A (Very) Faint Glimmer Of Hope In Somalia

For reasons best left to a psychologist, the Geek has always harbored a degree of fondness for the Somalis. Perhaps it is because they formerly fought out politics with poetry contests. Perhaps it is because they formerly were a rather laid-back people in a country with a strange, eerie, and quite hauntingly lonely beauty.

In any event he has watched the descent into bloody Islamist jihadist chaos in recent years with a mixture of pity and loathing. The Union of Islamic Courts had little to recommend it as a government other than the fact it was better than the years of warlord driven fighting which preceded it. The US sponsored overthrow of the UIC by Ethiopia had nothing to recommend it. It was yet one more very bad notion of the Bush/Cheney administration which defies rational analysis.

If the intent actually was, as represented by the neocon ninnies of the time, the denial of Somalia as a safe haven for Islamist jihadists, it was a counterproductive failure. The Ethiopian Army did dispatch the UIC. Beyond that they simply opened the door wide for the far more objectionable Al-Shabab. This crew of Islamist jihadist thugs assured only that the situation in Somalia went from the Fifth Circle of Hell to the First.

Other than the highly unlikely use of Western (that means US) troops, the only hope for stability ever emerging in the unfortunate artifact called Somalia was that of al-Shabab alienating the locals by its own constant movement to the more extreme. When that happened, and given the experience of Islamist jihadists in both Iraq and the Pakistani FATA, it was more a matter of when than if, and if there existed in Somalia a simulacrum of government, there would be a chance of bringing peace back to the vast, silent land.

Sheik Ahmed Sheik Sharif was more or less elected by the Transitional Federal Government in concert with assorted foreign powers. The Sheik has much in his favor. He is quite popular in the south of Somalia which is also the area most heavily dominated by al-Shabab. And, he was a heavy, perhaps the heavy in the old UIC.

Ahmed Sharif has moved to exploit divisions not only within al-Shabab but between that group and the rival Hizbul Islam. He has also sought with some slight degree of success to gain the support of tribal leaders aligned with neither jihadist entity.

The excesses of al-Shabab seem to have reached a tipping point with its recent campaign to extract gold and silver teeth from the mouths of any Somali so "Western" as to sport such appliances. Not unlike the anti-smoking effort involving chopping off fingers waged by the Islamist jihadists of Anwar province, this "purification in the name of Islam" monstrosity proved to be over the edge in the eyes of the locals.

Apparently far more Somalis see themselves as possible victims of al-Shabab's novel approach to dental surgery than envisioned themselves liable to lose hands and feet to the machetes of al-Shabab's Shariah enforcers. The tooth pulling brigade constituted one fear too many.

In the eyes of many Somalis who cannot for one reason or another flee the place for the dubious comfort and not much more certain safety of refugee camps in Kenya, al-Shabab had overstayed its welcome. Beyond that, there was no reason to support al-Shabab anymore. The Ethiopians were gone. And, rather than providing peace, stability, and justice, the "Youth" were responsible for violence, chaos, and arbitrary, unpredictable violence.

At the same time the Transitional Federal Government is hanging on. Perhaps even more than merely hanging on given the increase in the number of voluntary recruits for the new security forces receiving both arms and training in Djibouti. The minuscule African Union peace keeping force of four thousand under-armed and under-equipped men have shown a new and welcome willingness to do more than simply defend a few blocks around the government headquarters and port.

With the prospect of victory receding and popular support melting faster than an ice cube at high noon in Mogadishu, divisions within al-Shabab are showing themselves. These are not surprising as al-Shabab has never had a tight organisational structure nor a chain of command with both legitimacy and coherence. And, beyond the imposition of its own version of Shariah, al-Shabab has not had much of a long range political goal.

It is these features which give some hope for Ahmed Sharif being able to snatch a reasonable approximation of victory from the wide open jaws of defeat. It is also what may make al-Shabab even more dangerous than it currently is.

The lack of a unifying vision makes al-Shabab open to the expansive notions which power al-Qaeda and similar Islamist jihadist organizations. Foreigners have been arriving in Somalia every day as venues such as Afghanistan, Iraq, and the FATA become too dangerous. From the perspective of any Islamist jihadist capable of strategic thought, Somalia, in conjunction with Yemen, is a very desirable target.

Yemen is under increasing threat from the Islamist jihadists as the spreading insurgency in the north of that country demonstrates. Should both Somalia and Yemen fall under complete or majority Islamist jihadist sway, the southern approaches to the Suez Canal would be in the jaws of a very hostile vise.

The government of Yemen is not much to write home about, but it is far, far more of a reality than is the TFG of Somalia. From the operational perspective, the more attractive area, the more vulnerable one, is Somalia.

Assuming that there are Islamist strategists as opposed to mere mouthers of slogans, the race is on. The race is between the ability of Ahmed Sharif to exploit divisions in the local jihadist ranks and the ability of foreign origin Islamists to take over and give both coherence and direction to the al-Shabab gunsels.

The course of the race will become more evident in the next month or two. The probable outcome will be apparent before the end of the year. While the Geek really does hope that Ahmed Sharif will pull it off for the sake of a good and decent people who deserve far better than they have been experiencing, the race is very much in doubt.

It will take more, much more than forty tons of US furnished arms and ammunition to tilt the race in the better direction. It is to be hoped the Obama administration realizes this before the finish line is reached.