Hugo Chavez, Gaddifi's Off-Ramp?

You have to take a bit of pity on Hugo (I, too, am history) Chavez.  His good running buddy Muamar Gaddafi has been in an ever growing world of hurt for some days.  Hugo owed him something as did his fellow Socialists-for-the-21st-century strongmen, Daniel Ortega, Ewo Morales, and Rafael Correa.  At the same time ole Hugo has been getting more and more cozy with Iran's orator-in-chief, Ahmedinejad.  The official president of Iran had taken a strong line supporting the assorted "people power" exhibitions across North Africa and the Mideast.  Of course, Hugo had no desire to offend such a gifted statesman as Ahmedinejad.

What's a conflicted dictator going to do?

After cogitating on the dilemma for several days, Hugo evidently had a Great Idea.  He would become the peacemaker of the day!  He would propose--drum roll, please--mediation!  What a concept!  Why just convene an international (carefully selected) panel of fellow statesmen to chart a course of peace.  Everybody (except imperialist powers headed by the ever grasping US) is in favor of peace, right?

Many commentators apparently assumed that the Chavez notion revolved around keeping Gaddafi in power, perhaps with some cosmetic changes in the makeup of his government.  The couple of bricks shy of a wall Brother Leader may have leaped to the same conclusion as indicated by his speedy acceptance of the proposal.  Number one son, Saafi was less enthused perhaps because due to his greater sophistication in the ways of the world he saw the proposition as being a way of getting dear old dad out of Libya and into the service of Venezuela.

In a completely predicable way the insurgent leadership rejected the offer citing the number of people who had died already in the pursuit of Gaddafi's removal.  This made the lukewarm acceptance of the Chavez demarche by Arab League Director General Amr Moussa irrelevant.  Also stacking the odds against any effort at "mediation" by Chavez or anybody else was the rapid rejection offered by the US, the UK, France, and Italy.  Not daunted by the latter, Chavez pooh-poohed it as typical imperialist blather.  In this he was echoed by Fidel Castro.

In all probability Chavez was angling for a way to provide Gaddafi with an off-ramp from his current parlous position.  Certainly there would be some advantages for the Chavez regime should Gaddifi pitch his tent on one of Venezuela's attractive islands.  Despite the moves taken by the US, UK, and other countries to freeze Gaddafi family money, the cunning old dictator probably has a couple of billion bucks stashed outside the writ of the "imperialist" states.  So he would not be a drain on Chavez' resources.

Gaddifi would bring with him a wealth of knowledge about how to mulct oil wealth and turn it to advantage in such activities as acquiring nuclear weapons, purchasing seats of advantageous status in the UN and its ancillary organs, and supporting promising and ambitious thugs in Africa and elsewhere.  Assuming the good Colonel has not lost all his marbles and memories under the stress of discovering many of "his people" would rather die opposing him than continue living under his odious thumb, Gaddifi would represent a major asset for Chavez whose mouth so far has far exceeded his positive accomplishments.

There would be a downside to offering the aging Libyan autocrat a retirement facility in Venezuela.  The Libyan "leader" might be a fave with Chavez, Morales and Ortega, but he is anathema with most folks living in South America.  All too many of those people have had recent experience living under brutally dictatorial regimes and are soundly on the side of the Libyan insurgents.  Brazil, still and despite the efforts of Chavez, the preeminent regional power was quick to sever diplomatic relations with the Gaddifi government.  Peru was at the head of the list of those countries calling for the imposition of a no-fly zone.  Even Ewo Morales has been quite reticent about giving rhetorical support to the embattled regime.

It is likely that most South American governments recognize the danger which would result from Gaddafi taking up residence in Venezuela.  An inevitable consequence would be an increase in isolation for the "Bolivarian Revolution" of Sr Chavez.

The Venezuelan jefe grande would also call down upon his head the wrath of all those who desire fervently to see Gaddafi in the dock facing assorted criminal charges.  Sr Chavez does not seem to realize just how cordially the Gaddifi regime is detested in so much of the world, "imperialist" and otherwise.  The Colonel's heavy thumb has been felt by the people of Liberia and Sierra Leone where dictators supported by the Libyan troublemaker were able to establish their brutal selves.  This would undercut the Chavez charm offensive, which has been directed against several West African states.  One exception would be Burkino Faso where one Compaore, a graduate of Gaddafi's World Revolutionary Center, came to power by directing the assassination of his friend and president Thomas Sankara in 1987.  (The monstrous Compaore sent troops to support Charles Taylor (another WRC alumnus) in Liberia and Foday Sankoh in Sierra Leone.)

Not to put too fine a point on the dagger of reality, any country which provides sanctuary to Gaddafi will be on the feces list of most countries on Earth.  So Sr Chavez is running a greater risk than he might believe.  It rather seems that if Chavez is convinced of an evildoer's good nature, he believes every correct thinking person in the world must agree with him.

Perhaps by now the Hero of the Venezuelan People has come to regret his calculation and the offer based upon it.  If that is the case his best hope is that the offer will fade away from global consciousness.  It won't, at least not in many chanceries around the world.  This is to the good of all those in and outside Venezuela who hope the "Bolivarian Revolution" will come to an end--quickly.  It sure would be nice if the current incumbent of the Oval were to be among this group.