Now the factotums of the mullahs have rounded up the usual suspects. These unfortunates, who may or may not be connected with the Soldiers of God, will be subjected to the normal interrogation methods of the Revolutionary Guards and, in the fullness of time, the survivors will confess and implicate others.
That is all normal in the Islamic Republic of Iran. The rituals are so ingrained as to be stereotypical. No surprises.
The only surprise in the wake of the bombing was the absence from state television of the Grand Ayatollah Khemenei. Normally the Supreme Leader takes to the air to sermonize up a storm whenever something perturbs the the Iranian scene. He was all over TV and radio during the weeks of opposition unrest following the election fraud last June. This time he was AWOL.
The lack of reassurance and thundering denunciations directed against the malignant counter revolutionaries gives much credence to the scattered reports from the Land of the Mullahs to the effect that the Grand Ayatollah is desperately ill, perhaps comatose, maybe even dying. The state media have been silent on the rumors, neither indignantly denying them nor even, Soviet style, averring the Ayatollah had a "minor indisposition."
In the category of What-Is-Going-On-Here? an advisor to the secretary of the Iranian National Security Council has told the press in that country that there "are circumstances" which may require Iran to enrich uranium to sixty-three percent. The advisor did not vouchsafe just what reasons or "circumstances" might require enrichment to this level.
So far the centrifuges have spun the devil's metal to five percent U 235, a level suitable for use in electrical production oriented reactors (among other uses.) The Iranians have agreed, more or less, perhaps, quite possibly, to send 1.2 metric tons of their current inventory of five percent stock to Russia for enrichment to twenty percent. That is the level necessary for use in the elderly US supplied reactor which is used, according to the Iranians, for the production of radioisotopes used in medical procedures.
For use in nuclear munitions, the uranium must be enriched to well above ninety percent, the higher the better.
Why the Iranians might need sixty-three percent enriched uranium is a poser. Perhaps the advisor simply plucked the number from the vacuum. Perhaps a messenger of Allah whispered it in his ear, but there seems no real-world based reason for that number.
Or, it could be one more example of institutional confusion within the Iranian government. The record shows the mullahs and their wallahs are often afflicted with a lack of left hand-right hand coordination.
Most likely it is another small move in the predictable Iranian game of introducing confusion in the context surrounding international negotiations. In the past the Tehran minions have shown a real genius for tossing contradictory statements, conflicting requirements, and alternating threats with protestations of peaceful intent all with the apparent goal of keeping their interlocutors off balance.
In any event the Iranians seem to be winning one more time with their fun, fantasy, confusion, and chaos approach to international relations. The West, or at least the P5+1, seems content with the Iranian's seeming commitment to send uranium to Russia and thence to France for final fabrication into fuel rods. The International Atomic Energy Agency, or at least its outgoing Chairman, seems quite pleased with the Iranian's promise to cooperate one more time with the inspection regime which will now include the formerly secret enrichment facility.
SecState Clinton has warned the Iranians not to dither over the details of the agreement for outsourcing uranium enrichment. She animadverted any delay would prove costly to the regime. Her play was accompanied by a solemn statement by the EU ForMin, Solano, to the effect that the world will not accept a nuclear weapons equipped Iran.
Well, everybody played their expected roles in Vienna. The Iranians, the West, SecState Clinton, ForMin Solano, the IAEA. Time has been bought--maybe. But, for what purpose?
The script is different for different players when it comes to the purpose. For the West, it now looks like a year or so has been purchased during which something more permanent might be worked out with the Tehran regime. For that regime it means more time during which more centrifuges, both declared and otherwise, might be set to spinning without fear that bombs might start falling.
Buy time and hope for the best--now that is real recipe for creative, forward looking foreign policy. It is a real prescription for attaining the Obama goal of a world without nuclear weapons.
The Geek fearlessly predicted that when push came to shove both Russia and China would make sure the Security Council did nothing with the infamous Human Rights Council resolution further perverting the already less-than-evenhanded Goldstone Report. China has now made clear that it would assure the Security Council would not refer the matter to the International Criminal Court.
That was an easy prediction to make. China (and Russia) is very, very sensitive to matters of national sovereignty and defense. Considering that the Chinese tend to be very robust in protecting the structural and territorial integrity of regime and country, the mandarins would be quite loath to establish any precedent which might someday, in some way, restrict their freedom of action. The Kremlin is no more willing than Beijing to see action limiting precedents established. So, it is no surprise that neither Power is willing to do other than join with the US in blocking any meaningful action on the UNHRC resolution or the underlying report.
The final piece of drearily predictable action (or words) comes from President Obama. He allowed on MSNBC (AKA Obama-Is-The-One network) that he may make a troop decision before the final outcome of the scheduled 7 November presidential runoff election is known. He also said that the decision might not be announced. Well, whowie-zowie! How's that for a good, clear presidential statement?
Considering that the decision has to be made sooner rather than later as it takes time to get troops moving--or to properly prepare the public for a unilateral declaration of defeat, the time sensitivity is self-evident. At the same time, as it is equally self-evident that the needs of the US as regards both national and strategic interest is separable from the composition of the Afghan government, there is no need, no requirement, that a "legitimate" (at least from the perspective of Washington) be in place in Kabul.
Our only real national or strategic interest in play over there is the ability of the Islamist jihadists to claim military victory over us as they have with the Red Army back in pre-Taliban days. Anything else from the status of women in the country to the amount of opium produced or the nature of the central government (if any) is of diminishing importance. All that matters is that the US inflict a sufficient number of losses on both Taliban and al-Qaeda that neither is in a position to offer a threat to the US or its allies in the near- to mid-term. The necessary penumbra surrounding that centrality is to provide no possible basis for a later claim by the Koran toting thugs of jihad that they had forced the US out of the place, that they had won.
To assure that will require more troops. That is axiomatic.
If the president makes the choice to impose a unilateral defeat on the US in the manner that Congress did during the end period of the War in Vietnam, then he needs to say so now in order to limit the political damage before the next election comes to pass.
One thing for sure, it is neither necessary nor desirable for Mr Obama to play some sort of updated version of "I've got a secret" regarding his decision. It is akin to hiding a rhinoceros under a tablecloth.
Give that sort of bushwa a rest, Mr Obama. You should be too grown-up to play that kind of game.
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