Today the big talk is about how the US (and, of course, the obbligato "allies") will be relentless in the pursuit of al-Qaeda and other "extremist" networks. As the necessary codicil the Nice Young Man From Chicago averred that there would be no "safe havens."
The President delivered his strong dose of oratory at the National Counterterrorism Center as part of a high visibility pump-up-the-presidential-street-cred visit to the boys and girls of the "Bat Cave" who toil, he animadiverted, in the shadows doing unrecognized but critical work assuring the basic products needed to both defend the nation and, (presumably) through offensive operations, "disrupt, dismantle and defeat" the icky-poo "extemists."
Leaving aside that the threat to the US and other members of the civilized world is not presented by some sort of hazy cloud called "extremists" or even by a pair of identifiable thunderclouds over the global picnic, al-Qaeda and Taliban, but rather by a very large squall line, Islamist jihadism, what was missing? The Geek is sure no hint is needed.
What's missing is action. What's missing is leadership which transcends one more parcel of fine sounding words spewed in a perfect photo-op setting.
There has been an increase in some forms of action--the greater use of UAV delivered attacks on leaders and facilities of Taliban and al-Qaeda in the FATA of Pakistan is one example. The recent high-profile special operations force attack on a valuable target in Somalia is another.
These positive signs are but straws in the hurricane--a not overwhelmingly useful indicator of wind direction. The UAV attacks have significantly degraded the capacity for high effectiveness operations on the part of Taliban. They have discommoded the jihadists of both al-Qaeda and Taliban. They have decreased the morale and increased the anxiety level of at least some of the Glorious Warriors of Allah.
Nice. To be applauded. But, absent a a definite enhancement of the American capacity to carry the war to the enemy in Afghanistan (and, at least implicitly, elsewhere) not noteworthy.
To put it bluntly, the net effect of the UAV strikes and the special forces raid in Somalia is no greater, no more decisive, no more of a death blow to the Islamist jihadists then were the infamous cruise missile attacks so beloved by the lawyers of the Clinton administration. Those mediagenic cruise missile thuds were ultimately counterproductive. At the end of the day the effect was to stimulate recruiting, enhance political will, and generally embolden and encourage the Islamist jihadists and those entities (including state actors) who stood in the background, ready, willing, able, and even eager to provide a helping hand.
The same dynamic is at work with the Obama administration's talk-but-don't-really-do-something approach. It is (barely) possible that the impact of the UAV strikes has perturbed the jihadist's version of command and control in the FATA sufficiently that the Pakistani army might feel up to the task of actually going into the Waziristans on the ground and perhaps even gaining some measure of palpable presence there. However, unless the Pakistani military does something it has never done before--move fast, hard, and consistently--there is little probability that its long awaited "offensive" will do anything other than squeeze the bad guys from one area to another. And, of course, annoy them a bit.
The real deal is that "disrupting, dismantling, and defeating" Islamist jihadist entities requires taking the war to them, up close and personal. The brutal ground truth of the war against these bearded Koran thumpers is that they must be killed. That is the nature of war against True Believers.
True Believers gain their personal identity, their sense of worth, their very meaning from accepting the dictates of the Belief. Their minds are not changeable. They are not to be weaned from the nourishing breast of Belief by propaganda or by full employment schemes or by addressing grievances. The True Believers are not to be swayed by theological arguments or appeals to scripture, or by exhortations from clerics.
True Believers must be killed. The history of human conflict is laden with examples of True Believers, of innumerable True Beliefs both religious and secular. The commonalities are twofold: True Believers will die before abandoning the Belief; True Believers are defeated only through death.
There are many people who hang on the fringes of the True Believers. There are many people who accept some of the Belief, but not all. Many who take some measure of comfort, identity, meaning, and worth from the Belief. There are many who cover their more personal grievances or needs with the cloth of the Belief.
These, the Lesser Believers, can be weaned from the hard core True Believers through a combination of pressure and inducement. The softer fringe can be pried away through reforms, through economic inducements. The Lesser Believers can be demoralized by continuous anxiety, by persistent discomfort, by attrition both physical and psychological. This has been demonstrated time after time in the struggles between insurgent and counterinsurgent which mark the history of the past several centuries.
The right mixture of hammer and wrench (a handy tool, since it turns things around) is critical to ultimate success in the dance of death which is insurgency. But, the civil, economic, political, and other reforms are not enough. These leave the True Believer unmoved, unwilling, indeed, unable to pack it in.
The True Believer must be killed.
The reality that both the peeling away of the Lesser Believers from those of sterner stuff and the killing of True Believers requires war of the close range sort is unpleasant. It is distasteful. It is repugnant. It remains, however, the historically sanctioned basis of countering an insurgency.
It is a reality which General McChrystal accepts. It is probably one which Secretary of Defense Robert Gates accepts as well even as he chides the general for having said so in public. It is not at all certain that the President accepts--or is even capable of accepting it.
If the Nice Young Man From Chicago understood and accepted the requirements of victory against what he euphemistically calls "extremists," he would not be engaged in endless "high level"talks about strategy in Afghanistan and its neighbor. He would not be sitting in the center as the "extremes" of his own administration palaver about what to do. He wouldn't be on the hustings at the Bat Cave telling all hands there how he read their "product" just about every day.
If Mr Obama had a firm grip on reality he would be moving swiftly to approve the deployment of more troops to the theater. He would be explaining to We the People what was at stake in that far away and throughly unpleasant corner of the world. He would be sitting hard on the Progressive Caucus, which has already shown the unmitigated gall to pull a Vietnam endgame move--sponsored a bill to prohibit the spending of money on any increase in troop strength in Afghanistan.
As the Geek has written many, many times before, he is not in favor of war. Indeed, he is a profound emotional pacifist, having no desire to have any American go through the damnation of war. But, when war is forced upon us as it has been by the Islamist jihadists, then there is no alternative but to defeat the enemy.
This means more Americans will have to face the hazards of war. It means more will be killed. More will be wounded. More will spend years facing demons within.
That is the reality. To assure some probability of a future without the constant threat of some Koran waving wannabe martyr blowing himself (and a lot of us) to small protoplasmic fragments, Americans have to carry the war to the True Believers. We must "convert" those of the Lesser Believers willing to do so. Most of all, we must kill those who will not "convert."
No amount of technology can change that. No success by UAV strikes, or nifty little one off special operation can do that. When night finally falls on the Islamist jihadists, it will be due to the efforts and sacrifices of our people on the ground, the people who take the war into the enemy's face.
No amount of talk can alter the reality confronting us in Afghanistan and elsewhere. The President cannot orate his way around the reality. Fine words will not save a single drop of American blood.
Words without effective and resolute deeds will only cost us more anxiety, more risks. And, a lot more blood.
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