Ready for it?
Here it is. Al-Qaeda. That's right. The reason is al-Qaeda. Or, more broadly, "terrorism."
The irony comes from the simple historical fact that it was President William Jefferson Clinton who ordered US forces out of Somalia in the aftermath of the poorly planned and worse executed operation which resulted in two Blackhawk helicopters down and eighteen Americans killed. It is true that the televised scenes of a dead American being dragged through the dust of Mogadishu while the Somalis cheered and hooted were both disturbing and redolent of savagery, but that was a very poor reason to cut and run.
Worse, the cut and run in the wake of such limited losses did nothing but embolden Osama bin Laden and others committed to the Islamist jihadist True Belief. The message sent to bin Laden and others by President Clinton was simple: Kill a few Americans and we beat feet with world record alacrity.
The irony is made all the more compelling by other actions of President Clinton. The responses by his administration (of which Ms Clinton was a member in all save title) to the truck bombing at Khobar Tower in Saudi Arabia, the embassy bombings in Kenya and Tanzania, and the attack on the USS Cole did nothing but encourage bin Laden and other Islamist jihadists.
The inappropriately mild reactions to these attacks convinced Islamists generally and bin Laden in particular that the US could not even aspire to the level of "paper tiger." The lack of a resolute American counter to the outrages perpetrated by al-Qaeda also convinced the Taliban dictator of Afghanistan, Omar, that there were no risks involved by continuing to harbor al-Qaeda following 9/11.
To put the matter short, brutal, and accurately, there would be no al-Qaeda, no terrorist threat, had it not been for the spineless, risk averse, overly lawyered Clinton administration responses to the provocations of the Islamist jihadists of the Nineties. When al-Qaeda could have been squashed like a grape, President Clinton and his administration lacked either or both the wit and testicular fortitude necessary to lift a foot and do the job.
It is quite true that the Bush/Cheney administration made a very bad situation much, much worse with their blunders. Both the Great Adventure in Regime Change in Iraq and the use of the Ethiopian proxy to rid Somalia of the Islamic Courts Union made life worse for much of the world--including Somalia. Having written that, it is still necessary to underscore that the primary responsibility for creating both the ongoing sanguinary effusion known as Somalia as well as the continuing threat of Islamist jihadist actions rests with President Clinton and those of his inner circle--including Ms Clinton.
Her commitment to the TFG is every bit as insufficient as were her husband's actions fifteen and more years ago. Providing some training and forty tons of weapons and ammunition are no more likely to stop the success of al-Shabaab then sending a few Tomahawks to Sudan and Afghanistan stopped al-Qaeda. If Ms Clinton and President Obama are actually serious about preventing Somalia from becoming a safe haven for Islamist jihadists including fugitives from both Afghanistan and Pakistan, they will have to promise far, far more than a little bit of guns and bullets.
If the region called Somalia is to be denied to the Islamist jihadists, it will take a very real and very bloody effort on the part of the US and other potential target countries. The imposition of even a semblance of stability on Somalia will require more than the African Union is willing and able to provide. It will demand far more than stand-off training and equipment. The task involves taking on and defeating a very well motivated force of irregulars.
The brutal ground truth is that the denial of Somalia to the Islamist jihadists necessitates one more war. That's right, it means fighting another war which the American public does not seek and will not support absent an attack upon the homeland.
Ms Clinton should have made no promises at all, if she is unable to acknowledge that the employment of American combat forces may--no--will be necessary if the Islamist jihadists are to be stopped. Since the SecState explicitly ruled out that possibility she should have made no "vow." At least that would have been honest. It would have raised no false hopes either within Somalia or other countries, such as Kenya, which are in harm's way as a result of al-Shabaab's success to date.
If Ms Clinton wants to make amends to the American people for the abject failure of the Clinton administration fifteen plus years ago, she should truck on back to Washington and have a heart-to-heart talk with President Obama. In a very real sense she has the ethical responsibility to urge Mr Obama not to repeat the disastrous errors of her husband.
She has the ethical responsibility to be honest with the president. To tell him in no uncertain terms that the only way to assure that Somalia will not become the next Afghanistan, the next safe house for Islamist jihadists, is to send US combat forces there.
Of course this is something she will not do. She, like the president, is too committed to the progressive cause, the Transformational Agenda, to be honest about Somalia, Islamist jihadist, or the shape of things to come.
Being a progressive True Believer Ms Clinton would rather shuck, jive, and lie to the people. Lie to the people of the TFG. Lie to the people of the region. Lie to the American people. Lie--and hope that the worst realistic case will not come to pass until she is out of office and her self-congratulatory memoirs safely in press.
And, that's a fact, Jack.
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