He's Back And He's BAAAD!

Vladimir Putin, every Russian's "Good Czar" was at his self-promoting, uber-nationalist best speaking to the Duma yesterday.  The assembled parliamentarians--most of whom are card carrying members of Putin's United Russia Party--interrupted the Czar's speech with applause a number of times.  It was almost like the good old days when the General Secretary of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union spoke to his adoring sycophants.

The Putin speech gave one the impression that it is a tryout for next year's presidential campaign.  If so one wants to know one fact above all else:  Have Vladimir and his one time protegee, Dimitri Medvedev, reached an agreement on executing another swap of offices or will Vlad of the Bare Chest be squaring off against Dimitri the Techno-Nerd?

In either event the smart money will be on Putin.  Many of the reasons for this contention are to be found in the substance and tone of yesterday's speech.  At the very core of Putin's remarks as of his worldview is nationalism, pure and quite unapologetic nationalism.

This puts Czar Vladimir at a sharp contrast with Dimitri the Sophisticated.  Medvedev is quite cosmopolitan in comparison with Putin.  He is familiar with the West and is happy with his familiarity.  Dimitri sees much in Western economics, technology, society, and politics worthy of translation into Russian.  He does not see the West, either the EU or the US, as a threat--now or into the far future.  If Russia faces a threat in Medvendev's view, it comes from within, from corruption, from inefficiency, from outdated technology, from lack of venture capital, from disease, from alcohol, from despair.

Putin incarnates all the ancient and defining characteristics of Russian nationalism, the free floating fear of outside threats, the sense of inferiority in comparison with the West, the belief that either a state must expand or it will collapse, the sullen withdrawal into plotting a future caper when challenged or defeated in a current ploy.  Like the Russian people generally over the long sweep of the centuries, Putin can swing almost instantly between grandiose euphoria of triumphs in the making to profound, Arctic nights of bleak and cold feelings of failure.  As has been the case so often with so many of his predecessors--both czars and commissars--Vladimir is eager to be suspicious, alert to the faintest hint of potential threat, trembling on the ragged edge of paranoia, and quite sure that no matter how well affairs are going at the moment, the knife in the back and the kick in the groin are soon to happen.

Putin's speech reflected all of these characteristics.  It was ripe, over ripe, with hosannas onto Vladimir the Brilliant, Vladimir the Resolute, Vladimir the Unbelievably Successful.  It was also stuffed with dire warnings of unspecified foreign threats looming over Russia's present and future.  Putin demanded that Russia be stronger, much stronger, in order to counter these threats.  He declaimed more than once that not only did Russia need more, newer, and better weapons of all categories, it needed more births, more children, more sturdy Russian citizens to carry the burden of defending against the array of unspecified but potentially lethal threats confronting nation and state.

Putin took credit and warned of the need to do more, much more, to improve the economy.  Because Putin was so prescient as to have practiced a form of economic autarchy, Russia had come out of the global recession faster and in better shape than all other states.  He warned that only by following the Putin Paradigm and avoiding "sharp moves and ill-conceived experiments" could Russian prosperity be continued and expanded.  This was a less than well-concealed blow directed against Dimitri who is open to both "moves" and "experiments" imported from the Big Boys of the G-whatever.  Even more pointed was his follow-on comment, "those who are weak will get advice from foreign visitors on which way to go and what policy course to pursue."

Ouch!

However, the observation might have been directed as well at the US which has a sorry record extending from Bill Clinton through George W. Bush to Joe Biden of offering gratuitous and semi-insulting advice to various Russian leaders, including both Putin and Medvedev.  The lesson for future American politicians is simple: Never stoke a Russian's inherent bent toward holding on to his inferiority complex.

The Russian prime minister, the once and (perhaps) future president, rejected any notion that Russia might be swept by a people power movement such as those which have so visibly perturbed the Arab states.  Putin assured any nervous auditors that as long as his firm and steady hand is on the helm and as long as his wise and farsighted mind is on the job, the policies of his government will keep the Russian people happy and fully in support of the government.

