More to the point, just what sort of person does the President think is running the Theocratic State of Iran? To sharpen matters further: Does the President really, really believe that the Shia mullahs in charge of the show in Iran will suddenly shift from ideologically driven True Believers with a clear agenda into a passel of peace, love, and flower-power advocates of "give peace a chance" and "ban the bomb?"
If, indeed, the POTUS is not living in an alternative world filled with great gaseous clouds of wishful thinking riding blissfully on the winds of ignorance, then how does one explain the latest wrinkle in what passes for US policy toward what is arguably the most dangerous state on Earth?
Consider that the G-8, according to the Italian Prime Minister, Silvio Berlusconi, is leaning toward far tougher sanctions against the mullahocracy including an absolute bar on trading in refined petroleum products with Iran. Consider further that the US is reportedly opposed to such an escalation in pressure.
Why?
Good question. The answer according to the usual anonymous but well placed US source is that such a ramp up in sanctions could backfire bringing results opposite to those desired. OMG!! You mean if the West gets tough on the mullahs, they will become even more extreme?
You gotta be kidding. Just what do the Deep Thinkers in the Obama administration believe is happening in Iran right now, this minute? Do some or all of this out-to-lunch crew really, truly think that the affairs in Iran are being directed by moderate, rational men who understand negotiation and compromise are the desired, even the necessary, means and outcome of political affairs both foreign and domestic?
There are any number of good reasons to avoid the brutal reality represented by the Iranian government. There are good reasons to wish, to hope, to pray (should one be of that inclination) that the military option remains forever unused.
But, acting in a way which seems almost carefully calculated to result ultimately in the stark choice between war a bit too late and surrender under whatsoever rubric to the dictates of a regime which is deeply and virtually irredeemably hostile to the US and the rest of the West is not one of those reasons.
Indeed, to back off from finally imposing financial and trade sanctions which will actually harm, genuinely impair, and even grievously undercut the capacity of the Iranian regime to pursue its ends is to invite the unthinkable--the employment of force against the regime and its nuclear weapons related facilities. The Obama administration must contain within its extensive ranks some person of sufficient seniority to get across the necessary understanding of reality.
The reality is simply this, get a grip on it. The last, best chance to peacefully modify Iranian behavior is the imposition of authentically crippling sanctions. This is what the G-8 ministers and at least some heads of state are proposing.
Yes, a real sanction blockade will hurt German, French, Chinese, and even American business interests. The "Billion Dollar Club" will be denied a very great deal of money. This will hurt and one can hear the screams of pain even now when the notion of toughened sanctions is simply an idea being discussed--and opposed by the Obama administration. However, much as the loss of trade will hurt, the real pain will finally be felt in Iran.
Not only should there be a complete and absolute restriction of trade in refined petroleum products, the embargo must be extended to all categories of manufactured goods. It should be extended to foodstuffs as well even though this will cause suffering among the Iranians on the street. The embargo must be both direct and indirect, that is, it must provided for automatic sanctions to be directed against any business or country which violates the primary embargo.
Anything less will prolong the political suffering in Iran as well as fail to solve the very real problem presented by the ambitions and strategies of the Iranian regime. The mullahs must finally understand that there are limits to the utility of intransigence.
Thirty years of intransigence, violation of diplomatic norms, saber-waving bluster, and support for proxies with bloody hands have so far worked quite well for the turban-topped, Koran-thumping mullahocracy. For thirty years the True Believers of Qom and Tehran have depended upon the weak will and war-averse inclination of Western countries to facilitate their ambitions. For thirty years they have been right.
Nothing will change for the better in Iran absent effective coercion applied from without. The present situation combining a clear and growing threat to the peace of the world and a blatantly stolen election followed by a barrage of repression and transparent lying which surpasses any seen before from Tehran provides the proper opportunity for the thirty years of accommodation, appeasement, and misplaced emphasis upon domestic economic interests to end.
The time is ripe for effective collective action, action which can be forced upon the less willing such as Germany and Russia. Collective action which can be focused on the most critical weak points of Iran--refined petroleum and food. Collective action which might, just might, have the force multiplying effect of bracing the emergent Iranian loss of faith in the Islamic Revolution.
Collective action, which is the only possibility to see desired changes in Iran without going to war. Collective action, which demands complete American support if it is to have any hope of working.
That means the Obama administration must get a grip on the stinging nettle of reality. The administration must rid itself of any notion that the "extremists" are not currently running the government. That shouldn't be hard. No "moderate" would do what the Iranian government has done on and after 12 June 09. If the actions and words of the mullahocracy and its mouthpieces do not spell "extremist," then the word has no useful definition.
Come on, Mr Obama, come on back to Earth with its warts, unpleasantness, and contrariness. Now is not the time to contemplate your navel in some alternative world. Take the lead! Go to the G-8 and demand the toughest sanction program the world has ever seen. Demand and use all your personal and institutional tools to gain full and complete adherence.
Go and do all you can, or you will go down in history either as the next wartime president or, worse, the greatest sell-out of national (and global) interest on record.
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