More--And More Important--Fallout From the Death Of OBL

The end of Osama bin Laden will accelerate demands that the US ramp down its presence in Afghanistan.  Such a move fits well with the Obama agenda and reelection effort.  The more rapid the ramp down the better is the perspective of many Americans, particularly those of budget deficit hawkishness or (strange partners here) the progressive wing of the Democratic Party.

The withdrawal of sizable segments of the American force in Afghanistan would provide several collateral benefits.  One of the most important of these is an increase of leverage on the we-play-both-sides crew in Islamabad.  There is a simple equation here: Fewer troops means less need for the supply routes through Pakistan, the closure of which constitutes the only real threat the government there can levy.

Additionally, the reduction of US presence will automatically shift more of the burden for suppressing the out of control Frankenstein's monster created by ISI.  The causal chain here is less direct than that with the supply lines.  Lowering the crucial nature of the land lines of supply allows the US more freedom in lessening its extortion payments which will have the result of shifting costs on to Islamabad.  The elite in Pakistan will have the stark choice of accepting a growth of the insurgents and their brand of violent political Islam which brings with it an existential threat or paying the costs of suppressing the insurgency without significant American contributions.

The Pakistanis have been spared facing the implications of their fixation on India and reliance upon proxies motivated by violent political Islam as an operational concept.  Initially they were insulated against the consequences of folly by the dynamics of the Cold War.  Later, the events of 9/11 continued to benefit the Pakistanis.

Now the death of OBL along with the rapidly warming relations between the US and India make the old Pakistani connection irrelevant to American interests in the region.  When the prime minister of Pakistan made his recent suggestion to Karzai that both countries disengage with the US and engage with China, the Geek thought that was an excellent idea.  Certainly Pakistan has been moving ever more into the orbit of China.  The US now has the freedom to say, get on with it, pal.

The relation between the US and India is both more natural as a confluence of national interests and core values than that with Pakistan has been.  The mating of the US and Pakistan was an unnatural one, an artifact of Indian politics of the Cold War and American hyper-reactions to that.  A close relation with the US is in the interests of India and the region, far more than is the one between the US and Pakistan.

The linkage of Pakistan and China brings up another bit of fallout from the Great Abbottabad Raid.  With the death of Osama the Trolls of Beijing are once more shaking more than a little over the prospect that the US will put China back in the crosshairs.  Their fear is not without justification.

The US has gained stature and influence in Asia and the Western Pacific as China has become both more wealthy and militarily potent as well as diplomatically high profile.  The Trolls (or at least the think tanks which serve them) have become more and more convinced that China is a very lonely country with few, if any, natural allies while the US is Ms Popularity in comparison.

The Chinese have not failed to observe that the reality of American democracy is the glue which binds it with Asian democracies such as South Korea, Japan, Australia, Singapore, the Philippines, and, India.  It has hit the Trolls that democracies not only appeal to one another but feel threatened by authoritarian states, particularly those with very, very large military establishments and robust diplomatic agendas.

To the Trolls the fact that the US is a democracy means the US is automatically unpredictable over time.  Every election brings with it the possibility of a great shift in US policy in all areas.  The Chinese strategic thinkers and military strategists alike fret endlessly about this inbuilt threat of American democracy.  The fretting focuses on means by which the US can be limited, bound, or otherwise denied freedom of action on the global and regional stages.

The Trolls (or their Deep Thinkers) have also belatedly realized that the US benefits by not being a power located in Asia.  Simultaneously, it has hit the same crew that the US magnifies this benefit by having no territorial claims or ambitions in Asia--quite unlike the Chinese.  As a consequence, countries which are not democracies edge closer and closer to the US, a gravitational attraction which runs counter to Chinese strategic and national interests.

The Chinese claims on Arunachal Pradesh have no doubt reinforced India's move toward the US.  It is not coincidental that the relation has widened and deepened in a way which is positively correlated with China's military build up and diplomatic aggressiveness.  In a similar fashion the Chinese claims on some eighty percent of the South China Sea have gone a far piece to convincing Hanoi to allow bygones to be bygones and seek tighter relations with the Great Enemy Of The Vietnamese People.

Of course the Chinese have been responsible for much of the isolation confronting them.  Not since the Germany of Bismark, Wilhelm, and Adolph has a country exhibited such consistently inept diplomacy managing to either alienate or scare the hell out of almost every country in Asia to say nothing of other areas of the world.  The combination of implicit military threats, aggressive acquisition of land in faraway countries, diplomatic bluster, lack of international cooperation on such matters as Iran and North Korea, shows a state with no sense of diplomatic nuance and profound tone deafness as to the best way to win friends and influence policy.

The tub thumping of the Chinese military may even accomplish something thought impossible--cause the US to rethink seriously its love affair with the floating sovereignty behemoths called supercarriers.  Their "smart spike" ballistic missiles may (in conjunction with the budget concerns at home) cause the gradual replacement of the Nimitz class and larger ships with larger numbers of smaller, cheaper, and more competent vessels.  This would be a development to be hoped for in the most profound fashion.

Of course all of this might be moot given the problems inherent to China today.  Dropping water tables, loss of arable land, demographics, a crisis of rising expectations, the movement of American investment in physical plant and industrial production in consumer durables and capital goods back to the US, the steep increase in energy demands including refined petroleum products, the ramp up in internal suppression, the impact of new information and communication technologies may pose some well nigh onto insoluble problems for the Trolls.

With these contextual matters in mind, the Geek says, "Take Pakistan--and welcome to it."