Friday, October 26, 2007

Get Real, Putin!

Vladimir Putin and the Geek share one factor. We were both alive during the Cuban Missile Crisis, which peaked a couple days shy of forty-five years ago.

Mr Putin and the Geek differ in one important factor. The Geek is a historian. Putin distorts history--even worse than does our Commander Guy.

President Putin had the sheer unmitigated gall to compare the proposed basing of US anti-missiles in Poland with supporting target acquisition radars in the Czech Republic with the Soviet action of deploying offensive medium and intermediary missiles in Cuba.

It has been a long while since a supposedly responsible world figure has reversed the reality of an historical event that much. Compared to the brazen effrontery of Putin's wretched warping of the past, the Commander Guy's misinterpretations of the Vietnam War are minor errors.

Let's go to the videotape.

Back in 1962 the Soviet Union without any prior warnings, discussion, or threats attempted the secret basing of offensive, nuclear capable missiles in Cuba along with supporting defensive systems including a reinforced brigade of combat troops. Our intelligence wallahs caught them at it.

The crisis grew rapidly. The US went public early on with overhead imagery displayed at the UN. The Soviets blustered, noting that the US had based intermediate range missiles in Turkey right on the Soviet border.

As matters escalated, the Kennedy Administration finally fixed on a naval blockade (euphemistically called a "quarantine") around Cuba. As the first missile laden Soviet freighters approached the blockade, breaths were held on both sides of the Iron Curtain.

Not to overstate the case, the world came within a hairbreadth of nuclear war. Never before and never since the last week of October 1962 has the unthinkable come so close to happening.

The crisis resolved quickly. The Soviets backed down. The missiles went back home. The US promised not to invade Cuba and went ahead with the already programmed removal of the Jupiter C missiles from Turkey and elsewhere in Europe. The Kremlin quietly kept its combat brigade in Cuba (where it was suddenly "rediscovered" in a blare of hype during the Reagan Administration.)

OK, keep that synopsis in mind as we look at the US ABM initiative in Central Europe.

Quite awhile back, the current administration announced its plan to base a small (ten fire units) anti-ballistic missile force in Poland with supporting radar in the Czech Republic. The purpose of the new installations was to defend Europe against any intermediate range missile threat coming from Northwest Asia, which meant Iran.

The announcement as well as the lengthy negotiations with Poland, the Czech Republic, and Russia have been in the open and very well publicised. The Russian love affair with the word nyet has been demonstrated all along.

The US has made numerous attempts to assuage Russian anxieties about the installation. In recent weeks the Americans have even taken the necessary step of treating Russia like the Great Power it believes it is regarding the proposed ABM basing. Most recently SecDef Gates has stated that the facilities will not be "activated" until the Iranians demonstrate a credible threat.

A uniformed stooge in the Russian Strategic Rocket Forces blew that offer off.

SecDef Gates has also suggested that, subject to Czech approval, Russian experts can be stationed at the radar site to assure that it is not directed against any Russian trajectories of attack. That was dubbed "interesting" by the Kremlin.

So, you tell the Geek something.

Where is the historical analogy Putin thinks exists between the now in Central Europe and the then in the Cuban Missile Crisis?

Or, is the Russian President pursuing some other objective?

That's quite likely. The Russians are unhappy with the Cold War vintage Intermediate Nuclear Forces treaty. Only the US and Russia (and other successor states of the Soviet Union) are bound by it. Other countries, some of which might present a credible threat at some future date including Israel, India, Iran, Pakistan, Peoples Republic of China, Japan, South Korea are not.

Here's a question for you, Mr Putin.

If that is the real motive behind your preposterous line, why not just put it forward? Why not take the lead in demanding a multi-party negotiation on the subject including not just the US and European countries but all others within 1500 nautical miles range of Russian borders?

Or, Vladimir, were you taking lessons from Tehran's Orator-in-Chief during your recent trip there?

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