Putin Gives Us A Lesson In Diplomacy

Diplomatic negotiation is all about accomplishing a national interest. Russia has a national interest in limiting nuclear proliferation. Particularly proliferation in what the Kremlin has long called the "Near Abroad. The acquisition of nuclear weapons capability by a country in the Near Abroad which is Islamist constitutes a clear and present threat to the lads in the Kremlin.

Anyone who thinks the Russian government has not been keeping a very close, suspicious, and worried watch on Iranian developments in the nuclear area is badly in need of therapy-reality therapy. Russia is a lot closer to Iran than are we. Russia has a long and very unhappy experience with both Islamists and Jihadists.

Putin and company (as befits former intelligence officers) have been playing a tightly managed game with Tehran which has reached a new level with the Russian President's current visit to Tehran. He continues to play the game with outstanding skill and grace.

The nature of the game?

Basically, the Russians have been following a two tier approach. The first tier has been to cooperate (sort of and at their own pace) with the US push for UN sanctions. The second has been both more subtle and potentially far more effective.

To understand the second tier it is essential to remember not only that Russia has economic interests in Iran but that it has long standing strategic interests as well. The goal of the second tier therefore is to assure that Tehran does not develop nuclear weapons while assuring that Russia gains, or at least, doesn't lose, its developing influence in Iran.

The linkage between the two tiers has been the ability of the Russian government and Putin personally to present Russia as a trustworthy and protective partner with Iran vis a vis the US and those EU countries which choose to vocally and politically support the US. Months ago, while stalling the delivery of parts needed to finish the Russian built nuclear reactor, the linkage between the two tiers became evident.

The Russians offered a compromise on the uranium enrichment problem which is at the center of the present huffing, puffing, and threatening to blow Teheran's house down. The compromise was that the Russians would undertake the enrichment as well as subsequent nuclear waste processing.

The Iranians publicly declined the compromise. The Russians metaphorically shrugged their shoulders, deliveries of parts and construction went on as did the growing US driven demand for sanctions.

If the Kremlin took the Iranians at their word, it would have resulted in "objective validation" of Teheran's desire to achieve nuclear weapons. Less than a week before leaving for Germany and Iran, Putin personally declared that he had seen no such "objective validation."

Either Putin was lying or he is awesomely gripless.

The Geek knows that lying is an ordinary part of the diplomatic, intelligence, and political bag of usual tactics. He is also convinced that Putin has a firm grip on the realities of Iran (and the world generally.)

Putin played the role of Teheran's protector at the most recent meeting of the P5+2 by rejecting a third round of sanctions as premature despite lobbying efforts by France's president Sarkozy. He took the same line with Angela Merkel just prior to boarding the plane to Tehran.

Earlier today the sometimes bare-chested Putin pulled off his rhetorical shirt to denounce any plans for military action on the part of "others" to preempt Iran's nuclear effort. With a rapidity and unanimity which would have done the components of the old Soviet Union proud, the successor states of the Caspian Sea region stood in solidarity with Moscow and Tehran declaring that none would allow attacks to be mounted from their territory.

Bravo, Vladimir!

As an encore, Putin launched a verbal attack on our current administration's love of unilateralism and fondness for "illegitimate" military acts which ranks with some of the finest diatribes mouthed by former Soviet leaders. Putin's rhetorical skills must have impressed even Iran's Orator-in-Chief.

What's going on in the diplomatic backroom, then?

Odds are that the Russians and their Iranian interlocutors have reached back a few months to retrieve the Russian enrichment offer. This deal can be announced at any time, but the best would be in a month or two--after the International Atomic Energy Agency has determined if Tehran has answered all the outstanding questions regarding their past nuclear activities.

Russia either alone or with the support of the Peoples' Republic of China can declare that the requirements of the UN have been met. Again acting alone or with the support of Beijing, Moscow can determine that sanctions are no longer necessary. The final detail would be the announcement of Teheran's acceptance of the Russian compromise.

This scenario would have a number of benefits for Tehran. The sanctions have hurt. Any increase such as those discussed by the EU would raise the pain. Tehran has already admitted that securing international financing for various oil related projects has been impossible. Only an end to the sanctions would allow the future to look less bleak.

It would also leave the Iranian enrichment equipment intact.

And, enriching from low to high levels of U-235 is easier than going from very low to low.

To secure continued Russian understanding and cooperation, the backroom diplomats will have to address that issue to the Kremlin's satisfaction. The smart money would bet on that part of the deal being made but not publicised.

From the American perspective this outcome would be satisfactory. It would also prove that the diplomacy of the current administration has been every bit as inept as it has appeared to be.

The current administration has forgotten (if it ever knew) the aphorism of Republican President and occasional icon, Theodore Roosevelt. It was something about speaking quietly and carrying a big stick.

The current administration believes not only in waving a hell of a big stick but in shouting. Shouting rarely in diplomatic history has brought about productive, long term effects.

Iran is a unique challenge for diplomacy. On the one hand, it is Islamist to the core. On the other, it is a functioning state with all the normal concerns of a functioning state--diplomatic, military, economic, and internal stability.

The mullahocracy in Tehran has sufficient contact with the real world to understand that it is standing on a demographic earthquake zone. It also gets its collective nose out of the Quran long enough to understand that any authoritarian regime needs to be able to show minimal improvement in the quality of life of its citizens from year to year if it is not to face potentially unstoppable unrest.

The Russians, perhaps because of their centuries of experience with regimes ranging between the authoritarian to the extremely authoritarian understood the dynamics in play in Iran and cut their diplomatic sails to fit the winds of reality.

The current administration did not. Instead, we have done nothing beyond issue threats mixed with ultimata. At least publicly we have not even offered the minimum inducement of restoring the diplomatic relations severed by Tehran in a highly dramatic way more than twenty-five years ago.

The Geek doesn't know who looks better shirtless, Vladimir Putin or George W. Bush. But, he sure knows which is the better diplomat.