North Korea from an external perspective is not a failed state because it does very well at whatever the Dear Leader, Kim Jong-il, and his coterie from the military and party decide to do. It is in fact a criminal state. Not only does the state exploit the land and the people for its own advantage, its actions in the international arena are much more those of the criminal than, as Joe Biden and others have alleged, a temper tantrum given two year old with a national anthem.
The WaPo has an interesting article which advertently or otherwise provides a clear indictment of the North Korean regime as a criminal state. Along the way it identifies the usual suspect, China, as the number one accessory.
The linkage between the two countries is firm. It should be as it is based not only on the thin tissue of ideology or the almost as tenuous platform of diplomacy but upon the rock hard foundation of minerals.
North Korea has a lot of valuable minerals for which China has an insatiable need. The NKPA is an efficient miner and seller of these minerals. The value of the merchandise has risen from fifteen million dollars in 2003 to over two hundred megabucks five years later. For the North Korean state and its military, this is a nice piece of change.
And, the value may go much, much higher as the North is estimated to hold total extractable mineral reserves aggregating something on the order of six trillion dollars. Given that the North can effectively dragoon any number of shovel bums into action at the wave of Dear Leader's hand and the simple reality that China's appetite will grow rather than lessen, the probability of greatly increased commerce in the minerals market is very, very high.
The money which flows from the trade like that which comes from the sale of missiles, conventional weapons, and nuclear technology will not accrue to the benefit of North Korea's "toiling masses," (Don't you just love that Communist rhetorical term?) No. It will go to the NKPA and those who rely upon it for power.
Al Capone and the boys of the Chicago Outfit did not pass out food to the poor. Neither did they take the swag and endow hospitals or schools. No. The money which was not wasted on purely personal pleasures was spent on the boys and their necessary toys.
So it is with Dear Leader. Yes, he likes the high life as any number of anecdotes indicate. But far more than simple (and not so simple) pleasures, Dear Leader and the boys at the top want to both stay in power and, if (in)humanly possible, extend its sway.
North Korea talks defense incessantly. The Pyongyang noise machine constantly reiterates a single theme: The Capitalists Are Coming! But, the disposition of their armed forces and the rather impressive firepower it disposes show it is poised for offense.
It is true that much of North Korea's most critical military and security infrastructure is well dug in, hardened. So too are the offensive positions where some seventy percent of the NKPA is stationed within one hundred klicks of the ancient truce line--the Big Z. These fortified positions are not intended as defensive but rather as the secure launching point of an offensive of overwhelming proportions.
The South Korean capital and largest city, Seoul, as well as a very large chunk of the country's industrial base is in easy range of both tube artillery and rockets on the other side of the DMZ. The basic military doctrine of the NKPA is so offensively oriented it makes the US Marine equivalent appear rigidly defensive in comparison.
Again Al Capone and the Chicago Outfit are a decent paradigm. Like Dear Leader, Big Al believed that life was "get or get got" in nature, and the only reasonable way to deal with that reality was "the best defense is a very good offense."
Unlike President Theodore Roosevelt, the Lads in Pyongyang believe in talking loudly while waving a big stick. The waving went on as the North announced it was finished extracting the plutonium from the spent fuel rods of Yongbyong and was proceeding to weaponize the stuff.
At the same time the loud talk continued as the Hermit Kingdom of the North demanded once again that the US enter into bi-lateral talks as a precondition to reviving the moribund Six Power Talks. This attitude is a punch in the diplomatic chops for China whose jefes grandes have been urging Dear Leader et al to come back to the Six Power Table.
The goal of the North is to lever the US into slackening its commitment to South Korea, for it is only that commitment which stiffens the spine of the South against the looming intimidation coming from the big stick of the NKPA. Yes, the South Korean armed forces are impressive both in size and technology, but the capacity resident in the North for an overwhelming and highly destructive barrage gives Seoul much pause for thought.
The disposition of the Northern batteries is such that the first few minutes in an unannounced war would see damage inflicted on the highly developed and densely populated northwest of South Korea which beggars the imagination. Even without the use of chemical, biological, or nuclear weapons, the number of prompt casualties would be in the high six figures.
While the South could strike back and strike back very hard, the costs to the North would be acceptable given the potential gain of sway. The critical facilities and personnel of the North are well protected and Dear Leader and Company don't care what happens to those many, many poor schmucks who are left in the open.
All of this conspires to present the Obama administration with a pretty conundrum. Public support for our ongoing presence in Korea is mild at best. Budget constraints are great and growing greater. The US sees itself (at least at the highest levels of government) as being less and less of a unilateral actor in foreign affairs preferring to rely on the "international community."
Getting "tough" with North Korea would mean getting even more so with its protector, China, and quite possibly Russia as well. To the Obama folks this would be (to steal a word from one of the Geek's favorite TV series, The Prisoner) "unmutual." It would make for hard feelings and nasty words, and, heavens to Betsy, we can't have that, can we?
Once more it is time to invoke that old Chinese toast (and curse), "May you live in interesting times."
And, so we are.
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