As the necessary first step toward gaining influence with the Mandarins of the Forbidden City, the Mullahs of Tehran had their government go on record (again) as supporting China's policy of scarfing up the "lost province" of Taiwan. So much for the "quid." Now for the "pro quo."
Tehran has called on the Chinese government to "respect" the Muslim minority. The Iranian Deputy ForMin, Hossein Sheik al-Islam, delivered the twin message to the Chinese Special Envoy to Iran. The Deputy ForMin underscored just how deeply "concerned" senior members of the Iranian clerical establishment were over the treatment of Muslims in China's restive west.
The Chinese envoy responded, if Iranian accounts are to be believed, with some of the usual diplomatic boilerplate about the "contributions" of the Uighurs to China and, blah-blah. The Chinese diplomat was kind enough not to take the customary posture of rejecting the Iranian demarche as interference in the internal affairs of China.
Wu Sike, the special envoy, was in Tehran after having stopped at several Arab States: Algeria, Qatar and Syria. Overall, the envoy's tasks were multiple as he alluded in his Tehran remarks. They included arms sales, oil purchasing, and building China's reputation as a "partner" in various regional interests. In short, China is flexing its ever developing economic, military, and diplomatic muscles in a critical region the US has long considered its particular bailiwick.
It was nice that the Iranians could take time off from their Imitation of Stalin trial of the dissidents. As the Stalin record shows, pulling off these show trials is a labor and time intensive endeavor--particularly making sure that the right defendant makes the right confession at the right time. And, sticks with it!
It's a good thing the mullahs have barred foreign media from the Great Election Dissident Trial as it does seem to show the frayed edges of haste and poor planning. Worst of all, two prime "dissidents," Moussavi and Khatami, are standing out in the lobby making dramatic accusations of, among other things, the use of torture by the mullahs to achieve the desired confessions. Really, that just won't do. As old Joe himself would have told his imitators, it is critical that there are no negative voices to be heard.
Instead of having stopped the voices before they could get on the global information highway, the mullahs have tried, without success, to drown them with accusations of treason. That is a really pathetic ploy. It is unlikely to play in the Iranian equivalent of Peoria. After all, both Moussavi and Khatami are fixtures of the revolution and senior figures in past Iranian governments. They both may be guilty of many things including a bad sense of timing, but treason to either the nation or the Islamist Revolution is not on the list.
Wu Sike, who, after all, represents a government with some experience in the production of show trials of dissidents, was probably not impressed with the Iranian ineptitude in this crucial area of crypto-totalitarian government practice. Nor would he have been favorably struck by the ongoing signs of fault lines in both the secular and clerical elites. The question of just who is in charge must never arise in a well run total regime.
Wu and his mandarin masters will shrug off the Iranian inefficiency and poorly staged trial as long as the oil flows, China is a favored foreign investor in the oilfields, and Tehran finally prefers Chinese to Russian. Wu has been around a score of years and knows how power is gained and retained in both domestic and foreign contexts.
It is for this reason that Beijing will be unimpressed with Iran's support of Chinese "national unity." It is for this reason that the mullahs of Tehran and Qom are no more likely to be the special protectors of the Muslims in China than they are to be the guardians of Emperor penguins in Antarctica.
The show trial shows something the mullahs and their ilk never suspected would be the case. The strains, contradictions and deep, long-lived rivalries within the elites are showing. And, they are showing to a degree unseen since the years 1997-1999.
Back then the reformers won a stunning victory. They were then quite undone by their own timidity and hesitancy. Torn apart by a lack of unifying vision and, more, a deficiency of instinct for the jugular. When the last gasps of the reformers were drowned in student blood with a ruthlessness of which Beijing no doubt approved but a visibility of which they no doubt disapproved, reform disappeared for a decade.
This time the reactionaries of Khemenei and company took no chances. They rigged the election. Squashed protests. And are now staging a show trial complete with high profile confessions.
Perhaps it is ironic. Perhaps not. But, the reactionaries are running the very real risk of undoing their own cause. Not because they are timid, hesitant. No. Because they have been too robust, too obvious, too heavy, and ham handed.
Special Envoy Wu is probably flying home shaking his head at the Iranian's lack of subtlety, lack of nuance. They do not know something the Chinese government now knows very well. There is a time and place for the sledgehammer. There is a time and place for a tack hammer. The art of effective government is to know the difference. The mullahs just don't get it.
The question for this day is this: Does the Obama administration have a grip on what is happening not only on but below the surface in Iran? This suggests a second question: Does the Obama administration understand that there is a time and place in international politics for the sledgehammer as well as the rubber hammer?
This in turn suggests a third question: Does the Obama administration know the difference and if so, does it care?
Right now the answers do not look good.
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