China Steps Up To The Plate--In Pakistan

China has long enjoyed an all-weather relationship with Pakistan. In the past the Chinese have been more than generous with aid of all sorts. Pakistan has received economic development assistance, military equipment, and, last, but far from least, nuclear technology, equipment, and materials.

The increasingly close relation between the US and India as epitomized in the recently concluded deal on civilian nuclear facilities after decades of more or less acrimonious estrangement may well be the reason China is showing a renewed interest in Pakistan. There is a single dominant national interest shared by Pakistan and China.

That's right, bucko, India. Each sees the other as a reinsurance policy against India.

Why the insurance is necessary, particularly by China, is difficult to fathom. It is true that Pakistan serves China as a sort of very low cost deterrent against any Indian ambitions, but that fails to answer the key question: What ambitions on the part of India are evident enough to make Beijing seek even very low cost deterrence over and above the scope and competence of their own armed forces?

There is no, or at least very, very little probability of China and India having another passage at arms such as the skirmish (which India lost) high in the Himalayas back in 1962. Forty-seven years of staring across the icy trenches in the thin air without another go-around indicates that the frontier is and will remain stable.

The most likely motivation for China's generosity toward Pakistan is found in the search for regional hegemony. In looking at Southeast Asia from Thailand to Malaysia, China sees only one theoretical rival for regional power status--India. Insofar as India remains focused on Pakistan and the potential threats emerging from that country, China can pursue its regional goals without any anxiety of Indian counters.

Playing to Pakistan's fears concerning India is one of the easiest diplomatic games to play. The Pakistanis are ready, eager really, to accept any conspiracy notion--as long as the villain lives in New Delhi. Currently Islamabad is convinced that India is conspiring with the US to establish its odious presence in Afghanistan to Pakistan's manifest disadvantage. Beyond this, the government of Pakistan as well as assorted opinion makers are firmly of the view that the sinister hand of India is behind the separatist movement in Baluchistan (perhaps with the consent or even approval and assistance of the US.)

India is after influence in Afghanistan. That much is true. That any increase in Indian influence may serve to hinder Pakistan's similar ambition in the country is not arguable. It is rather a zero sum game. There is little doubt that India would not weep should Baluchistan gain either a measure of autonomy or even independence.

It is beyond the realm of reality that the US is involved in any Indian effort in Afghanistan beyond that of wishing it would be more effective and less high profile. Even further in the land of paranoiac fantasy is the notion that Washington would like to see the energetic disassembly of Pakistan.

Reality is of less concern to the government of Pakistan and the Pakistanis generally than is the perception of the US as being hostile to it. The same is true-on steroids--regarding India. The recent launching of the Indian nuclear submarine has put Islamabad in a rhetorical tizzy. There is little doubt but Pakistan feels an obligation to at least match this accomplishment.

As Russia helped India build its missile capable boat, so might the Chinese assist Pakistan. Also, the Chinese might well be far more willing than is the US currently to supply high ticket systems suitable for use against India. The Chinese have an unsurpassed record in furnishing weapons without any stultifying restrictions about their employment.

The US having been burned no end during the days of the open wallet approach to military aid favored by the Bush/Cheney administration now supplies only those goodies suitable for low-intensity counterinsurgency operations. This approach is reflected in the US unwillingness to give UAVs to Pakistan as these could be shifted quickly from the FATA to the Indian border.

The Chinese are not at all likely to be so picky.

India is not without its degree of paranoia. The Indian government has protested even the most recent US commitment to sell (give) counterinsurgency oriented weapons to Pakistan alleging these will end up pointed at Indians. But, the Indians are utterly rational in comparison to the Pakistanis.

The result is China will furnish more weapon systems to Pakistan. Given its enormous cash reserves, China is also perfectly situated to bolster Pakistan's weakening currency and provide other economic assistance. In return, Pakistan may well invite China to explore and develop the sub-surface resources in Baluchistan. These may be considerable.

China would also be able to count on Pakistan's assistance in gaining increasing influence among the Muslim states generally. Considering the robust diplomatic effort of China to project itself into areas of Africa and the Mideast in which Islam predominates, this would be of some advantage. Pakistan's bought and paid for good will would also be of assistance in offsetting the inevitable negative reaction within the Islamic world if it has to really crack down on the Uighurs.

Put together, the possibilities offered by a deepening relation with Pakistan provides China with a diplomatic make-weight which would more than counter any Indian efforts to forestall a Chinese regional hegemony over Southeast Asia. It is the kind of low-risk, low-cost but high-payoff approach which the Chinese prefer.

And, best of all, given the current dynamics in the Indian Sub-continent and Northwest Asia generally, it is a move which the US cannot block, cannot even attenuate. Well, it's just another one of those foreign policy challenges that the Nice Young Man From Chicago must wish would go away. But it won't.