In line with his keep-the-peasants-happy philosophy of governance, Vladimir the Most Generous and Compassionate took pride in his past and projected increases in state pensions, welfare programs, and the birth incentive scheme.  In addition, the workers and peasants could take joy in the proposed weapons acquisition program, the best part of a trillion dollars over the next five or so years.  The same constituency would receive benefits beyond counting from the Putin Economic Diversification Plan which would reduce Russia's dependency on resource exploitation.  (This served to steal some of Medvedev's thunder as he has been plumping this approach for years now.)

While Good Czar Vladimir did not name any specific "foreign threat," the repeated references to such plays well to the natural and historically deeply rooted Russian fear of invasion.  There are several candidates for the title of "main enemy."

One, of course, is the old standby, the US.  The technological asymmetries between the US and Russian military forces do not operate to Russia's advantage.  The aging and decrepit nature of so much of the old Soviet military machine particularly in the strategic and force projection categories must be worrisome to a crew given to paranoia.  The difficulties experienced to date in bringing a new ICBM online have done nothing to reduce the apprehensions of American superiority rampant in the highest levels of Russian political and military life.  While the Boys in the Kremlin know perfectly well they have nothing to fear from the current American administration, they cannot be sure that We the People will not toss another George W. Bush, or, worse, Ronald Reagan, into the Oval.

A credible alternative is China.  Putin along with the entire military high command is very well aware that the vast majority of China's nuclear delivery systems have Russian zip codes in their reentry vehicles.  They also fret over the basing of the large and increasingly competent Peoples Liberation Army.  It is clear from the locations of the bases that China is not poised to go to war with Vietnam--or India.  So, much as the US is getting Xanax moments from China's adventures in naval construction, the Russians are having an even larger need for Valium from the positioning of the ground combat forces.

There is a prevalent, vague anxiety over the intents of NATO and the EU with respect to the "near abroad," those constituents of the former Soviet Union which have gone their own independent ways since the early Nineties.  The Kremlin will not be ready to sleep with any degree of soundness unless and until it has reestablished operational dominance over places such as Georgia and the Ukraine.  Strategists in Putin's service undoubtedly see these former glacis states as potential points of conflict between Russia and an expansionist oriented NATO/EU combine.  (Hey! Paranoia does not require realism simply rationality.)

Then there are the Muslims.  The ongoing operations against purveyors of violent political Islam in the North Caucasus represent but one part of the emerging challenge presented by militant Islam.  The difficulties currently experienced by several of the now independent Central Asian Republics have already spilled over into Russia and show strong signs of doing more of the same in the near future.  Coupled with ideological appeal and backed by Iran, the advocates of violent political Islam are poised to be a "foreign threat" without equal.  They are a "main enemy" in the process of being created.

Vladimir Putin is a vastly skilled and able Russian politician.  He understands nationalism of the Russian sort and uses it to advance his claim on the throne.  As a Russian nationalist he is guided in foreign affairs by one guiding principle--the national interests of Russia.  Given the high probability of his being elected president once again next year, there is a strong likelihood the US will be dealing with him for some years to come.  In a way he is the best possible interlocutor for the US to have in the Kremlin.  He is a prime example of what you see is what you get.  This means he will continue to be a very difficult person with whom to make a diplomatic deal, but his motives and goals will never be obscure or hazy--and once he has made a deal he will stick with it, provided such is in Russia's national interest.

The Deep Thinkers of the Obama administration would be well advised to parse Putin's speech very closely and carefully.  To do so is to understand the man and his policy context.  To blow off his speech as mere politics, or to deprecate Putin as an imitation Western politician is to do him and us a great disservice.  Vladimir is not just another politician or one more Russian dictator.  No, he is the Good Czar, and a Good Czar with a totally Russian soul.