Thursday, November 12, 2009

Travel Tips For The President

President Obama is off for a week in Asia. Along the way he will meet and butt heads with the jefes grandes of several key countries including Japan, South Korea, and China. Since the Nice Young Man From Chicago is both new at this sort of thing and is given to set piece speeches rather than interactions--and because he seems to have a reflexive need to apologize, the Geek with his customary modesty offers a few tips for the President Who Wishes Foreign Affairs Would Just Go Away.

Mr President, there is no need to apologize to Japan for (A) The Open Door Policy (remember that's the one which made eventual war between Japan and the US over the Empire's actions in China the next thing to inevitable); (B) The inconsiderate nature of FDR and the US Navy in parking all those darn battleships in neat rows at the 1010 Dock just inviting an unannounced Japanese attack; (C) The zeal, ferocity, and skill with which the US fought and defeated Japan in our private little part of World War II; (D) Using the atomic bomb on two Japanese cities (after all without the use of the bomb the war would have been far more deadly to both Japanese and American participants while, at the same time, the American public would not allow the Truman administration simply to blockade the islands and wait for starvation and disease to kill enough civilians so that the Imperial government would toss in the towel).

Mr President, there is no need to apologize to the Koreans--both North and South--for either the haphazard way in which the State-War-Navy Coordinating Committee divided Korea along the 38th parallel. Likewise there is no need to say, "We're sorry," for Secretary of State Dean Acheson having failed to include South Korea on the American side of the line dividing the US from the Soviet spheres of influence although this oversight played a strong role in the approval of the Northern invasion by noted humanitarian and far-sighted statesman, Joseph Stalin.

There is also no need to apologize for the US and thus the UN having terminated hostilities in Korea via an armistice rather than a peace treaty. Neither the Communist Chinese nor the North Koreans were willing to do this, so why should the US and the South Koreans? Sure, the armistice made for a half century and more of conflict between the two Koreas, but it was the only viable option at the time. And, progress toward a permanent peace has been blocked far more by Pyongyang than Seoul during the past forty or so years.

Now, Mr President, don't go apologizing for American support of Chiang kai Shek over Mao during and after World War II. It was a good Democrat, FDR, who made the crucial decision in the first place even though our military commander in the region, Joe Stillwell, let FDR know in clear terms that Chiang was corrupt, brutal, inefficient, and not given to effective fighting against either the Japanese or his Communist opponents. At the same time the picture from both State Department and OSS personnel was quite positive to Mao and equally negative on the Nationalists.

After the war the Republicans (who you don't particularly like) in the China Lobby made diddly darn certain that the US would continue to pump aid to the ChiNats of Chiang. The Truman administration was excoriated brutally for not sending troops, and its attempts at political defense were unavailing. The Chinese intervention in the Korean War made it impossible for a more realistic appraisal of our relations with the "Two Chinas."

You, Mr President, know what politics and political fighting can be like, so no harm, no need for apology. At least not to the Chinese.

Apologies might be in order to the American public for the decisions made by your predecessors, Clinton and W. Bush. The trade liberalization with China so eagerly pimped by Mr Clinton and expanded (for different ideological reasons) by W. Bush has cost the US five million or more jobs, and, simultaneously provided China with the wherewithal to become a major military and diplomatic power. Sure, the lower cost of Chinese goods may have lowered costs to the consumer--but at what long term expense?

Keeping in the economic vein, it might be appropriate to apologize to the Chinese for your administration's efforts to keep the dollar "strong" and, therefore, the yuan "weak." If you were to follow your "apology" with actions designed to "weaken" the dollar and "strengthen" the yuan, the results might be good for the US.

Letting the dollar float, or, quite probably, go into a short duration free-fall would be good for all hands. It would lower the US trade deficit. It would lessen the Chinese (potential) leverage on our foreign policy by threatening to "dump" some of its trillion bucks in US Treasury Bills and Notes. Conceivably, it might move some manufacturing jobs back to the US.

With the sole exception of the dollar-yuan issue, Mr President, apologies ill befit an American president. Apologies are generally perceived in most of the world at both the popular and governmental levels as a sign of weakness. Whether you or any of your fellow "progressives" are enamored with the idea or not, the US is a Great Power.

Great Powers, and particularly the US, must take clear policy stands, stick to them, and act according to them in a predictable and consistent manner. Other powers, both Great and lesser, can then decide how they are going to respond to the US policies--whether, for example, to go along with them or oppose them.

You see, Mr President, a willingness--a perceived eagerness--such as you have exhibited to apologize for past American policies indicates a basic uncertainty on your part as to the American place in the world. It implies an inability to lead. It even implies a willingness to resign Great Power status.

The last time this happened in American history was in the wake of the Vietnam debacle and the Watergate Affair. Both Presidents Ford and Carter were seen as weak and vacillating with results which emboldened enemies ranging from Moscow to Tehran. Given the state of the globe today neither the US nor the rest of the world can afford another period of perceived irresolution on the part of the occupant of the Oval Office.

Being a Great Power does not mean that policy mistakes have not been made or that they will not be made in the future. But, being a Great Power requires never saying "We're sorry."

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