The government and military of Pakistan is continuing its campaigns of lies and extortion. That is as self-evident as the size of the US budget deficit. It is also self-evident that Pakistan will keep on with its dual track approach of prevarication and extortion because it has no alternative.
The Chairman of the JCS, Admiral Mike Mullen, grabbed the stinging nettle the other day when he stated categorically in the Pakistani English language newspaper Dawn as well as the TV service Geo that we knew perfectly well that the Directorate of Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) maintained its ongoing relationship with the Haqqani network, the most deadly American adversary in Afghanistan. The long-standing and very strong connection between ISI and the Haqqani crew has been the worst kept secret in Washington for years now. Mullen, bringing it into the open on an official level only hours before meeting mano a mano with his Pakistani counterpart, did the cause of honesty between alleged allies a great and long overdue service.
The response from the government and military of Pakistan was not one of either embarrassed silence or humiliating acknowledgement of the truth of the allegation. Of course not. The Army Chief of Staff, Ashfaq Kayani, was quoted as denouncing the Mullen statement as "negative propaganda." The brazen effrontery of the general would be breath taking had it come from anyone other than a senior Pakistani official.
However, bald face lying is a tried and true approach practiced by Pakistani officials in and out of uniform. The finance minister, straight face firmly in place, averred that it was "largely a myth" that Pakistan had received billions of US dollars in aid from the Great Cash Cow pastured in Washington, DC. In the real world, the US has provided twenty or so billion bucks in the years since 9/11. Of this mountain of money, roughly half has come under the auspices of the program entitled "Coalition Support Funds." Much of the money shifted to Islamabad under this program has been not been properly documented or accounted for.
Other funds have flowed under other programs such as the civilian development oriented Kerry-Lugar-Berman bill. Still more money has been expended under assorted military assistance programs including those which have provided Pakistan with big ticket items such as F-16s with little utility in counterinsurgency or counterterrorism efforts. In short, the money has been authorized, appropriated, and in major part expended all to the benefit of Pakistan. Still, the finance minister felt obliged to carry on with a lie so humongous as to make Dr Goebbels blush.
On the extortion side of the twin prong offensive, the Pakistanis have reiterated their demands for more intelligence sharing on the part of the US--allegedly so the Paks can get on with the job of acting upon it--and transferring our UAV technology to Pakistan--supposedly so that they and not us can use Predators and Reapers to take out Haqqani network and Taliban figures in the FATA. Actually these demands are not simply extortionate, they are part of the keep-on-lying tactic.
The Pakistanis want access to our most sensitive intelligence sources, methods, and practices so that Islamabad will know all that we know about the connections between Pakistan and the assorted groups under the protection of ISI. After all, the highest goal of any intelligence service is finding out in detail what the enemy's spooks know and don't know about your operations. As KGB bent every effort to penetrate MI6, MI5, OSS, and CIA, so now does Pakistan's ISI want to penetrate our intelligence operations. There is no desire to act upon American intelligence with any goal in mind other than better protecting and facilitating the operations of the Haqqani network and other like minded groups. (Sure, the Paks would use our information to neutralize individuals or sub-groups that have wandered too far off the reservation, but that is scarcely a benefit from our point of view.)
The Pakistani military has long drooled after our UAVs. The generals and the spooks have had a perpetual case of the woodies ever since the first Predator launched its first Hellfire. From their perspective, the UAVs represent a fine way of countering the Indian doctrine of "Cold Start," even better by being lower signature than their new short range battlefield missiles. One must never forget that India and only India is the "main enemy" in the estimate of the Pakistani military.
The US has offered to provide Pakistan with eighty-five Ravens. These small, short range, and non-lethal UAVs are "drones" and thus meet the demand for access. It is doubtful that the Pakistanis will be satisfied with this sop. Eighty-five Ravens do not change the calculus of forces as between India and the Muslim Republic.
After his carefully titrated dose of honesty, Admiral Mullen went back onto the standard message. Our relationship with Pakistan is strong. They are our close and important allies in the war on terror. Pakistan's cooperation is critical for success in Afghanistan. Stopping terror in the FATA is the key to universal and permanent peace. Yadda-yadda, dabba-dabba-do and harrumph!
Let's get down, dirty, and honest here. The US could get out of Afghanistan right now without any real decrement in its security. It could leave that sorry piece of real estate without any meaningful increase in the risk of terror acts directed at the American homeland. True, it would be better if we were to engage in one hellacious crescendo of lethal violence directed at each and every important al-Qaeda, Taliban, and Haqqani network figure we could pinpoint. It would be preferable if, so to speak, we leave doing what we should have done when we first went in--launch a destructively punitive blow at the bad guys of violent political Islam.
This means admitting reality. Afghanistan will become what it both wants to be and will be forced by the Pakistanis to be--an Islamic nation living in a hollow state. The FATA will remain what Islamabad wants it to be--the safe haven of violent political Islam. Both are acceptable outcomes provided the government and military of Pakistan understand that should any jihadist with any connection to either the FATA or Pakistan dominated Afghanistan harm a hair on Uncle Sam's head, we will be back. Back not as an occupation force or a nation-building crew but as a destructive force of such a punishing nature as to make the floods and cyclones of the past appear to be gentle love pats from a benign mother nature.
It would not harm our interests either short- or long-term interests if the lying extortionists of Islamabad were made to understand and appreciate that our interests and those of India were far more closely coincident than were ours and those of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan. In truth we have been cozying up too close for too long with the loser on the sub-continent. India and the US have far more shared norms and values, far more coinciding interests. Tilting ever more in the direction of India is in our interests--and against those of Pakistan.
Consider that last sentence for a moment. It suggests a viable alternative should the Obama administration demonstrate its ongoing inability to play hard ball. We too can play the extortion game. Give Pakistan an option: Islamabad can either both sit down and shut up, get serious in the FATA and squash the Haqqanis and the others, or we will well and truly tilt more in the direction of India. A closer alliance between India and the US would give the army and government of Pakistan something very, very important to think about. At the very least, it would make their dream of another rematch with India a suicidal folly. At most, it would empower India in Afghanistan thus further cutting back on Pakistan's goal of strategic depth and a sphere of influence in the Islamic nations of the Central Asian Republics.
This tilt-to-India threat is a hard ball option but one which does not run the political risks of simply getting the hell out of Afghanistan. As such it is a rational and realistic way to overcome the Pakistani's game of lie and extort. But, its realism alone means the Obama administration would never consider it. More's the pity.
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