Over one hundred fifty years ago the United States made its first venture into Latin American foreign policy with the Monroe Doctrine. At the time the British Foreign Minister scoffed at "the Yankee cockboat trailing in the wake of the British frigate."
He was right. Just not quite right enough.
A cursory examination of US-Latin American relations shows that the enormous mass of land and people south of us is at best a very small dingy bobbing in the wake of larger foreign policy concerns. For that matter the UK, Spain, Italy, and, on occasion, Germany have placed one or more of the many countries of South and Central America far higher on the to-do list than has the US.
South and Central America only sporadically drift through Washington's crosshairs. Normally these occur during war or the threat of war (usually seen as a potential abridgement of the Monroe Doctrine, construed broadly.) Every now and then Washington wakes up from its seemingly endless siesta to cough out a new direction in our relations with the land to the south.
Secretary of State Olney's "sixteen inch gun" memorandum which provoked a tad of saber rattling in Great Britain was an early example of the Monroe Doctrine's impact on our view of South America. More famous and long term in its effect was Theodore Roosevelt's Corollary to the Monroe Doctrine, which went hand in hand with the need to protect the seaward approaches to the Panama Canal.
(Completeness of the historical record requires the Geek to note that TR fabricated the "revolt" which created Panama from the body of Columbia. In large measure, TR did this because of apprehension within portions of the Progressive Internationalists about the prospect of Germany moving to build a trans-isthmian canal. The Monroe Doctrine shook like half congealed jello over that prospect.)
The Roosevelt Corollary led to the stability oriented occupations of the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Nicaragua. These interventions were seen as required by the Monroe Doctrine and US interests at the time. Hindsight both in the US and Latin America strongly questioned the wisdom and the long term effects of our efforts in the construction of democracy.
The Monroe Doctrine was shrugged off and Uncle Sam woke from a nap of benign neglect with the creation of the Good Neighbor Policy during the administration of Franklin Roosevelt. One effect of this "new direction" was the formation of the Rio Pact and the concomitant creation of the Organization of American States.
The potential of the Good Neighbor Policy (if any) was prevented from full development by World War II. Whether mentioned by name or not, the Ghost of President Monroe rose from the grave with a speed that would do Dracula proud as the US sought bases, provided weapons, and enlisted allies in the Great Crusade in Europe.
The Cold War kept the Monroe Doctrine stalking the hemisphere with policy implications for the region that were not always positive. The US administrations and congresses were eager to confuse the appearance of short-term order under a repressive government with the reality of long-term stability.
The intellectual and realpolitik bankruptcy of reflexive support for repressive regimes was brought home dramatically with the success (in largest measure assured by a single critical decision by President Eisenhower) of the 26th of July Movement headed by Fidel Castro. Shortly thereafter the long dictatorship of Trujillo was ended in the Dominican Republic, but not in a way that met either the best interests of the Dominican people or US policy.
In between the success of Castro and the fall of Trujillo, the US tried yet another "new direction" in Latin American policy. The Kennedy Administration brought forth, in a typical blare of Camelot Era hype, something called the Alliance For Progress, which promised all sorts of economic goodies for our neighbors to the south.
The potential (if any) of the Alliance was never realised as Congress and the Johnson Administration saw higher priorities in the War on Poverty and the War in Vietnam. Latin America, with the exception of that ever present US bete noir, Cuba, faded into the background.
The Ghost of President Monroe went back to the crypt with only occasional appearances as in the Nixon "two track" strategy in Chile. Or Ronald Reagan's adventures in counterinsurgency and regime change in El Salvador and Nicaragua. The lesson was simple: A whiff of Marx brings Monroe out of the pine box.
In more recent years we Americans have been quite content to pull our metaphorical sombreros down over our eyes and sleep. Every now and then the sound of gunfire in the War on Drugs (a war that does not involve the Spirit of James Monroe) rouses us to send lawyers, guns, and money to governments who promise to use them to rout out and kill drug thugs.
After a few years though even the War on Drugs became repetitious and boring enough so that we fell back into a dozing daze. What the hey! There was all that nifty Arab terrorist stuff.
And, didn't you hear? The Soviet Union is kaput! Communism is dead. Unless there is a connection with Iran or al-Qaeda, the Ghost of Monroe can rest in peace forevermore.
The Geek is all for letting the Monroe Doctrine slumber. He is not all for ignoring the swath of the globe down south of the Rio Grande del Norte.
Consider Hugo Chavez, the neo-Castroite jefe of Venezuela. While the current administration has been focused on the Global War on Terrorism and Great Adventures in Regime Change, something quite unpleasant to our current and future national interest has been underway down very far south of the border.
While Sr Chavez might have originally come into office in a properly democratic election, his more recent record (including the attempted recall vote which Chavez won in a disputable election) shows him to be a man for whom the democratic process is a disposable tool.
The Geek is not going to offer an assessment of Chavez' potential as a benevolent despot beyond noting with interest the outflow of the Venezuelan middle class to nearby countries such as Panama. There must be a reason, a good reason, for these established folks to be taking the next stage out of Dodge.
Far under the radar of the mainstream media and the neocon ninnies alike, Sr Chavez has been busy. Oh, the Geek doesn't simply mean with such mundane internal matters as suppressing freedom of the electronic media or nationalizing the odd oil firm or two. Mere bagatelles those. Hardly worth tipping the sombrero back off the eyes.
