A Whole Lot Of Muscle Flexing Going On

North Korea, Iran, and Venezuela are all doing a bunch of chest pounding, bicep flexing, posturing, and dire threat uttering over the past twenty-four hours. It appears as if brinksmanship which was once limited to large, reasonably rational states has become the province of small countries whose leadership has a less than firm grip on the realities of power or the ways in which the international political system operates.

Not to be left in the dust the Saudi Arabians have been making belligerent noises of their own. The Iranian and Saudi chest thumping is over Yemen. The goal of Tehran is twofold. First, it wants to continue its campaign of tergiversation over its role in the Houthi insurgency. Second, it hopes to further its interests against those of Saudi Arabia not only in Yemen but in the Persian Gulf.

Given the motivations it is not surprising that the Iranian foreign minister, Mottaki, is claiming the role of "peace maker" by warning against "outside" interference on the part of Saudi Arabia. It is quite true that Saudi Arabia has been hoisted by its own petard in that it cut a deal with the Houthi only to have the insurgents take far more than the Saudi government wanted. As a result of the Houthi's ungentlemanly behavior, the Kingdom has resorted to force.

To date the force has been delivered from a discrete distance. The employment of fighter bombers against an opponent lacking air defense capacities might have limited effectiveness but it makes up for this by placing the brave warriors of the Kingdom at low risk. There is not even a great risk that the UN Human Rights Council will get its self het up since the Saudis are not the automatic villains that the Israelis are.

Over time the Kingdom's air offensive may prove to be offensive to the outside world since the ability of bombs to discriminate between honest-to-Allah insurgents and the surrounding civilian population is zilch. But, unless and until that happens, the Saudis are at complete liberty to bomb away. Heck, the Kingdom is even being supported in its invader suppression mission by al-Qaeda.

With such widespread support at home and the potential for the conflict to spill across the border at any time in the future, there is no doubt but Saudi Arabia will both continue its air operations (now joined by a naval blockade of Yemen's Red Sea coast) but might even take the unprecedented move of sending ground forces into Yemen. The Iranians cannot deter this eventuality should the Kingdom decide it is necessary for reasons either foreign or domestic. A continuation of veiled and not so veiled menace from Tehran is perhaps the best possible way to assure that the House of Sand will send a ground force into Houthi-land.

The posturing of Hugo Chavez is even more likely to be counterproductive. So far the Colombian government of President Uribe has responded to the Mouth of the South with statesmanlike restraint, limiting itself to seeking support from the UN and the Organization of American States. Venezuela in its turn has escalated the rhetoric calling the Colombian action "hypocritical" and "immoral."

Along with that oratorical flourish Chavez has warned President Obama not to make the mistake of ordering an invasion of Venezuela from Columbia. Hugo, again showing his paratrooper past, thundered that his country will "never be a colony again." As if the US has either the ambition or, even if it did harbor such dreams, the troops necessary to invade Venezuela.

Chavez is, as posted yesterday, playing the game of last resort used by failing dictators time after time. Ginning up the public with the myth of impending invasion is a time honored technique to remobilize support from a disenchanted public.

What makes the Chavez version of this tired old approach dangerous is the combination of border instability and Chavez' own harping to his military commanders on the necessity of preparing for war--and preparing the public for war. In this context it would take only one overly zealous junior officer to start a war which will not be stopped either quickly or easily--even with the best efforts of the US.

As posted previously a Colombian-Venezuelan war would have the very strong potential to see a quick defeat of the Venezuelan military and a set of internal conflicts emerging in all three members of the "Bolivarian" revolutionary front. Making the role of the US more complex is the mixture of reactions throughout Latin America to the US stance on the ouster of Honduran president Zelaya. Not all governments south of the Rio Grande see the Obama administration as having been on the side of the angels in that one, even though all heads of state in the region have a deep and well justified anxiety about coups, no matter how constitutionally justifiable.

On the other side of the world, the Hermit Kingdom of North Korea tossed a bit of weight around on the Northern Limit. This line in the ocean was drawn by the UN and its interlocutors from China and North Korea as a part of the 1953 armistice which marked the termination of large scale hostilities. Pyongyang has never really accepted this line in the sea although the South Koreans have.

In 1999 and again in 2002 the North provoked naval skirmishes in the water surrounding the Northern Limit. And, they did it again yesterday.

A 200 ton North Korean patrol boat took on two smaller but infinitely more technologically competent South Korean high speed patrol craft. When the shooting (fifty rounds from the North; two hundred shots from the South) stopped, the North Korean boat was reportedly on fire and limping to a North Korean port.

Pyongyang cranked up its indignation machine within a couple of hours of the skirmish. To nobody's great surprise or alarm, the Hermit Kingdom demanded an immediate apology from Seoul for its "grave armed provocation." Ho hum.

The question, of course, is: Why?

President Obama is about to head off for a week of meetings in Asia. North Korea and its nuclear program will be high on the agenda. And, sidebar conversations with representatives of the North will undoubtedly occur during the week.

The North Koreans want something more than mere nuclear weapons. They want something they see as far more important than edibles for a starving public. They want something far more dear to the Dear Leader's heart than even his six private trains or his love of movie making.

The Hermit Kingdom of the North wants a peace treaty, favorable to them, of course, which will bring the world's longest running war to an official end. The Northern leader(s) believe, rightly or wrongly, that the US can, in the words of Capt. Jean Luc Picard, "Make it so."

The naval action on the Northern Limit was meant to remind the Nice Young Man From Chicago that the Korean War has never actually ended. That a state of armed conflict legally exists between the two Koreas. That wars, no matter how noisy or quiet they may be or seem, remain both unpredictable and, when push comes to shove, not amenable to control.

A peace treaty if on terms acceptable to the North would lead to reunification on terms of Pyongyang's chosing. It would provide a plausible means to gain by peace what could not be achieved by war. The North wants unrestricted, unfettered access to the economy and infrastructure of the South. It also wants effective political hegemony over the peninsula.

Like the Geek's long repressed want to be a multi-millionaire NBA All Star, the desires of the Hermit Kingdom of the North may be unrealizable in the real world, but that will not hinder Dear Leader's quest to achieve them. In the context of what might be gained hypothetically, a naval skirmish or even a limited border incursion is not too risky.

Fear and intimidation have long been the stock in trade of both the Dear Leader and his dad. At home they have worked quite well. From time to time these two tools have worked as well with assorted Southern governments. Who knows, the Dear Leader might be thinking, the same tried and true methods might yet work with the less than resolute American president.

And, horrible to think, Dear Leader might be right.