Meanwhile In The North Caucasus...

The Kremlin hates to be outpointed, really doesn't like being one upped by the Imperialist Camp.  OK, so Putin did congratulate the US on the Great Abbottabad Raid, but he had to spoil the moment by suggesting that his boys and ours get together on a joint campaign against, well, you know, those pesky terrorists.  Behind the smiles Putin and Company sought to prove that their counterterror forces were every bit as high speed, low drag as Boat Six.

The Lads in the Kremlin did have a small reason to crow over recent developments in the North Caucasus, but, regardless of the best efforts of the spin masters, the "liquidation" of a few Koran-waving trigger pullers is not equivalent to sending Osama bin Laden to his rewards.  April proved to be a very good month for the forces of law and order (or the Russian equivalents thereof.)

Around mid-month the security forces liquidated (don't you love that term?) Israpil Validzhanov.  Israpil had been the jefe grande of Dagestani jamaat, the major exponent of violent political Islam in Dagestan before his final, fatal encounter with FSB operatives.  This was followed on 23 April by the removal of a high profile genuine foreign fighter, an Arab who went by the moniker of Emir Mukhannad.  This Mighty Warrior of the Prophet was a leading (and very controversial) figure in the Chechen Islamist insurgency.

Six days later the adherents of violent political Islam (the Kabardino-Balkaria jamaat) took a very large hit in their leadership echelon when the security forces hit a house in the outskirts of the village of Progress (no joke, that is the name).  When the shooting stopped some hours later, the occupants of the house were all dead--a total of eight men and two women.  The dead were identified as having been the leaders of the group.

In the aftermath of the firefight, the Russian authorities did what so many US prosecutors do--greatly inflate the charges.  The dead men (and women) were held responsible for almost every terrorist operations other than 9/11, 7/7, and the Madrid Subway bombing.  The insurgent group confirmed both the deaths and the critical leadership roles performed by the deceased.

Allowing for the normal Soviet--oops! Bad Geek!--Russian tendency to inflate accomplishments, the dead were very bad actors and the region is better off without them.  What is open to question now is whether or not the government will be able to capitalize on the confusion within insurgent ranks this decapitation operation must necessarily produce.  Based on past experience the prognosis in this area is not wildly optimistic.

This contention is underscored by events in Dagestan following the death of Israpil.  There the insurgents continued to mount at least one operation per day.  On occasion the Islamists oversubcribe their production norm to the embarrassment of the authorities.

During the same period Chechnya has been dominated by government efforts.  Despite some blatant missteps, the government apparently wrested and maintained the initiative.  The situation there shows repeated government initiated strikes against the insurgents.  One can conclude that Chechnya is the epicenter of a major, region wide campaign by the Kremlin to bring the political Islamists to their knees well before the next hot spot grows even hotter.

That next hot spot is the Sochi region of the former Circassian tribal area of the western Caucasus plains.  The Circassian tribes roamed far and free in this area until roughly two hundred years ago when the Russians started their long campaign of conquest.  At the present moment the critical group is the Shapsugs.  They constitute only 12,000 of the five million people living in the Krasnodar region.  This pitiful remnant is important only because (1) the upcoming Winter Olympics of 2014 and (2) there are a lot more Circassians living not too far away.

The Kremlin has started meeting with Shapsug representatives in order to "address their questions."  The Circassians have more than questions; they have a series of very serious complaints not dissimilar from those which motivated the American Indian Movement thirty plus years ago.  These include cultural destruction, poverty, lack of economic development, and the biased nature of social and political institutions and processes.

The larger Circassian population is getting increasingly restless with the Kremlin's ongoing foot dragging.  There has been at least one minor effort to internationalize the contretemps using Georgia as the mechanism.  At the minimum this will cause some pinking of faces in the Kremlin, so there will be a push back directed at Georgia, a state with few cards to play following the border skirmish of a couple of years back.  The Circassians may be hoping that Georgia will seek the aid and support of the EU and/or the US as a way of countering Russian ripostes on the Circassian question.

No matter how the specifics of the Georgia connection play out, the move constitutes an escalation in expressed nationalism on the part of the Circassians, which has taken full advantage of the impending Winter Games.  This enhanced nationalistic sentiment is also reflected in recent attempts by the Circassian National Congress to foster repatriation of Circassians from Turkey, the Mideast, and, perhaps most disturbing to the Kremlin, Libya.  Since the foundation of the modern nationalist movement in 1989, the Circassians have been moving slowly but seemingly inexorably toward a serious push for autonomy at the least and independence at the most.  Russian counter proposals have been vague, amorphous, and amount to the offer of decrees easy to cancel when the Olympics are over.

The Kremlin's strategy is obviously one of stall, delay, and equivocate.  There is little doubt that some Circassians will take this to mean that they must emulate the more robust methods used in Chechnya and elsewhere in the North Caucasus.  While there have not yet been any episodes of violence directly linked to Circassian independence, these will be coming soon.

The tipping point will most probably come when Moscow doesn't allow any significant resettlement of Circassians in the region.  To allow resettlement would be a reversal of decades of Kremlin policy as well as being against the personal inclinations of Putin.  It may be expected that Moscow will seek the cooperation of Turkey in preventing any wholesale relocation of expat Circassians.  Given the current good state of Russian-Turkish relations, it may be anticipated that Ankara will respect Russian desires in this matter.  Considering the relatively lower levels of Circassian population in the Mideast and North Africa, stopping significant migration from Turkey would put a stop to Circassian efforts to bring the tribe back home.

Should the tipping point be reached, the Kremlin will face a problem in counter insurgency rivaling or surpassing the challenges present in the North Caucasus.  This implies the security forces throughout the region must work against the clock big time.  The "siloviki" have their work cut out for them.

It's no wonder that Vladimir of the Bare Chest would like to have some cooperative counter terrorist operations with the US.  Perhaps President Obama can just offer to loan him Team Six for a few weeks?