Edwards Gets Something Right, Obama Stays Naive

The Geek is even handed. If John Edwards, one of the Geek's betes noirs, shows that he has a grip on something, the Geek will give him a thumbs-up.

Recently, the former Senator joined the chorus decrying the presence of Blackwater USA and similar private security companies in Iraq. He stated that if he becomes president, he would toss Blackwater et al out and replace them with US military personnel.

Bang-on, Mr Edwards!

It's too bad that you immediately discarded your grip on reality by again promising an immediate end to US combat operations in Iraq--apparently whether or not the security situation in that country merited such a step.

Well, the Geek supposes, one out of two isn't that bad. Perhaps one of these days your advisers will get it through to you that a premature cut and run from the rubble of Iraq will be against longer term US interests.

That nice, well-meaning young man, Senator Obama stays in the gripless category with his recent vision of a world without nuclear weapons. The Geek would share that idyllic view if it weren't for the unfortunate fact that unicorns and elves are thin on the ground in his part of the world.

A strong case can be made for the proposition that the nuclear umbrella from 1945 on made the world safe for war. (In fact, the Geek laid out the basics of that argument in a previous post.) An equally strong case can be mounted for the contention that deterrence works.

A.Q Khan has complicated the proliferation problem with his adventures in passing along nuclear technology. If the Senator from Illinois (or one of his deep thinking foreign affairs advisers) took a look at the A.Q. Khan example, they might get a grip on a basic fact regarding nuclear weapons.

The basic fact?

They are deucedly hard to control. The founding members of the Nuclear Club were remarkably successful in restricting this category of weaponry to reasonably responsible states, or at least states whose leadership understood that it is no fun to rule over a greenglassed wasteland populated by megacorpses beyond count.

Thanks to the enterprising Islamist, A.Q., nuclear weapons technology has spread to countries which might not be as stable as the original members of the Club. This raises an important question. Are the leaders of these states whether Pakistan or Iran any less rational than those of the old Soviet Union, or today's Russia, China, Israel, France, UK, or US?

The focus on nuclear disarmament is understandable. There seems nothing more terrifying than the specter of a nuclear exchange no matter how limited.

Just thinking about it, makes the Geek shiver all over.

Not really.

There are options far more attractive than the nuclear one. Options far more easily acquired, more easily employed than the atomic bombs.

Biological weapons, whether those directed against humans or the sources of human life such as livestock and crops, constitute the most preferable in the Geek's estimation, particularly if blowback is not a problem for the user. (Which it wouldn't be in the case of crop directed attacks.)

Electronic attacks on a target's financial, public utilities, or air traffic control system, would be another very attractive option. Think of it as the equivalent of the much maligned enhanced radiation weapon ("neutron bomb") of the Eighties. A lot of destruction without any deaths.

There are other options as well, but a post can't be too long.

Then, Senator Obama, there is the problem of truly effective technology control. Even if all the current nuclear powers were to join in some Sixties fantasy of banning the bomb, the knowledge of how to make it would still exist. The technology would still exist. The required materials would still exist.

Radiological materials would still exist. They could still be obtained by those with money or brains enough to buy or steal them. Sure, there wouldn't be any impressive big bang on the impact zone nor would there be megacorpses. There would still be dead bodies in large enough numbers to be impressive. There would be fear. In all respects except mushroom clouds, nuclear winter and other mediagenic features, the results would be akin to the use of atomic bombs.

Get a grip, Senator Obama.

Big dreams are actually the result of numerous small, achievable dreams. Focus on the real, and you just might achieve the impossible. You might start by addressing what should be done when a state demonstrably, verifiably violates nuclear non-proliferation obligations.

Do that, and you might just convince the Geek to vote for you.