At the same time PM Singh can play the "USA card" against both the Chinese and the Pakistanis. To work, the game must be one of mutual manipulation for mutual benefit.
India has a very real foreign policy problem in the expansion of Chinese interests throughout Southeast Asia. This comes on top of the conundrums presented by the steadily increasing Chinese interest and presence in both Pakistan and Afghanistan.
A new add on in the diplomatic challenges presented India by the Chinese is the almost explosive growth of Chinese influence in Eastern and Southern Africa. India has had a long standing interest in those regions as a consequence of the large ethnic Indian communities which exist as a permanent and not always welcome legacy of the British Empire. Economic as well as ethinic, religious, and historical ties assure that the Indian government cannot be immune to the potentials as well as difficulties presented by these indigestible lumps in the African (often Muslim) stew.
India has domestic problems as well as those of foreign affairs. Some of those seemingly "internal" difficulties such as terror attacks in the Kashmir (to say nothing of outrages such as that in Mumbai a year back) have a clear foreign dimension. Others, such as the simmering "Maoist" insurgency or the long running defensive insurgency in Assam may have some degree of foreign connection.
Most of India's domestic problems are of a purely "made-in-India" nature. Most have been apparent in their development since before Independence sixty-two years ago. Most center on two structural features of Indian life--population and asymmetrical economic development and its twin, inequitable wealth distribution.
The rapid and, in many, major ways, skewed Indian economic development of the past three decades brings another set of problems--and coinciding interests. India and the US can, for example, "gang up" on China in the area of global warming mitigation efforts. As another example the two governments can do the same with respect to the continuation of the US dollar as global reserve currency.
In the latter area it is interesting to note that PM Singh said there was no realistic alternative to the dollar in that role just before embarking on his Washington trip. Nothing like a clear, public signal of intent, is there?
The Big Enchilada of the meeting will be AfPak. There is no matter of greater concern to PM Singh or the majority of Indians than that of Pakistan. The fear and loathing of the Pakistani government and military is and always has been palpable in India. While China is a longer term and far more formidable challenge than Pakistan, the latter has been the cause of several wars and the force seen behind terroristic groups from Kashmir to Mumbai and New Delhi.
The American led invasion of Afghanistan opened a new strategic theater in the region for the Indians to exploit. Their presence (unarmed with anything more lethal than money) has grown almost exponentially the past several years much to the alarm of Islamabad.
The Pakistanis have (with some real justification) seen the growing Indian presence and influence in Kabul as a species of airborne invasion of a territory which has long been considered by Pakistani military, intelligence, and political officials as their strategic depth--if not something greater. The Indians are no slouches when it comes either to reading a map or exploiting fleeting opportunities.
The Indian government and military entertains legitimate apprehension that in its apparent rush to an "exit strategy," the Obama administration will genuflect too much to the Pakistanis, grant the Pakistanis too much real or pretended influence in Afghanistan. In short, that the Obama "progressives" will recapitulate the same mistake made by the Reagan administration twenty and more years ago.
The Indian government back then did try to make their fears known to the administration but were ignored, unceremoniously blown off. Of course, at that time as for decades before various left-tilting Indian "neutralist" governments had made the country and its interests anathema in Washington by continuously behaving as if members of the "Socialist Camp."
Those days are long gone. India is a rapidly developing free market economy with a democratic process which works reasonably well all factors considered. As the nuclear technology deal made (at great political cost to and effort by PM Singh) between India and the W. Bush administration makes clear, there are core interests and stances shared by the US and the "world's largest democracy."
Now the Indians want assurances, credible guarantees that the US is not about to cut and run from Afghanistan to the advantage of Pakistan and the necessary and equal disadvantage of New Delhi. In a similar vein the Indian PM will want (demand?) a credible pledge that future military aid provided Pakistan will not be of a sort easily diverted to employment against India.
PM Singh will also be anxious to gain enough of an understanding with Mr Obama to be reasonably sure that the two countries can work together to limit Chinese influence both in Afghanistan and Pakistan. In return the Prime Minister will be willing to horsetrade both on climate mitigation commitments and global economic/bilateral trade issues.
If both President and PM (and all the support wallahs) are sufficiently open and honest (strange as that stipulation might seem in diplomatic dancing) there is a lot of room open for the sort of mutual manipulation, deal-making, and so on to achieve progress on most of the coinciding issues before us including both Pakistan and Afghanistan. There is, however, one question which is not being either asked or answered in the pundits and reporters both here and in India.
Here it is--
Will, Mr Obama given his utter disinterest in foreign affairs (to say nothing of his abysmal ignorance of both history and dynamics as such are part and parcel of foreign policy) be able to rip himself away from the healthcare overhaul and other aspects of the rapidly failing "Great Transformational Agenda" to stay awake, focused, and on message for the four day event?
Well, bucko, the Geek ain't about to bet the ranch on the answer being positive.
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