The Deeply Divided Mind Of Pakistan

If Pakistan or the collective Pakistani people were a single individual there is a better than good chance it would meet the criteria for schizophrenia outlined in the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual. There has never been any real doubt that the Pakistani government was badly split over the nature of the threat or threats confronting it and the country. The Pakistani people are just as badly and deeply conflicted over who should do what regarding "extremists."

In one area alone is the collective mind of Pakistan in full unity. That area is religion. Specifically, Islam of an austere and demanding nature.

The government of Pakistan most recently demonstrated its capacity at double think (the capability to entertain two, antipodal ideas at the same time with the same fervor) in the matter of the US UAV hit on Baitullah Mehsud. The Pakistani Interior Minister, Rehman Malik, is apparently quite pleased that the "drone" whacked the Taliban heavy. At the same time he demanded an end to the UAV operations.

It is not that the minister has anything against the Predators and Reapers in principle. No, not at all. Actually, he is rather in favor of them. So much so that he (along with the rest of the current government) demands the US furnish some to Pakistan so that the Pakistanis can decide against whom and at what time the machines will be used.

The target could be Taliban. It might be al-Qaeda. Or, it could be in India.

Considering the long standing focus on India as the main enemy, there is no reason to believe that the government has suddenly experienced an epiphany resulting in Taliban outranking the feared and hated power to Pakistan's south. This fundamental orientation is good and sufficient reason for the US not to pass along UAVs to Islamabad--even if we had some to spare, which we don't.

Malik maintains that the UAV attacks kill too many civilians. In this the Interior Minister is accurately reflecting the view of the majority of Pakistanis. The average Pakistani in the mosque is highly negative about both the UAVs and the US. Anti-Americanism has grown in recent years and months to the point that a poll taker hanging around after the Friday sermon would have no difficulty determining that most Pakistanis see the US as the new main enemy. India drops to a distant second place.

While the death-from-on-high delivered by remote control may be a high profile symptom, it is but a symptom of the underlying splits in the minds of Pakistanis. So also is the anti-Americanism which is far more apparent than real. Far more a sign of the divisions within than a stand alone phenomenon which should alarm policy makers (or their critics.)

The Pew Global Attitudes Project gives some important tools which aid in both parsing the nature and extent of Pakistani schizophrenia and understanding its relationship to the anti-American sentiments. The same report provides important insights into just how Pakistanis view Islam and what constitutes "extremism."

One very important factor in contemporary Pakistani public opinion is the growth in negative perceptions of both Taliban and al-Qaeda over the past year. Currently seventy percent of Pakistanis have an unfavorable view of Taliban, which is more than double the percentage a year ago. The unfavorable view of al-Qaeda has nearly doubled from thirty-four to sixty-one percent. At the same time the favorable views of these groups has dropped significantly with only ten percent or less entertaining the positive outlook.

During the same period the percentage of Pakistanis concerned over "extremism" in the country has inched from seventy-two to seventy-nine percent. When the views on aspects of Islam or, more accurately, Islamist, doctrine and practices are taken in to account, one may wonder just how Pakistanis understand the word, "extremism."

The Pew pulse-takers found that more Pakistanis view India as a "very serious" threat than either al-Qaeda or Taliban. India leads the threat parade in the minds of sixty-nine percent with Taliban coming in with fifty-seven and al-Qaeda trailing at forty-one percent. At the same time some sixty-four percent of Pakistanis perceive the US as an "enemy" while only nine percent view the US as a "partner."

Going a bit deeper in the numbers, the anti-US feelings are nuanced. Over half of all Pakistanis want improved relations with the US. They perceive the best, fastest road to improved relations is for the US to pump humanitarian and economic development money into the country. Just shy of nine in ten Pakistanis want to see Yankee greenbacks flood the areas now contested with the Taliban and al-Qaeda. The men at the mosque also are in favor of the US providing intelligence assistance to their government and armed forces.

Just don't kill anybody while you're at it. Money good. Intel OK. Doing something lethal is seen as very, very bad.

The downturn in favorable views of Taliban and al-Qaeda has been driven by the boisterous way in which the jihadists have been killing and maiming Pakistani civilians. It has also been driven in lesser part by the dim perception that the US strikes have been in response to the jihadist actions.

Factoring in the overwhelmingly positive feelings Pakistanis demonstrate regarding their Army, a rough calculus can be developed. Muslim troops kill jihadists--very, very good. Jihadists kill troops--very bad. Jihadists kill Pakistani civilians--very, very bad. Infidel American machines kill miscreant jihadists--very, very, very, very bad. Infidel Americans give Muslim Pakistanis money--very, very, very, very good.

Now the problem of defining "extremism." By most standards the monolithic views of Pakistanis on Islamic matters would be "extreme." Overwhelming majorities approve of applying the death penalty to any individual who "leaves" Islam for another religion, lopping off hands and feet or whipping for crimes such as theft, and stoning adulterers to death. These attitudes are indistinguishable from the practices and beliefs of both Taliban and al-Qaeda.

Only in the area of education for girls and women does the Pakistani perspective differ from that espoused by the Islamist jihadists. More than eighty percent of Pakistanis see education being equally important for both sexes.

A final, very important datum located by the Pew survey folks. Pakistanis are intensely nationalistic. The national identity trumps the ethnic or linguistic for nine out of ten. This goes a very long way in explaining why Pakistanis so strongly disapprove of the UAV attacks. They are seen a violation of national sovereignty.

The nationalistic orientation of both people and government is not only a cause of the apparent schizophrenia, it also suggests a way out for the US. The way out includes providing humanitarian and economic development aid as has already been proposed and partially put into action. It also requires a much stronger, far more public effort to persuade the Pakistani public that the UAV strikes are taken with the full cooperation, approval, and support of the Pakistani government.

So far the government of Pakistan may well know that most if not all strikes are undertaken with the knowledge and approval of Islamabad. But, the public does not know. It must be brought into the loop. Both the US and Pakistani governments must get on the stick and let the people of the country know that their national sovereignty is not being infringed or shown disrespect by the infidels and their machines.

The Interior Minister and all the others at the upper levels of both the government and the Army (which is the most trusted institution in Pakistan) must let their people know in no uncertain terms that the UAV strikes are both approved of and highly important in stopping "extremism." Maybe it is past time to go to the videotapes and show the Pakistani in the mosque just what is being done, how it is being done--and just who is being killed down range.

Sometimes dropping the veil of unnecessary secrecy is critical to achieving a necessary success. In this case the success will come when the Pakistanis both in and out of government can overcome the bad case of schizophrenia which is impairing our common effort against the black turbans of Islamist jihadism.