The Natives Are Restless And The Benefits Of Going It Alone

One of President Obama's reported goals in the current Great Asia Tour is forming a solid base of support against China with South Korea, Japan, and Indonesia.  As usual The Nice Young Man From Chicago is seeking the fig leaf of collective, multi-lateral action as cover for American policy genitalia.

The intent of the new solid front is that of forcing China to undertake a long overdue currency reevaluation.  The effect of this would be increasing the costs to Americans and other importers of Chinese made goods while decreasing the cost of dollar denominated goods such as those occasionally marked Made In USA.  The goal is not only laudable, it is necessary, critical even, particularly given the relative economic conditions in the US and China.

There is an easier way.  It is called going it alone.  The president could deliver an ultimatum to the Trolls of Beijing: Revalue or the US market will be closed to Chinese goods.

Horrors!  Say that can't be.  After all the Trolls could retaliate.  I mean, Geek, they hold billions of our IOUs.  If they were to dump all that paper on the market it would be a disaster of Biblical proportions.  Real dogs and cats sleeping together type stuff.

Yeah, Bucko, they could huff and puff in that direction.  Heck they might even bring back the ban on rare earth shipments.  And, without Chinese goods what would Walmart do?  How could the Sons of Sam continue to pile away the billions without the Chinese?

The Trolls may be ineptly arrogant in their recent approaches to foreign relations, but that is not to imply that they have lost rationality in the realm of profit and loss.  Dumping securities would rebound to their disadvantage, think of the opportunity costs involved.  And, as Beijing found out in its short trial balloon stoppage of rare earth exports, the consumer countries instantly started searching for alternatives ranging from recycling junked electronics to reexamining old mines thought to have been played out in their rare earth ores.

The Chinese have become rather addicted to the money flow from American consumers.  Much of their current prosperity rests solely on the backs of US shoppers.  Halting the cash tide would result in nearly instantaneous industrial dislocation with attendant mass layoffs and inevitably, social and political unrest.  If there is anything that is more anathema to the Trolls than internal unrest, it eludes the Geek completely.

The hoary analogy of two scorpions in a bottle coined for the Cold War doctrine of mutually assured destruction applies to the current economic relation between the US and China with one critical difference.  The US is the larger scorpion with the more fatal sting.  The Trolls know this; they know how much the internal stability of China depends upon constant American purchase of massive amounts of made in China goods.  There is no way the Asian and European markets could make up the shortfall which would result from even a short hiccup in trade with the US.

Thus a threat by one Democratic president to take away what a previous Democrat provided--an open door policy benefiting China--is credible.  A purely American ultimatum has all the power needed.  There is no requirement for a united front other than the ideological preferences of Mr Obama and others of the "progressive" ilk.  In any event, other countries would follow an American lead in this area for their own individual national interest imperatives.

The takeaway is simple: Man up!  Let the Trolls know just what will happen if they do not have a sudden attack of rationality on the reevaluation matter.  And, then, stick to it.  The howls will fade.  Reason and self-interest will prevail.

Golly, the natives are sure getting restless.  All because of the Obama 2010 Asian Tour.  The upsetness centers on--hang on for huge surprise--Pakistan!

The Pakistanis generally and former strongman Pervez Musharraf in particular are bent out of shape because the American president has had the temerity to jaunt about India while totally ignoring Pakistan.  The Pakistani political heavyweights are also torqued beyond belief with the Obama view that India is a global power and Pakistan is not.

That seems fair to the Geek as Pakistan is simply a minor regional player with annoying propensities and idiosyncratic as well as remarkably parochial concerns.  Pakistan is only a regional power because of its unlimited and rather juvenile capacity to make mischief in either or both Afghanistan and Kashmir.  It is important to the US only because many, many years ago when Ike was in the Oval, the Left-leaning Indian government hacked off the stiff necked Secretary of State John Foster Dulles to the extent that the president was convinced to "tilt" our policy in favor of Pakistan.

While the mistaken need to behave as if Pakistan really matters might have started more than fifty years ago with a profound fit of pique on the part of one SecState, it has continued to American misfortune ever since.  When George W. Bush made a major move to move closer to India five years ago it was seen to be necessary to bribe the Pakistanis with yet more big ticket military items all of which were such as to be useful in a hypothetical war against India.

The US would be best served in both its regional and global interests by openly continuing the trend started by the much maligned W. Bush.  The US and India have much to share.  Other than the Menace From the FATA, the US and Pakistan have no common norms or values and very few coinciding national interests.  The relation with Pakistan will not mature unless and until the Pakistani army can get the focus on India out of its institutional DNA.  Which is to say, two days past never.

The Transcendent Zaniness of Muslims Department has a good entry today.  The dateline is Mumbai--the city in India, you will recall which was hit hard by Pakistani trained and supported suicide commandos a year back.  The American president is spending the night in Mumbai, in one of the hotels targeted by the Mighty Men of the Koran.  Not surprisingly, security is of the utmost concern.

Enter Khan the bomb sniffing dog.  Khan is a German Shepard military working dog with a great nose.  He and his handler flew in from Germany before the president arrived and, presumably, went to work.  An alert Muslim saw the dog's name on its tag and posted the story.

Faster than a muezzin can call the faithful to prayer, a protest movement bloomed across Mumbai.  The Muslims, it seems, were deeply and desperately offended by naming a dog with a presumptively "Muslim" name.  Threats have been made and apologies demanded.  Muslim hyperventilating spread hard and fast.

Wait one, Abdul!  You guys have a lot of nerve.  What chutzpah thinking the dog was named Khan in honor of a Muslim.  You all have too much ego.

First of all the term "Khan" is one which applies to certain oriental figures of high rank and great historical note such as Genghis Khan.  It may  be that Muslim education even in an advanced country such as India fails to note personalities of high profile who are not Muslim.  The Geek cannot state but rather suspects that the madrassas are poor institutes of historical study.

Have none of you heard of the classic TV series Star Trek?  If you had you would know that one of the best of the bad guys on that long running show was a gentleman named Khan.  There is no doubt but the dog was named by his handler who has shown by the name that he is a "Trekkie" of good and long standing.

So, Muslims of Mumbai, get a grip!