The "They" in this case is the pretend parliament of the pretend state, Somalia. In a move totally lacking in either surprise or rationality, the parliament of the Somalian Transitional National something or another unanimously passed the imposition of Sharia on the "country." The move was explained as was the earlier approval of the measure by the cabinet as a being a way of appeasing the Islamist jihadists of al-Shabab.
As has been said many times before, appeasement is like tossing raw meat to a wolf in the expectation that by so doing the wolf will become a vegetarian.
The Transitional National Something or Another (TNSoA) will have to do a powerful lot of appeasing. It effectively controls a few blocks in what was once downtown Mogadishu. The Islamist jihadists of al-Shabab have nearly all of southern and central Somalia under their gun--and version of Sharia.
Failing this, the fall-back position has been the assertion that by embracing Sharia as the basis of Somali law, moderate Islamists and Sufis will be mobilized to support the TNSoA.
Right. Fer sure, dudes.
These two positions were also invoked to justify the selection of Sheik Sharaf Sheik Ahmed as the capo d'tutti capi of the TNSoA. Sheik Ahmed is a "moderate" Islamist who was once the Grand Panjandrum of al-Shabab. His selection was presumed to be an appeasement of his one-time followers.
The current al-Shabab heavies made a collective rude gesture and kept on shooting, bombing and stoning women. A motley crew of Sufi and "moderate" Islamists gave rhetorical support to the Sheik. At least they used his selection as Maximum Leader to excuse self-interested shooting back at the al-Shabab gun thugs.
There is just one little problem with the expectations expressed by the TNSoA.
The appeasement won't work. That reality is inherent.
Sharia is susceptible to human interpretation as is any and every system of jurisprudance. The Sharia of the TNSoA may be indistinguishable in application from that of al-Shabab. The difference between Brand A and Brand B versions of Sharia will be nonexistent. In that case why not just let al-Shabab take over? At the least lives will be saved--for now.
In the event the TNSoA version of Sharia is less repressive in application, less oppressive in effect, then there is no reason to believe that the True Believers of al-Shabab will toss in the Koran and go back to whatever peaceful pursuits they followed before going on Allah's War. Right now al-Shabab has power. It is feared. Further, it is winning. Without a strong, strong inducement extending far beyond the mere adoption of Sharia, even all-the-way-and-then-some Sharia, there is no reason to give up the pleasures of killing, raping, stealing and generally raising merry hell in the finest traditions of Somali history.
As has been seen dramatically in Pakistan, appeasement comes a cropper from the very moment it is attempted. The government of Pakistan effectively surrendered to the Islamist jihadists of Swat. They have their much desired Sharia. No woman is safe. Neither is any man who doesn't want to grow a beard. Neither is any video store, Internet cafe or other business which is not fully Sharia approved.
Did that satisfy the Islamists?
Don't be silly. Of course not. Islamists are total in their goals. Swat was not and never could be enough to satisfy them. Now they want the entire country to go Sharia Heavy. Even were that to come to pass, the Islamists would have more demands. They would go from demand to demand until the last slice of the Pakistani salami disappeared down Islamist throats.
It is this reality which puts the lie to those who aver that the ending of Somali piracy can only happen when Somalia has a fully functioning and effective government capable of enforcing the law (of course, only that which is fully compliant with Sharia) and providing meaningful employment to the young men of Somalia. Not even the endorsement of this position by SecDef Gates makes it right.
Sharia allows piracy. The limitation is that the piracy must be directed against the ships of infidels and apostates. The ever-so-Muslim Ottoman Empire had no problems with such of its outlying territories as Tunis engaging in systematic, government sponsored and run piracy as long as the ships and crews seized and enslaved were not Islamic (and Istanbul got its share of the vigorish.)
Historically there have been few ways of making money in Somalia beyond subsistance agriculture and herding. One has been conducting trade in exotic African commodities such as ivory. A second has been dealing in slaves, particularly the transport of Africans to the Arabian states. The third was piracy.
While the trade in body parts from African animals has been reduced in recent years, it still exists. The same can be said regarding human trafficking. But, both of these avenues of enterprise can employ only a few.
Piracy is the big employer. The big money maker. This will not change when Somalia gets a government--if it ever does. Too much must not be made of the few months during which the Union of Islamic Courts functioned as a central government. While, as is to be expected, apologists for the UIC insist that it eradicated piracy and would do so again under the name of al-Shabab, the reality is that conditions in the transitory regime of the UIC were too chaotic for piracy to emerge on an industrial level as has been the case more recently.
The way piracy is stopped is to make it unprofitable compared to the risks involved. This means interdicting pirate boats before they can seize a target. It means killing pirates to either prevent seizures or to recapture ships from them. It means pursuing pirates wherever and whenever they are located. Killing them if they resist. Trying, convicting and jailing them if they don't. Above all, it means preventing ship owners or insurance firms from paying ransoms.
The French and the Americans have shown how it can be done. So also have the Dutch--to a limited extent. A Dutch commando unit (probably Dutch Marines, a completely professional and tough bunch as the Geek knows from personal experience) captured a pirate "mothership." They liberated the captive Yemeni crew. Then, after disarming the pirates, the Dutch cut them loose.
Dutch law gave no alternative. But, the Dutch may have another bite at the apple. Pirates have captured a dredger with a Dutch citizen as a member of the crew. The hijack took place over three hundred miles from Somalia. The dredger is under surveillance by US and other nations' assets.
Dutch law allows the arrest of pirates if one of the victims has Dutch citizenship. One can only hope that the Dutch warship, The Seven Provinces, is underway at flank speed to the present location of the captive dredge. And, that the commandos on board are good-for-go one more time.
The new breed of pirates must be taught the lesson finally learned by pirates of past centuries. Every man's hand is against them. The only sure reward for piracy is berth space in Davy Jones' Locker.
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