The problem is you all are getting all fired up to do the "same old, same old" which has brought such stunning lacks of success as those experienced in Afghanistan, as well as the two Chechen Wars. Come on, men, even the US military has shown it can (eventually) learn from its own mistakes, blunders, and wrong-headed doctrine. What's wrong with you Russians? Trying to equal Israel as the World's Most Inept Counterinsurgent?
The Geek knows enough Russian history to understand that the reflexive reaching for the knout is almost as deeply embedded as a vodka based toast. But, come on, get a grip, fellows!
There is a role for coercion in successful counterinsurgency as any reader of this blog knows. It is critical to remember one very important fact: The role is critical but limited. Coercion is the secondary, not the primary means by which those pesky insurgents can be removed as an ongoing nuisance.
"Toughness" is not the watchword. Sure, Dmitry, calling for "tough" trials for terrorists may sound good on TV and even play well in the Russian equivalent of Peoria, but it isn't the magic word, or even the right one. Anyway, the judicial remedy is, as you darn well know, only a very small part of the solution.
OK, let's walk it through slowly.
You boys have a real problem on your hands in Ingushtia and the rest of the neighborhood. Your little insurgencies there are of a mixed sort. They combine nationalism with Islamist jihadism. And, that makes the insurgents a far more difficult sort of proposition.
The reinforcing nature of nationalism which has been stoked repeatedly by the worst sort of foul treatment from the Kremlin for some two hundred years and Islamist jihadism with its ability to use religious beliefs of a particularly powerful and pervasive form makes the insurgent in Ingushtia, Chechnya, and akin spots very highly motivated, quite willing to kill, and rather immune to the fear of death. The new guy you have appointed to "clarify" and "put to order" the affairs of the insurgent rich North Caucasus ought to know this.
Arkady Yedelev (who looks both brutal and thuggish, if the photo is any guide) ought to be aware of the challenge presented by the nationalistic Islamist jihadist (whew! That's a mouthful!) from his service in Chechnya. This "battle hardened" former KGB and Federal Security Service general was responsible in part for creating a desert in much of Chechnya and calling it peace.
The problem comes in that while Yedelev and others might have declared peace reigned forever more in the North Caucasus, it was rather the case that the war went underground to await a better day in the future. And, the future is now.
To put it simply, unless you lads in the Kremlin are willing to risk the global opprobrium which would result from turning the Yedelevs of your military and security forces loose, you will not be able to kill your way to victory. The truth of the matter is the Russian Army would have to kill entirely too many people in order to create enough of a desert to be peaceful in the aftermath.
And, that sort of mass effusion would not escape both notice and condemnation. You boys have to remember this isn't the good old days of Joe Stalin when it was possible to quietly murder a few tens of thousands without anyone being particularly aware of it.
So, put a stout leash on the neck of General Yedelev and consider a better, lower body count way of achieving the interlocking goals of restoring a semblance of long term stability to the region while not abandoning the reality of effective operational dominance there. It may take a bit longer, be a little more hazy in outcome, but it will spare Russia any embarrassment before the global audience.
First remember the ground truth: The insurgencies in Ingushtia and Chechnya and environs are a mixture of nationalism and Islamist jihadism.
Next, you have to demobilize the nationalists from the Islamist jihadists since it this second category which is the real tough nut. This means the Kremlin will have to settle for effective operational dominance, not total authority or even evident political supremacy. (Hint, effective operational dominance can be assured by economic and infrastructure means.)
A good starting point would be finding the right man to be the Ingushtian chief executive. It boggles belief that the Kremlin cannot find a single qualified native of Ingushtia to run the place. The bad practice of naming some retired former general as jefe grande simply has to end--that is if you want to defeat the insurgency and not simply purchase another "time-out" through bloody repression.
Then, quite openly and with wide publicity turn over all local matters to the locals--and mean it! No bait and switch, do it!
To gain legitimacy for both the Kremlin and the new local regime find some nice, juicy, high profile, notorious grafters, the real princes of corruption. The more well known, the better. Then, have a show trial. That's what show trials are for. Not for insurgents, for them the trial is simply a venue to dominate. For corrupt, overbearing, grafting officials, the show trial is a great way to both throw the red meat of revenge to the locals and up the perceived functional legitimacy of both the Russian central government and the new local regime.
Think hard, Vladimir, you did the same sort of thing not that many years ago when you cut the oligarchs off at the knees. Did you a lot of good, right? It will again, you can trust the Geek, he's a doctor.
After prying the nationalists from the grasp of the Islamist jihadists, you have to deal with them. While the Geek has no objections to such things as saying nice words about Islam qua Islam, this sort of feel good approach will get you precisely nowhere with the Islamist jihadists. These are the hardest of hard core types.
Now it is time for toughness. Islamist jihadists have often and loudly proclaimed that they love death more than you infidels love life. Take them at their word. These specialists in what they call "martyrdom operations" seem to have a need to die.
The Geek believes in meeting human needs. So, his advice is simple: Kill them.
The Islamist jihadist needs killing. There is no other way to end his infection of the larger population. The reason that Yuri Andropov created your super-mucho-beaucoup elite Alpha Unit was to kill hostiles of the sort represented by the Islamist jihadists in the North Caucasus.
Whistle up the Federal Security Service or whoever runs Alpha these days and tell them to get on with the job. The job is locating, isolating, and eliminating the Islamist jihadists starting with the leadership echelon(s). The critical caveat is that Alpha or whatever trigger-pulling bunch is sent in must not kill anyone other than identifiable Islamist jihadists. And, it is critical that all the Islamist jihadists, particularly those in a leadership billet, be killed. Not some. Not most. All. Otherwise, like a lethal pathogen which has been only partially eliminated by an antibiotic, they will be back--bigger and badder than previously.
Along the way make sure the Kremlin pumps in infrastructure, educational, and economic development funds. These must be expended according to the self-perceived needs and priorities of the locals--not some Deep Thinker in some distant ministry. And, the money must be spent, invested really, in an open, transparent, fair and non-corrupt way. Otherwise the rest will have been in vain and the Kremlin's future effective operational dominance will be put in peril.
There you have it, Dmitry and Vladimir, the Geek's history derived and tested recipe for successful counterinsurgency. Of course, there are risks involved. Success resides in the details of application. And, Russia has a lot of historical inertia to overcome if the details are to be executed properly.
The Geek is not optimistic but feels an obligation to give the advice he has. You see, the prospect of still more bloody war without purpose, without a real, achievable goal, lacking a genuine prospect of resulting in a better state of peace makes the Geek want to engage in projectile vomiting. And, that ain't no fun, brother.
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