No, what the Geek is referring to is how the beaver-busy Chavez has been cultivating his regional garden. Beyond establishing tighter and tighter ties with his fellow-travelling leaders in Ecuador and Bolivia, Sr Chavez has been using his personal charisma and lots of oil money to establish connections in Columbia and elsewhere in the continent. (Of course Sr Chavez' affections for and ties with Castro's Cuba require no comment.)
Sr Chavez has not been ignoring the larger world either. Iran has increasingly cozy relations with Venezuela.
And, why not, the Geek asks. The two regimes have several features in common. Both have beaucoup oil money. Both detest the United States. Both have the policy interest and desire to defeat the US whenever and where ever possible.
Under Chavez, Venezuela has been sidling closer to other hostile states such as North Korea and Syria. Nor has the Venezuelan Foreign Ministry been indifferent to the potentials of closer relations with the Peoples' Republic of China.
Perhaps with these considerations in play, the current administration (or its successor) will be tempted to re-awaken the Ghost of Monroe. Or, more optimistically, the US will rouse from its most recent fit of absentmindedness regarding South America and seek yet another "new direction."
One strong contender for the next new direction is the creation of yet more free-trade zones in the manner of NAFTA or its Central American equivalent--the one which Costa Rica by a narrow margin of votes chose to join last weekend.
Liberals and trans-national corporations (the strangest of strange bed mates) have a seemingly bottomless faith in the power of free-trade to counter all the icky-poo things that go bump in the foreign policy night. Progressives and true conservatives (another passingly weird political alliance) do not share this belief.
(The Geek is officially an agnostic on the question since not enough time has elapsed for a genuine historical trajectory to have emerged. Still, he shudders every time he passes the local Walmart and thinks about the implications of its Adventure in Globalization.)
History demonstrates convincingly that the US has never been either a good or a bad neighbor to South America. It shows instead that the US has been the most inconsistent of neighbors.
History also demonstrates beyond even the most unreasonable doubt that the worst sort of foreign policy is an inconsistent one.
We have to get a grip on that reality. And change it. Or, suffer the consequences of sleeping at the switch.
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5 comments:
Don't you think free trade is the answer? Why won't mutual economic development work effectively to lower the social unrest and class struggle that brought Hugo Chavez to power? Is there any reason to support the three trade agreements currently in Congress? I mean leaving aside the question of Panama's new president and the charge that he killed an American soldier during our regime change in that country.
It's often said that you can see how effective your own geopolitical moves will be by the "counter measures" initiated by the folks on the other side (primarily in this case, Hugo Chavez).
If that basic principle holds true, then acting positively on the different Free Trade agreements currently up for consideration hold real potential for the United States. Because you have already seen Hugo Chavez try and come up with his own version of "Free Trade" deals which these same LATAM nations would specifically exclude the US. That tells you something about Hugo's concern over the US Free Trade agreements in the LATAM area.
Personally, free trade agreements look to be our best card in LATAM Besides, I'd much rather expand trade in the LATAN region rather than expand in the PRC, which I'm just sure we are going to regret (probably sooner rather than later).
If the hard left liberals and the hard right conservatives were smart about the Free Trade issue, they'd focus on reducing/controlling free trade with the PRC, and expanding Free Trade in LATAM. Because the facts are, you have got to have the trade resources somewhere (Hint hint: "Goods and Services"), and I'd much rather deal with LATAM than the PRC.
Just think of demographics and how #'s in the US society are changing - wouldn't it make more sense to have greatly expanded free trade with LATAM nations, simply on the basis of the numbers?
The good news (what little there is) of this is, even with our own enormous political ineptitude (which both parties are equally inept at, although the Democrats seem to want to take over the lead), Hugo Chavez isn't very good at "walking the walk". He certainly can do the "wheeling & dealing" part, but the performance issues after the deals are cut are something else.
But we have got to decide if we want to get into the game....
The Geek is not opposed to free trade agreements. As he wrote he is an agnostic on the subject. What this means is that such agreements must be evaluated on a case by case basis.
The wholesale rush into globalization has not been necessarily beneficial to either the US or to other countries. There are strong indications that some trade agreements have hurt the economic interests of American workers--and those in other countries as well.
(That is why the Geek shivers when he drives by the local Walmart. Wally's World is one of low wages globally and high profits for the Sons of Sam.)
That is not a paradigm that would lead stability in Latin America. Provided that the interests of the local populations (both here and there) are properly guarded, free trade is a totally appropriate approach.
Once again, as is so often the case in foreign affairs, the devil is in the details. The Costa Ricans were right to be suspicious of the potential effects of the recently approved free trade pact. It may well have negative effects. But, on balance, it appears to the Geek that the agreement will have more pluses than minuses.
The Geek is of the view that the Panama agreement deserves approval by Congress. He considers the allegations that the new president killed a US soldier during Operation Just Cause to be utterly irrelevant.
The Geek holds the same view with respect to the agreement with Columbia. The Colombian government has been doing reasonably well countering the "drug threat." To expect them to do more before approving the trade agreement is the same as a physician telling a patient, "When you aren't sick any more, then I'll give you a prescription."
Regarding the Wide Open One Way Economic Door with the PRC, the Geek has long been of the view that trade with China is trading with the enemy. He has expressed this position in earlier posts, and probably will do so again.
The US has been inconsistent in its Latin American policy entirely too long. The Geek is convinced that unless we exercise a consistent and positive policy including appropriate free trade agreements, we will be in for a long haul over bad roads down South.
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