The Army P-38 aircraft operated at extreme range. The pilots knew the target was very, very important. The Admiral made a rendezvous with the American fighters and death over the jungles of a southwest Pacific island.
His death brought a fair amount of rejoicing in the ranks of the US military. It was a fine piece of payback. The news of Yamamoto's death brought smiles all around the White House. It was a fine piece of payback.
Beyond that it is doubtful that the death of Isoroku Yamamoto had any profound effect upon the war in the Pacific. His death may have lowered the depth on the Imperial Japanese Navy's bench significantly. But, it did not lessen the Navy's will and ability to keep on fighting. Nor was the capacity of the Imperial Japanese Army's capacity and desire for fighting diminished in the slightest by the shoot-down.
The killing of Baitullah Mehsud by an American UAV launched missile will have more impact on the capacity of Taliban in Pakistan to wage war than did the death of Admiral Yamamoto in the gunsights of a P-38 pilot. While Taliban's capacity to fight may be impaired at least slightly and temporarily by the Hellfire-up-the-butt attack, the jihadist group's will to fight remains intact, perhaps even strengthened.
Taliban is an irregular force. That means it is far more personality dependent in its operational efficiency than is a regular army. Lacking the mechanisms for orderly replacement of top leadership levels, there is a strong, even a very strong, probability that Taliban will suffer a period of organisational perturbation.
Disruption at the senior and mid-levels will result in deep and perhaps irreversible splits occurring in the amphyctony of tribal groups which comprise the far-from-monolithic Taliban structure. This new reality opens a fine opportunity for the armed forces of Pakistan. Once the process of organisational disruption starts it is easy to accelerate--and almost impossible to stop.
Even regular, well disciplined militaries with an intact chain of command can suffer from the pernicious results of senior level lack of leadership. The German Army in August 1918 suffered a collapse of political will at its highest levels in the wake of the Battle of Amiens. The Army High Command recovered its poise after a few days. But it was too late. Organisational disruption had spread down the chain and forward to the front line units. The German Army had lost its will and thus its ability for waging war effectively. It was defeated in all but formalities.
If the Pakistani army and government seize the (American provided) golden opportunity with a fast, hard, and well-coordinated offensive into the two Waziristans, it can finish the job of fracturing an already off-balance and faction ridden Taliban. That may be a big "if" but it is not an impossible one.
It has been reported that the civilian population of Peshawar and, presumably elsewhere in the FATA, has greeted the death of Mehsud with a mix of relief and joy. This implies that the army of Pakistan can shuck its aversion to casualties and actually operate on the ground rather than simply from the air and with the bravery of being out of range. The public will accept losses--if victory over Taliban is the result.
Taking advantage of organisational disruption and rivalries for succession gives the Pakistani Army the chance to gain the initiative for once and for all. In counterinsurgency as in conventional war, initiative is everything. It allows the battle to be taken to the enemy. It assures that the enemy is not only taken off balance but is kept that way. It means the enemy cannot mount either a coordinated, effective defense or break contact in an organised manner.
In short, the battle is now that for the Pakistani Army to win--or lose. It is a matter of courage and dedication on the part of the Army's command echelon. Further, it is a matter of whether or not the senior and mid-level officers are on the side of a (comparatively) secular and democratic government or closet supporters of the Islamist jihadists of Taliban.
Even counter-terrorism "expert" and professional pessimist Walid Phares grants that the killing of Mehsud may give the Pakistanis the chance they need to win. He is of the view that the window of opportunity for this is limited. This is one of the few times that the Geek and Dr Phares are in tandem on something.
The Pakistanis have less than a month, perhaps as little as ten to fourteen days, to exploit the confusion which has emerged in the dust of the Hellfire's explosion. Should the Army sit on its hands using only aircraft and artillery rather than regular ground combat forces, the Taliban has a good to excellent chance of recovering its poise and combat efficiency.
If, however, the Army finds the courage and will to shift more of its regular forces from the Indian border to the Waziristans and start shooting Taliban up close and personal, then there is a better than good chance that the days of Taliban are numbered. And, the number will not be a big one.
Coupled with the continued pressure being exerted by US and allied forces across the border in Helmand province, both the Afghan and Pakistani Taliban as well as the shattered remnants of al-Qaeda will be under nearly irresistible pressure. This implies that the military portion of the effort in Afghanistan may soon reach the minimum necessary strategic goal of "not losing."
Long term that is the very best that can be hoped for in Afghanistan. The corrupt and inefficient Karzai government is such that no long term stability can be achieved. Regardless of the outcome of the upcoming elections in Afghanistan, the country will revert over time to what it always has been--a geographical expression in which assorted rival tribal groups co-exist in some degree of cold peace.
The goal of the US and its allies in Afghanistan is and always has been the destruction of al-Qaeda and Taliban. More than that has been either wishful thinking, self-delusion, or flat out tergiversation.
The situations in Pakistan and Afghanistan are and always have been connected at the hip, shoulder and head. The elimination of Mehsud is important but not decisive in either of these interconnected wars. If--and only if--the Pakistani Army can take full, effective advantage of the new situation on the ground in the FATA can it be said honestly that we and our allies have reached, not the beginning of the end, but the end of the beginning.
The best advice which can be given the government and senior military leadership of Pakistan is that of the French national anthem: Form your battalions and march! March!
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