The current administration clearly can't get a grip on the difference between feces and shoe polish. This unpleasant fact is singularly true regarding what countries are allies in the current fight with Islamists/Jihadists.
Yemen is the current poster child for the current administration's lost-in-space view of what constitutes an ally.
Two days ago, the Commander Guy was reported in the Yemen Times to have sent a message via his Special Assistant for Internal Security and Combating Terrorism, Francis Townsend. The message was purported to congratulate the Yemeni government for "it's success in combating terrorism." See, http://yementimes.com/article.shtml?i=1097&p=front&a=1.
The message also contained promises to continue US aid for Yemeni projects in economic development, education, security and military assistance, and "fighting against terrorism." This hearty expression of praise and aid came in the context of a meeting between Yemeni and American counter-terrorism wallahs.
At the meeting one Mohammed Salah, who is the capo-in-chief of the Central Security Forces, said Yemen stood ready (and, maybe, perhaps, kind of willing and able) to "provide assistance and expertise" in the area of counter-terrorism.
Yeah. Right. And, just what sort of "expertise?" What kind of "assistance?"
Jamal al-Badawi, the man convicted in a Yemeni court for having been the chief planner of the bombing of the USS Cole, had turned himself in to Yemeni authorities a week before this love fest of mutual assistance. He had apparently become tired and bored with life as a fugitive after his second successful jail break.
There is no doubt but al-Badawi is a genuine, bottled-in-bond, triple x, super-refined, Grade A Jihadist. He is a serious blackhat. Always has been. In all probability, he always will be.
The "expert" Yemenis cut him loose only two days after Special Assistant Townsend delivered the Commander Guy's kissy-kissy communication.
The experienced and expert Yemeni government isn't saying why they cut the man loose from the horrors of life in the slam. They aren't really confirming or denying whether al-Badawi is under some sort of house arrest. The most this trusted ally in the counter-terrorism arena will say is that al-Badawi has renounced terrorism and really, really promised to be a very, very nice guy in the future.
Al-Badawi himself isn't talking in public. He is reported to be entertaining guests in his house in Aden. Probably regaling them with tales of his exciting life in the desert living with the Tribal types who kept him safe until working out a deal with the expert counter-terrorists in the Yemeni government. (Of course, he might be working on his next little bomb-in-the-boat caper.)
If the Yemenis aren't saying much, their silence is more than compensated for by the screeches from the campaign trail and the howls from the Justice Department.
There is a five megabuck price on Jamal al-Badawi's head. He's on the Feeb's Ten Most Wanted List. There is a lengthy indictment waiting for him in the US. With this as a backdrop, Rudi Giuliani demanded a halt to all aid to Yemen until al-Badawi is rearrested.
Wow! That's telling 'em, Rudy.
What is the US going to do if the Yemeni regime does not respond appropriately to either the statement of "extreme displeasure" delivered by our Ambassador or even an aid cut off?
You gotta remember that the Yemenis are great believers in hospitality, just like the Afghans back in 2002. You also have to remember that al-Badawi has reportedly sworn loyalty to Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh. Loyalty can be--and usually is in tribally based Islamic societies--a two way street.
Now, get a grip on this.
Yemen, no more than Saudi Arabia, is an ally of the US in the confrontation between Islamism and the West. That was obvious in the aftermath of the attack on the USS Cole. Yemeni officials, those experienced and expert on regional counter-terrorism, were notably uncooperative with the FBI and other American investigative or intelligence agencies. Nothing substantial has changed since then.
"How come?" You ask.
Yemen, not unlike Afghanistan, is not really a nation-state as that is understood in the West, or most of the world. It is a geographic expression, which came into its present incarnation back in 1990 when the Peoples' Democratic Republic of Yemen stopped its festering multi-decade war with North Yemen. Its current boundary with Saudi Arabia was fixed only seven years ago.
Its population is young (median age is slightly less than seventeen). Its land is mostly barren, short on water. Yemen is one of the poorest, if not the poorest country in the Arab world, with a per person GDP of roughly $1,000 last year. Wahhabism is the predominant brand of Islam practiced.
In short, the government lacks stability. The population can and has turned restive (to put it politely) when its all too easily perturbed emotional balance is tipped in the slightest.
Al-Badawi is a popular hero to many of the young Yemeni dudes without a real hope of a genuine future and a past deeply rooted in tribalism, Wahhabism, and violence.
Making sense now, isn't it?
Even if the Yemeni government wanted for reasons of its own to cooperate fully with the US not only with regard to al-Badawi's future but the whole spectrum of counter-terrorism issues, it could not. Not without slitting its own throat.
The Commander Guy should have known all of the above (and probably did) before sending the unrealistically fulsome message to the Yemeni government. Not unlike the ambiguous message delivered to Saddam Hussein by our new Ambassador in 1990, the recipient probably concluded that it had a free hand in dealing with al-Badawi. With (unseemly) haste, the Yemeni leadership honored its agreement with the tribal elders and cut the convicted terrorist loose.
To repeat the key question: Now what are we Americans going to do if the Saana regime doesn't rearrest al-Badawi and deliver him to our justice system?
The last time the US faced this type of problem we resolved it by invading. More than five years later the object of that combination of SWAT raid and regime change is still free, making audio tapes by the bushel, and we are still slogging up hill trying to create a nation-state in Afghanistan.
Is this an option now? The Commander Guy and his neocon ninny brigade better scratch their heads long and hard.
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2 comments:
Geek:
Got to learn to play this game. Look, you know this guy does not have "Live Long and Prosper" written into his future.
As long as he was officially in custody (in Yemen), he was somewhat "protected". Guess what, he's out there in the wild now. He'd be very, very, very wise to have some sort of a deal cut with some very hardened and in the shadows type operators, because life is not going to be all sweetness & light for the likes of him.
I'm going to be willing to wait on this one, because I don't think he's going to be long for the world, and secondly, if I were his among his "buds", I'd be very worried about getting tagged as being part of his posse. Really good way to find yourself DEAD.
I read that message as political double speak for something along the lines of "We understand this guy is serious political trouble for you. So, just push him out there into the open, make the appropriate feel-good pronouncements, and we'll take care of the rest. Oh, and this is very important - you have to protest our unilateral actions vehemently when they occur. Have a nice day".
There's ways.
The Geek really wishes the world ran that way--or that the current administration was smart enough to make it run that way. Unfortunately, based on his experience both practical and vicarious, the Geek is convinced the realities are far different.
The Yemeni regime is between a harder rock and a sharper hard place than is the Saudi House of Sand. There is little doubt that they would like al-Badawi to cop it courtesy of a convenient Predator a la the late and quite unlamented al-Qaeda dudes a while back. That way the regime would have honored its agreement with the Tribal capos and rid itself of an embarrassment without the further delay of extradition and trial, etc with all the attendant public hue and cry.
The Geek would like it to go down that way as well. Having said that the Geek holds fast to his relatively poor assessment of the current administration. Cheney might like to arrange matters as is suggested, but there are countervailing views--any of whom would love to leak to the press.
Actually, should it turn out that the current administration is smart enough to have worked with the Yemenis in pulling off this deal and al-Badawi ends up as a protoplasmic smear on the sand after the Hellfire hits, the Geek will give the current administration two thumbs up. But, he ain't holding his breath.
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