There were dissenters. These were lead by Israel. As usual the Israeli views were tossed off by many as the result of the nation's paranoia and an over reliance on force. So, let's give peace a chance.
There was another option for assessing the halt in the warhead development efforts to which the American NIE made reference. It was the road not taken, perhaps because CIA and other components of the intell community had been burned so badly by the WMD contretemps after the invasion of Iraq. It is also a much less pleasant option to contemplate.
The Iranians had stopped warhead, or, more accurately, physics package design because they had mastered both the design and the technology needed to make the design work. This was a viable base of assessment given the assistance the Iranians had received from A.Q Khan and company in Pakistan. To which may be added the possibility of assistance from China.
The second option, the option holding that the Iranians had done all that they could until amassing sufficient weapons grade uranium has come roaring back to life courtesy of the Times of London. The report, which is standard in today's journalistic practice, is meager in original source documentation, holds that Iran could have a deliverable implosion type uranium weapon within a year of Ayatollah Khamenei giving the go-ahead.
The Israelis have publicly added that Iran now has sufficient low enrichment uranium on hand to produce thirty kilograms of weapons grade final product. This is (more than) enough to make one bomb of Hiroshima level yield--particularly if the Iranians have developed a viable implosion detonation system.
It also deserves mention that the Iranians have an immediate fall back position if the implosion method does not work as advertised. Sixty pounds of highly enriched uranium is sufficient to make a very effective albeit less efficient gun-type bomb. This is what the US employed to level Hiroshima. The technology is so simple that no tests were--or are-necessary.
Golly, this just makes the Geek feel all warm, cuddly, and safe. Bet it does you too, Bucko.
Then there is the word from the antipodes (literally.) The Australians have outed the Burmese covert reactor and plutonium separation plant being built in caves not far from their open and, according to its Russian builders, Non-Proliferation Treaty compliant research reactor. The underground plant is being constructed by and with the North Koreans.
The source of the story is Australia's National University strategic expert, Desmond Ball. Professor Ball, whom the Geek has met professionally more than a few times, is a careful and highly methodical investigator. He has extensively interviewed two defectors from Burma with direct, hands-on knowledge of the covert bomb oriented work in progress. At least one of the two defectors has been debriefed by US intelligence.
This is directly confirmed by the Burmese government's touchy reaction to US unmanned aircraft overflying the North Koreans and Burmese army are beavering away. The junta running the show in Burma (OK, for the politically correct, Myanmar) are both notoriously repressive and possessed of a penchant for the sneaky side of life. This makes them ideally suited for a collaborative effort with North Korea.
Not commented upon is China. China is the T. rex at the dinner table in this matter as it is in so many. The relations between North Korea and China are too well known to deserve even minimal adumbration.
However, it deserves mention that China is both a major trading partner with Burma and its primary diplomatic protection service. Without China's complete cooperation there is no practical way of stopping the flow of men and material between North Korea and Burma. Bets. anyone?
The Ball report is preliminary, very preliminary. As the professor candidly states, it is in need of verification. Even more importantly, it is necessary to determine how far advanced the construction work is.
If one is not overly concerned with safety or the potential of worker casualties, building both a nuclear reactor oriented toward plutonium production and an attached chemical separation facility are neither complex nor long duration. It might be recalled that plutonium was being produced at the Hanford works less than eighteen months after the ground was broken for the plant during World War II.
Moving in the direction of gaining an atomic weapons capacity moves Burma from being a mere pariah state to that of a rogue. The junta has long entertained visions of regional hegemony or at least domination of Thailand and the Indo-Chinese states. A nuclear capacity, even one which is not acknowledged (the Israel option), would serve this ambition very nicely, thank you.
It appears that the nuclear-free world so delightfully outlined by President Obama not that many weeks ago is being challenged by the cold and brutal realities of a world which is and will continue to be dominated by the nation-state, no matter how much the chattering classes of the Western European and American elites decry and deny that fact. The Obama-Clinton-Biden foreign policy giants have more challenges on their plate.
Central to effectively meeting the threats of nuclear proliferation by Iran and, now, Burma, is the cooperation of Russia and China. Neither country has a dog in the fight, at least not directly. At the same time, China holds our notes and we want to press more into their hands. And, the Russians still believe that the insults hurled by Joe Biden a week back are symbolic of some sort of deep and dark plot under development in the White House and Foggy Bottom.
Now, don't you feel a whole lot more confident about the bright, peaceful, prosperous New World of the Obama Transformational Agenda?
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