposed runoff comes from his deficiencies as a politician Afghan style. The lack of personal charisma, personal appeal, magnetism and charm was the main reason the US chose Karzai as "our man in Kabul."
One of the implications of Karzai's personal skills exists in his capacity as a deal maker. This, of course, is one of the main things we have against him and his fraudulent election now. He made deals then and now. Back then, the US, the UN, and all the other outsiders liked his style. Over the ensuing years, his deal making orientation caused us and all the rest to see him increasingly as an undesirable fountainhead of corruption and, (perish the thought) potential maker of a separate peace with Taliban and the other Islamist jihadist groups.
Politics in Afghanistan has always come in one of two forms. The lesser form is that of a ruthless central authority which cozens and coerces the several antipathetic ethnic and tribal entities into a moment of unity--normally against an external threat or invader. The greater form is one of national level Let's-Make-A-Deal. In this area Karzai is superior to Abdullah.
Now take a dekko at the importance of Let's-Make-A-Deal. Every insurgency ends in two distinct phases.
The first is hostilities termination. That means simply the fighting stops. It may stop because one side sees itself being defeated. It may come because both sides are exhausted. One or both sides no longer have the political will to keep on shooting.
The second phase is conflict resolution. Unless and until the insurgency--which means both the insurgent and the status quo--reach the stage of being willing to hammer out a way of coexistence, of power-sharing, of alleviating the grievances which led to war, simple hostilities termination means a temporary armistice, not a permanent or semi-permanent peace. The nitty-gritty of conflict resolution is making deals, pure and simple. Deals must be struck, bargains made on how power is to be shared, on how money is to be apportioned, on what the basic institutions of society and polity will be.
While outsiders may be useful in achieving hostilities termination (and that is the definition of success for the US in seeking to assure the Islamist jihadists cannot claim a military victory over all of us "infidels") the outsiders are useless in achieving conflict resolution. The second, more critical stage in ending an insurgency is an insiders-only game.
Conflict resolution means quite bluntly that at some time, in some place, somebody from Kabul must sit face-to-face with Omar or his successor and make a deal. At this place and at this time the presence of outsiders is not only superfluous, it will be counterproductive.
From all reports, Karzai is better equipped to play the role of deal maker than is Abdullah. It is also important to note that Abdullah will not be a negligible quantity when deal making time comes. He knows that. Karzai knows that. The question is, "Does the Obama administration not only know that but is it willing to act on that knowledge?"
The Obama administration and other outsiders can and should play a key role in assuring that Karzai and Abdullah work together regardless of elections past or future so that both men can play their roles when conflict resolution time comes around. This may mean overlooking the irregularities of Karzai's reelection. It means going along with Karzai should he reject any negative conclusions from the Electoral Complaints Commission. It means accepting whatever "vox populi, vox dei" emerges should a runoff be held.
The Obama administration and all the other well-intentioned outsiders have to keep their collective eyes on the prize. The prize for us is that of "not-losing," of achieving hostilities termination without giving the slightest excuse for the Islamist jihadists to claim victory over the "forces of infidelity." (Memo to the administration: al-Qaeda and Taliban still declare that they and they alone "defeated" the Red Army way back when during the days of Reagan/Bush.)
Now, gang, the other vote. The Human Rights Council has once more shown the truth behind all the accusations that it, like its ill-begotten predecessor, exists only as a cudgel with which the countries of the Arab-Muslim World can bash Israel. Once more, the worthy nations of the Council led by the Arab states and ably supported by human rights champions such as Russia and the Peoples Republic of China passed a resolution which endorses the justly criticized Goldstone Reprt.
Exacerbating the sin committed against both truth and impartiality, the resolution made specific reference to Israel alone. It ignored even the mild negative comments made by Justice Goldstone and his colleagues concerning the wrongs committed by Hamas and other groups in the months and years before Operation Cast Lead.
The US opposed the resolution along with five other courageous countries. Eleven other countries abstained. Five, including the UK and France, declined even to abstain showing a degree of gutlessness which surpasses rational understanding. Twenty-five states, primarily members of the Organization of the Islamic Conference, voted in the affirmative.
Now the issue passes along to the Security Council. The US--if the POTUS is to be believed--will do whatever is necessary to block the report and its associated (or grafted on) provisions and recommendations. Presumably, this means the US will exercise its veto.
A veto in the UNSC does not mean the end of the Goldstone Report or the included demands that the International Criminal Court be invoked against Israeli governmental and military personnel. The OIC is inventive. It is persistent. And, it has potent support from at least two Great Powers (Russia and China) as well as a host of Small Powers in Africa and Latin America.
With the members of the European Union apparently afflicted by a massive case of Kick The Stubborn Israelis Around, it is not beyond the pale to think that a General Assembly move will be made to circumvent the Security Council. Nor is it unthinkable that the relevant committees of the UN will lean hard on Israel to acknowledge its nuclear arsenal--and abandon it.
While there are a number of negative potentials with the Goldstone Report, one ground truth already exists. The Obama plan for a comprehensive Mideast peace is dead in the water. Prime Minister Netanyahu has made it clear.
The "international community" or at least the UN did nothing, zero, nada, to stop the rain of rockets, mortar rounds, and other attacks conducted by Hamas from the Gaza Strip of which it has been the de facto government since it shot its way to power back in 2007. Now Justice Goldstone, his committee, the UNHRC have condemned Israel, and Israel alone, for the actions it took in legitimate self-defense.
Israel took the self-same "international community" including the UN at its collective word in 2005 when it withdrew from the Gaza Strip. The word was worthless as events proved beyond a shadow of a doubt--reasonable or otherwise.
It is totally illegitimate to expect Israel to take more "risks for peace" in the wake of the Human Rights Council's action. It is totally without foundation in the consensually accepted reality to expect Israel to look to any entity beyond its borders for defense, for protection, or even for support when the rockets fly again. No Israeli government would now be so lacking in sense as to take any action whatsoever which might increase the risks faced by the citizens of Israel.
Well, the action of the Human Rights Council was democracy in action. The majority rules. And, the Obama administration now has to face the unpleasant fact that its Mideast policy is a casualty of democracy. All of the genuflections to Muslim sensibilities, all of the distortions of history in favor of the Muslim sense of self-worth, all of the pressure on Israel regarding the "settlements" have come to nothing.
If anything the famed Obama "open hand" has emboldened the intransigence of the members of the OIC. The same "open hand" and apologies for presumed past American "sins" also emboldened countries whose interests and policies are inimical to the interests of the US. The cliched chickens have come home to roost.
Perhaps the time to grow up is upon the Nice Young Man From Chicago. The time is over for him to believe his own press releases about his greatness. The time is now for Mr Obama to accept that he is the president of a Great Power--and act like it! The time is now for an end to apologies, for explanations of how he is not George W. Bush, for "open hands." Most of the countries in the world expect the US to take a stance, a clear and consistent stance with policies which reflect that. Like us or hate us, the nations of the globe expect the US to act as a leader, to say without ambiguity what is and is not acceptable to the US. And, to carry out with deeds what we announce with words.
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