Big Shock--Iran Does A Sideslip

To the surprise of no person well oriented as to time and place the mullahs are trying to wiggle out of the "done deal" with the P5+1 in Vienna. Brokered by the IAEA the deal would have had Iran send most of their low enriched uranium to Russia for enrichment to twenty percent, the level required for the old US provided reactor used by Tehran for the production of "medical isotopes." After enrichment the fuel would have been forwarded to France for fabrication into fuel rods not susceptible to further enrichment.

The UN sponsored agreement was seemingly favored by Iran which sent the typical encouraging words at Vienna while saying the opposite back home. By the Friday deadline the governments of the US, France, and Russia had all signed off officially on the deal. The Iranians said they needed more time--even though they leaned toward acceptance.

The Obama administration reportedly responded with mild disappointment to this development. If the Deep Thinkers and Global Strategists of the White House and Foggy Bottom are mildly disappointed about the delay, what do they think of the apparent counterproposal out of Tehran? The word from Iran is that the regime now wants to buy twenty percent enriched uranium from abroad while keeping their low enrichment stockpile safely at home.

An unnamed "diplomat" appeared on the state run PRESS TV to aver that the world powers should accept this "confidence building" proposal and that "they should avoid past mistakes in violating agreements and try to win the trust of the Iranian nation." It is hard to decide whether to laugh or simply shake the head in dismay.

Dismay?

Yes, dismay that anyone might have thought the Iranians would actually go forward with the deal to which they had initially agreed after several days of tough talk and sundry palaver. It would have been a shock of seismic proportions had the mullahs and their factotums actually gone along with the agreement without any attempts to stall, buy time, test political will within the assorted capitals of the P5+1, or in some other fashion undercut or enervate the agreement.

Even more dismaying is the thought that any person involved with the negotiations or within the policy formation groups behind them would have believed that a decision with the implications of that calling for the shipment of 1.2 metric tons of low enriched uranium would be made with the Grand Ayatollah Khamenei apparently out of service. With the grand supremo perhaps hovering in the anteroom to the next life, who is in charge in Iran? Who would dare make a final decision absent the imprimatur of the Chosen Voice of Allah (or the Hidden Imam, take your pick?)

There are divisions within both the secular government and the clerical establishment on the nuclear question among others. These divisions are no reason to hope for a significant modification in the country's international (or internal) behavior. If anything the splits will force a harder stance by the most hardline individuals in the regime. The use of internal factionation to justify harder lines and more resolute stances under pressure is a historically honored practice by authoritarian regimes.

If the Obama administration was prepared for the Iranian reaction it would be both welcome and far more unexpected than was the latest version of the Tehran shuffle. If the administration was expecting a move of this nature, the probable counter will be a firm and swift denial of the gambit. The French and British will join in highest likelihood. The Russians will council patience as will the Chinese. The Germans will swing either way depending on the political mood du jour.

The mullahs and their frontmen will then pin the tail of blame on the Great Satan and its companions. They will then offer--with appropriate gestures of magnanimity--to continue the talks in Vienna or somewhere.

The Chinese will agree immediately. The Russians, their noses slightly bent out of place by the Tehran rejection, will take a bit longer but go along with more talk.

The Germans will stick a wet finger into the political winds. The French will most probably hang tough. The Brits will wait to see how Obama and company respond.

The administration will again be divided as it has been all along (and as it is on Afghanistan) between the hawks such as SecState Clinton and the doves such as National Security Advisor Jones. Veep Biden will talk more or less tough while leaning hard to the dove side. President Obama will, as has usually been the case, try to stay above the fray as time rushes on.

The internationalist minded, multi-culturally inclined people at the top will once more offer the open hand and the open mind. Time will continue to march on as the centrifuges both announced and otherwise continue to spin.

It has been reported that the Israelis are anxiety ridden. They have good reason to reach for either the big bottle of tranks or the operational plans for an attack on Iran--no matter how unlikely to succeed and likely to be the cause of a world of hurt for the US--and the globe.

The Israelis are right to be worried. And, they are not alone.