Is Osama Really, Really Hiding In A Cave?

For some while now, the Geek has been chatting with associates from a former occupation. One of the chief subjects was Osama, Osama, Where's Osama? No conclusions were reached, but a consensus emerged.

Now, a former intelligence service chief has preempted our consensus. Lt-General Asad Durrani, the one-time jefe of Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence agency (ISI), has gone public with a well-founded "speculation." You can find it at Reuters UK in an article that appeared today on-line. http://uk.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUKL0915039620071009?feedType=nl&feedName=uktopnewsmid

While the Geek would like to imagine (as do many others) that the ascetic bin Laden is living in a cave somewhere in the Tribal Agencies along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border, it doesn't seem too likely that this is the case. (It is tough to let go of the pleasant fantasies of a life worse than the most bottom dwelling Turkish prison.)

The Geek admits that the physical terrain of the Tribal Agency regions of Pakistan is tough to search and easy to hide in. He further stipulates that the folks living in the area put a high value on hospitality. He further readily agrees that the process of "Talibanization" of the Tribal Agencies has progressed to a highly significant degree. Additionally, the Geek eagerly points out that ISI and the Pakistani security forces are heavily penetrated by Islamists quite sympathetic with bin Laden's status and message.

Having granted all these key points, the Geek is still unconvinced that the Symbol-in-Chief of global jihadism has been hunkered down in a stone hut or a cave for the past six years. As General Durrani suggests, word does get around in even the most clannish tribal areas. Given the size of the price on Mr bin Laden's head, any whisper of his whereabouts would be magnified by the powerful megaphone of human greed. At least eventually.

Cities are great places to hide. Hordes of people, crowded streets, the inherent anonymity that exists in urban environments make for better cover and concealment than rocky slopes and empty spaces. Close associates of Osma bin Laden's have chosen the urban setting in which to hide albeit without success.

(Ramzi Binalshibh was nailed in Karachi in September 2002 and Khalid Sheikh Mohammed in Rawalpindi in March 2003.)

Although the former ISI capo would be loath to admit this, it is quite possible that neither of these men had the status and therefore the protection afforded to Osama bin Laden. Perhaps they served the role of "throwaways"--tossed off the Pakistani troika to satisfy the baying American wolves.

For bin Laden, an urban refuge would have a number of advantages. In a city he would have access to communications, transportation, medical care. All of these are critical considerations given that the man has to have some contact with followers and supporters. He needs to be able to move safely. And, his health may not be in a terminal condition as some have alleged (or hoped), but highly credible reports dating back years indicate he no longer has youthful robustness.

The task of concealment in plain sight is eased by the definitely uneasing possibility that the Pakistanis have not been looking for bin Laden with any sort of due diligence. Not only would he be protected by his supporters and sympathisers among the police, intelligence, and security forces, it is within the realm of possibility that the current government has reached a tacit agreement with the King of All Fugitives.

Leave us alone and we'll do the same for you.

Why not? It would be in the immediate best interests of the lads in Islamabad to turn the Nelsonian eye in bin Laden's direction. It serves Osama's best interests to have a secure base with all the conveniences of modern life.

Of course, the arrangements would have a certain precarious aspect. The internal political situation of Pakistan is far from stable. The election is up in the air until the less than predictable Supreme Court of Pakistan rules on the legality of the election and the return of Bhutto. The Islamists have not shown a willingness to forget the goal of further Islamising Pakistan.

Then there is the matter of Osama bin Laden having called for the killing of Musharraf. One small indicator is the lack of any serious attempt to put the call into effect. Granted that General Musharraf is surrounded by a defense in depth, that isn't enough explanation.

Other equally hard targets have been effectively engaged by individuals willing to die in the attempt.

Another possibility is simply that the word went out on the Islamist streets not to take the taped appeal seriously. Contradictory messages are nothing new in politics, let alone radical groups.

But, wait one, Geek, you might object as you point out that in the past couple of days the Pakistani armed forces appear to have moved aggressively against Taliban strongholds in the Tribal Agencies.

Yes, the Geek cheerfully agrees.

There has been a great deal of sound and fury from the mountains of Wazirastan, but does it mean anything except the armed forces are finally reacting to the combination of Taliban provocation and American pressure? Dead Talibanistas, or even dead peasants are important to someone like bin Laden only in so far as they provide martyr oriented propaganda.

It does not signify either the absence of an understanding between bin Laden and the government (or elements within it) or a collapse of the deal. (Right now, if the Geek were Osama he would be wondering just why General Durrani is meeting with the press and speculating the way he is.)

Even if Osama is not currently somewhere in urban Pakistan, even if he is in some other city in some other country today, he will return. Our Osama hunters might be well advised to look for someone with a changeable beard who is a little taller than average and keeps company with a mixture of Arabs and Pakistani security personnel.

Still, the Geek would like to imagine Osama huddled at the back of a cave, wondering what his wives are doing and wishing for one of his horses so he could feel the wind, wild and free.