Diplomacy, what a marvelous word! To many folks it is a term redolent of witchcraft, a magical fetish which, if waved properly and invoked with the correct ritualistic words, will neutralize threats, assure peace, and generally improve the lot of the human race. To others the term brings to mind nothing more substantial than the optics of serious looking people hustling up and down impressive stairways, shaking hands while smiling in a uniquely Botox way, or, signing impressively bound documents.
In the real world diplomacy consists of either (1) a sincere exercise in (hard) bargaining based on identifiable, coinciding national interest with the intent of achieving a way of expanding or protecting these interests or (2) a creative way to expend much time in the hopes the underlying problem will go away or at least lose its initial force. With respect to the Chinese call that the US and each of the two Koreas rely upon "diplomacy" in the wake of the latest bit of blatant provocation by Pyongyang, the latter interpretation is applicable.
The call for time wasting diplomacy is in China's interest. This move along with the ever repeated urgings from the Trolls that both Pyongyang and Seoul show "calm" gives the appearance of an active Chinese interest in the affairs of the peninsula. Imploring all parties to "talk," to "exercise restraint" and, above all, use "diplomacy" pumps the sweet fragrance of a Chinese love of rationality and peace. The constant use of "diplomacy" also raises Chinese credit in the estimate of all those nice, well meaning folks who believe in the power of international institutions and meetings conducted by grimly smiling people around highly polished tables. This then is the magical power of "diplomacy."
By comparison any more realistic appraisal by a foreign leader to the effect that nothing will change in North Korean behavior unless and until there is a change in the North Korean regime is easily seen as some sort of primitive monger of war. The less pleasant, but far more grounded in reality position holding that there is no call for diplomatic talks under whatsoever name until there is a firm reason to believe that some substantial end will emerge from the blue smoke and mirrors laden process is eclipsed by the higher moral position claimed by and granted to the Trolls for having used the words "diplomacy" and "calm" first and most.
The Trolls of Beijing long have been aware of the potency of invoking the diplomatic fetish, how it provides an appearance of high mindedness, of how it captures the debate by making more accurate and realistic approaches look almost barbaric in their bluntness. The Trolls also realize that by moving quickly to wave the fetish, they can appear to be serious of purpose, mature global citizens, and world leaders for peace without having to do something in actuality. It is a win-win for the Trolls.
It is also their only option given that Beijing has no intent of pulling in the leash on Pyongyang. They have no desire to do anything which might perturb the succession of Kim Jong-un to the top spot in Pyongyang. And, they well understand the processes at work to give the Number Three Son the street cred he needs to be even a nominal headman. The occasional provocation, the deaths of a few or even a few dozen South Korean military personnel or civilians represent to the Trolls only the normal, expectable costs of an orderly change in government in Pyongyang.
The Chinese have far more to gain by their current course of support for Pyongyang than they have to lose. Not only has the status quo in the Korean peninsula worked well from the perspective of Beijing, it is a object lesson to other states increasingly reliant upon Chinese support in the wacky world of diplomacy.
Consider Iran. Iran and China have a web of interconnections ranging from the economic to the diplomatic. These are equally vital to the national interests of both states. Beijing desires to see the ties grow thicker and stronger as such will add much to China's benefit.
Iran and North Korea have a long history of close relations and mutual support. The ties between the missile and nuclear weapons programs of both are quite strong and effective. The Iranians have spent and will spend considerable sums to acquire devices and technology of North Korean origin in both areas. The two countries have combined efforts on a number of fronts, most recently on the design of a re-entry vehicle suitable for the Nodong/Shihab missile. The re-entry vehicle would, of course, be designed to hold a nuclear warhead.
More important than specific weapons or any given technology, the North Koreans have provided the example of how a country goes about the task of evading sanctions, ignoring diplomatic opprobrium, and generally cocking a snoot at the US and most of the other countries of the world. Tehran has learned the most important lesson of all from its observations of North Korea versus the civilized states of the world.
That lesson is simple, even brutally so. With China anything and everything is possible.
As long as the mullahs accommodate Chinese interests and desires, they can rely upon China's assistance and support. China wants cheap oil, it gets it. China wants lucrative contracts in Iran, these go to the Chinese. For its part China gets oil, money, and further boosts for its domestic economy. For Beijing and for Tehran it is a win-win game.
This is the model provided over the years by the infinitely less lucrative arrangements between Beijing and Pyongyang. You might see the agreements between the Trolls and the Hermits as a sort of loss leader since it has led to the very profitable linkage between the Trolls and the Mullahs.
As long as China plays the right sort of mood music, the tunes of "diplomacy" and "calm," it has the necessary cover behind which it can do nothing. As long as the Trolls go through the motions, mouth the correct mantras, Beijing can ignore the pleading of President Obama and others such as Australian ForMin Rudd to "exercise its influence" on Pyongyang.
One can be forgiven for believing that with the resources of the Agency and State Department at his disposal, the Guy in the Oval would have understood long ago that Beijing is a remorseless pursuer of its national and strategic interests. Period. Appeals to the mythical obligation to the "international community" are as bootless as would be depending upon the prognostications found in a Chinese fortune cookie. Why the Nice Young Man From Chicago or members of his foreign policy "team" make these appeals boggles the mind. Such a demonstration of pure out-to-lunchness is hard to understand--and impossible to forgive.
The real deal requires dropping the pretense that "diplomacy" can or will play any meaningful role unless and until the Hermits make necessary concessions on their nuclear and missile programs without any agreed upon in advance reciprocal actions. The real deal requires accepting the high probability of more provocations in the future with the codicil of understanding that war is unlikely save by extreme miscalculation.
The realities of the situation also demand accepting the fact that the North has both an unlimited capacity for provocation and is inherently less prudent than the South. This implies the US (and for its own reasons and in its own way, China) must be acutely situationally aware and fast to exercise a braking influence on precipitant actions by its junior partner.
This, in turn, is dependent upon a good eye and ear for nuance. Understanding nuance, particularly during the inherently less stable and predictable period of regime change, is a foundational reality. Whether the overly large, overly complicated, overly tardy American intelligence and foreign policy apparatus is up to the task of reading fine grain nuances of North Korean and Chinese behavior is questionable.
Even more questionable is the ability and willingness of President Obama and his closest senior advisors to both understand and act effectively upon the demands of nuance. So far the record of the president and his administration gives no cause for optimism.
Gee, Mr Obama, wouldn't it be a lot more fun to be back in the Senate with nothing more important to do than to rail away at those obstructionist and reactionary people across the aisle? It sure would be better for the world if that were the case.
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