The Chicago Slicky Boy Makes A Slick Move

In his address to the Indian parliament President Obama made a commitment to India.  Specifically, he gave full US support for the long held Indian goal of a permanent seat on the UN Security Council.  Because the promise was given in the context of a major reform of the Council, it is a move heavy in symbolism and short on substance.  Altogether a typical move for the rhetorically inclined Mr Obama.

The Indians no doubt understand this.  However, understanding in no way robs the motion of its powerful diplomatic effect.  Infinitely more than the recently concluded Commonwealth Games, the gesture by the American president affirms India's coming of age.  It is a hoped for indicator by the leader of what was once--and may still be, despite the disastrous policies of Mr Obama--the most powerful and influential country on Earth that India is now a global player of the first rank.

In short, nothing could make the Indian government, elite, and opinion molders generally more delighted.  The move builds on the far more practical policy of George W. Bush which brought India into respectability in the area of civilian nuclear power without harming its nuclear weapons program to strengthen the ties between the US and the only potential counterweight to China--or the advocates of violent political Islam in Asia.  This is good for the US, good for India, good for the region, and good for the world.

It is even good for Pakistan.  That is if the government and army of the place can finally break free of the shackles of religion, the tight bindings of long past events.

Pakistan has the potential to be a far more prosperous, and far more important country than it is currently.  The untapped hydrocarbon resources under the barren topography of Baluchistan could give the country a solid economic base from which to grow, develop a diversified economy, and bootstrap the impoverished citizens out of the doldrums, doldrums which otherwise provide fertile recruiting grounds for the proponents of violent political Islam.

The Pakistani government is aware of the resources.  It is also aware of the need for outside money and talent to exploit these,  To that end as well as to wave a threat at the US, Islamabad has made overtures to the Chinese.  The Trolls of Beijing are properly aware of the potentials in Pakistan and have responded both quickly and favorably as with the deal to build another nuclear reactor in Pakistan and start port development efforts on the Baluchi coast.

The leadership of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan is no doubt pleased with the early results of the demarche to China.  Longer term potential dangers have been shunted to one side.  Unless the self-satisfied leadership stops and reassesses the situation, they will find that they have mounted a tiger with respect to future freedom of action.  The Chinese are far less easy going than is the US when it comes to single minded pursuit of national interest and will brook no interference with maximum benefits flowing to Beijing.  The very nationalistic Pakistanis will rue this too late when the Chinese boot stomps on their collective face.

The Pakistanis would be far more shrewed and far more successful if they took advantage of India's new status in the world and in the estimate of the US.  Now is the right time to be openly and fully cooperative with India on the subject of terrorism.  Now is the right time to open meaningful negotiations with both India and the Kashmiris regarding the final status of the disputed territories of Kashmir and Jammu.  Now is the right time for the Pakistani army to abandon its hopes for a rematch and get down to the essential business of saving the country from the groups propagating violent political Islam.  Now is the right time for the Directorate of Interservices Intelligence to get out of the terror facilitating racket and nudge their clients such as the Haqqani network to come to the peace talk table.

Of course, since the government, military, and intelligence wallahs of Pakistan have exhibited a remarkable capacity to forget nothing and learn nothing new, none of this is likely to happen.  Rather, it is far more probable that Islamabad will get its collective nose way out of joint and try one more extortion gambit directed against the usual target, the USA.  As the initial results demonstrated clearly, the Pakistanis respond with indignation and vitriol whenever the US seems to be tilting toward India.

The alarming and totally irrational ability of the Pakistani government and elite to take offense over something so minor as the truth was evident in the remarks of President Obama in Mumbai.  In his speech there, Mr Obama made reference to violence, to deaths, to terrorism even but never mentioned that the figure behind the commandos last year, the semi-hidden hand controlling the killers of Mumbai, was Pakistan.  This genuflection before the ultra-thin skin of the Pakistanis was a regrettable necessity, a realistic appraisal that our so-called "allies" in the war against the advocates of violent political Islam is both irrational and given to working both sides of the street.

The real question, however, is not how to get the Pakistani government to be less primitive and unconstructive in its efforts but whether or not the government and army still are actually in full and effective control of their territory and population.  Or, has the real power in the place shifted insensibly to the hands of those wedded to  violent political Islam?  If that is the case--as it appears to be--Pakistan will never be more than a perpetual and lethal thorn in the side of civilized states and their citizens and interests.  It will be a more dangerous version of Iran and a never ending source of instability and danger.

Pakistan is at the cliched crossroads.  Over the next few weeks and months, the response of Islamabad to the presidential initiative in India as well as the ongoing problem of the FATA will tell which way Pakistan is headed.  Right now the ongoing reluctance of the army to move into North Waziristan coupled with the detected shifting of the Haqqani network's center of gravity to an adjacent border area bodes ill for the direction of the country.

Mr Obama--as well as the people in the diplomatic and foreign policy trenches who were behind the president's statement--deserves congratulations for executing a slick piece of diplomatic symbolism.  In one set of words the US has improved its position with a key player, taken a more robust role in the region, and provided a stimulus for Pakistan to openly and conclusively choose a side.  And, it might be mentioned in passing, the president has shown that he may have the capacity to earn his bones in the foreign relations field with considerable implications for an event scheduled for just short of two years hence.