India's New SSBN--Threat To Stability?

India launched its first nuclear powered submarine in a flurry of publicity the other day. The boat which is at least three years worth of sea trials away from acceptance as a combat unit in the Indian navy was built entirely in India--with Russian assistance. It and its cargo of short range ballistic missiles are a prestige item to be sure.

The question is whether or not the boat, whose name translates as "Destroyer of Enemies" is either a useful weapons system or an inherently destabilizing factor in the region or both.

The Pakistani government clearly sees the "Destroyer of Enemies" as a destroyer of the strategic balance between the two rivals as it gives India a survivable retaliatory capacity. At least in principle it does.

The Islamabad government is attempting to rouse support for its position in the region by alleging that the new Indian SSBN is a potential threat to all neighboring (Muslim) states. Not surprisingly the Indians deny this.

Barely pausing for breath as the Indians re-emphasized the non-threatening intent of the sub, the Pakistanis raised the spectre of a new regional "arms race." The Pakistanis need to get a grip.

The "destroyer of enemies" is more a technology demonstrator and a show-the-flag project than it is a useful system. Its missiles are very short range. Its capacity to launch submerged remains to be seen. The speed with which the Indians can increase the range and payload of the boat's missiles is yet to be seen. Also awaiting the future is the ability of the Indians to bring more SSBNs on line and the speed with which they can do this.

Building more boats will take time. A lot of time. It will take experience with the lead unit of the proposed class. A long period will necessarily ensue before the Indians can claim the possession of a legitimate seaborne leg of their nuclear triad.

Time brings with it the potential for change. Change in the relations of the two old enemies brought about by the common threat of Islamist jihadists. Change brought about by a common apprehension about Iran. Time to realise that even the limited nuclear exchange which can be executed by India and Pakistan is a death sentence for both. Time to realise that the nuclear arsenals are far less useful than their expense warrants.

It is unfortunate that the Indians launched their new toy in the immediate aftermath of the first small steps toward rapprochement between it and Pakistan only days ago at Sharm al-Sheik. The launch is an unnecessary impediment to the selling of even this limited understanding to the Pakistanis (although it will assist the Indian PM getting this unpopular move through the Indian parliament.)

Cooler heads have to prevail in Islamabad. The Indian tech demonstrator does nothing to alter the strategic balance. Neither does it pose any threat to regional stability.

The Pakistani navy should look on the bright side. Maybe they can extort some money out of the US to fund new anti-submarine warfare vessels or something like that. See, even non-threats have an up side.