The House Of Saud Is Getting Very, Very Worried

Perhaps the best sign of growing Saudi anxiety over the near future is the recall of the legendary Prince Bandar from the diplomatic/political purgatory he has inhabited for the past several years.  Bandar's record in the many jobs he has held including a lengthy and very productive stint as the Kingdom's ambassador to the US shows him to be a man of unusual boldness, resourcefulness, and determination.  Given the way in which regional affairs have been going rapidly and steadily south from the perspective of Riyadh, it was a certainty that Bandar would be brought back, the Kingdom's diplomatic cavalry in action.

The single greatest reason for the return of Bandar and the incipient panic in the House of Saud reflected in his recall is the firm belief that the US is currently run by a crew of notably inept, incompetent, unrealistic, naive folks who have no clue regarding the merciless nature of the environment of the Mideast and Persian Gulf.  The Saudi elite have reached the conclusion that more than ever they are on their own, that the US has abandoned its relationship with the Kingdom.  Even if that is not completely true, the behavior of the Obama administration and the president personally have demonstrated that there is no accurate understanding of the existential contest between Saudi Arabia and Iran.

Rightly or wrongly (and the former is far more likely than the latter), the Saudi government is convinced that Iran is playing for keeps, that the mullahs have the near- to mid-term goal of becoming the regional hegemon and the long-term ambition of seeing Shia replace Sunni as the dominant form of Islam.  This would include the Shiites (takfir, the lot of them) taking control of the Land of the Two Mosques.  In the estimate of the Saudis this would mean not only the end of the Kingdom, but the end of Wahhibism, indeed the end of Islam as the world currently knows it.

That, bucko, adds up to existential with a capital "E."

In the eyes of the House of Saud, the Obama administration has been tried in the balance and found wanting during the episodes constituting the "Arab Spring."  Not even personal massaging (and messaging) by Secretary Gates or the National Security Advisor can change the reality that the US eased the exit of Hosni Mubarak, that the US has been far less than resolute in seeking the removal of Saudi bete noir Gaddafi, that the US has been confining its disapproval of Syria (seen by the Saudis as an Iranian viper in the Arab house) to boilerplate platitudes, or that the US has been irresolute to say the least in its support of Saudi client Bahrain.

According to the Saudi scorecard, the US is 0 for 4--0 for 5 if Yemen is included.

Enter Prince Bandar.  The first mission the prince undertook was a series of quick trips to Pakistan, China, and Russia.  Ostensibly these were for the purpose of shoring up diplomatic support for the Kingdom, and, indeed, that was no doubt part of the Bandar brief.  But it was not the only part.

Years ago Prince Bandar covertly arranged the sale by China of medium range missiles without the knowledge let alone the consent of the US.  The resulting storm with Israel was settled by the US, and the Saudis won a significant increase in both their arsenal and diplomatic clout.  Considering the Saudis have been buying weapons by the freighter load from countries as diverse as the US and Spain, there is no reason to believe the prince was not exploring what hardware the Chinese might have to offer.

The same is true with respect to Russia.  The Russian arms industry is no slouch in the quality department--at least in some areas of production.  And, they deliver a lot more potential bang for the buck--without any nasty diplomatic or political diversions as is so often the case with the US.  Nor would Russian weapons and munitions be confined necessarily to what might be delicately termed "conventional."

Now for Pakistan.  It is very well known that Saudi Arabia funded the extensive Wahhibist "outreach" program at the behest of Zia.  Not as well known but equally critical to the state of play today is that Saudi petrodollars underwrote much of the cost of the Pakistani nuclear weapons program.  Now a "quid" of that magnitude does not come without a suitable "pro quo."

While the prince might have been jawing with the lads in Islamabad only to assure diplomatic understanding or to arrange the importation of good Sunni security personnel to crack Shiite heads in Bahrain or the Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia, it is doubtful that anyone would be surprised if there was some talk about when and under what conditions a portion of the Pakistani nuclear arsenal would be "forward deployed" in the Kingdom as a counter to Iranian ambitions.

An understanding of this sort would confer benefits on both Saudi Arabia and Pakistan.  Both are concerned about an emergent, nuclear armed Iran.  The posting of some nuclear weapons on Saudi soil would complicate the task of forcible nuclear disarmament of Pakistan.  And, Pakistan would gain diplomatic leverage by being seen as co-guarantor with the Saudis of the continued Sunni possession of the Two Mosques.  Mutual needs and mutual ambitions could be met with one grand bargain.

As a further benefit, the mere threat of a Saudi "forward basing" of Pakistani nukes would send a very firm and unmistakable warning message to the US.  The message boils down to: There are very grave dangers in a world where the US sits passive on the sidelines.

Peace, love, flower power, and the UN are all nice, warm, fuzzy notions.  They make a person feel good just considering them.  But, they are darn poor predicates for foreign and national security policy.  The Obama love affair with a "humble" US and an assertive UN may sit well with touchy-feely segments of the American and Western European elites, but they are totally irrelevant in the very tough neighborhood inhabited by Saudi Arabia.

Prince Bandar is the right man to take bold, even over-the-edge actions calculated to shock the US into a more realistic course of action in the Mideast and Persian Gulf.  The most likely actions for Bandar to pursue are those which are "fail-safe" from the Saudi vantage point.  An understanding on nuclear weapons--or even the grey market procurement of such--represents a proper "fail-safe" approach.  Either the US wakes up and smells the coffee or, at the worst, Riyadh has the mechanisms necessary to counter the potential Iranian nuclear capacity--and the diplomatic implications of this.

Bandar's arrival back in the center of Saudi decision making assures there will be additional pressures brought to bear on the Obama "team" to get off the dime in both Libya and Syria.  The will and ability of the US to do something about these two Saudi adversaries speaks volumes concerning the American capacity and willingness to do something about Iran when such proves absolutely necessary.  There will also be additional pressure on the Nice Young Man From Chicago to come down on the right side in Bahrain.

The outlines of a deal are hinted here.  Obama moves hard against both Gaddafi and Assad so he has the political freedom to overlook the repression in Bahrain.  From the perspective of a man with the balls and brains of Bandar this is a perfect deal.

Of course it will look quite different from the point of view held by the Guy in the Oval who is notably deficient in the very areas where Prince Bandar is arguably overendowed.