The Libyan "Moment" Has Come--And Gone

Not that many years ago the phrase "cheese eating surrender monkeys" was applied by crotch-grabbing, red blooded, red meat eating, American hyperpatriots to the French.  The French government of the day had refused to go along with the Bush/Cheney Great Adventure in Regime Change in Iraq.  As a result, some of We the People were not only unimpressed, they wanted to rename French fries something more suitable.

Now the term can be applied to the West generally--provided the French and British are specifically exempted.  In diametric opposition to the stance adopted by President Obama and his "foreign policy team," the French have moved quickly to recognize the rebels as the legitimate government of Libya.  In conjunction with David Cameron, President Nicholas Sarkozy called for the immediate imposition of a no-fly zone days ago.

In short, the French are waving the banner of defiance in the face of the American surrender monkeys who evidently prefer to chomp political cheese while Gaddafi moves closer to victory.  In a stunning show of total indifference not only to the upcoming slaughter in Libya but core interests of the US and its allies, Secretary of State Hilary Clinton rejected a no-fly zone after having met with insurgent leaders in Paris.

The secretary waved the White House's white flag with the usual blather about the necessity of the UN Security Council authorizing any such action.  Ms Clinton knows that at least China will veto the idea.  The Russians are inclined in that direction as well but have preferred to use the stall approach demanding operational details before considering any resolution.

Any invocation of the Security Council in the context of the Libyan Question is akin to imploring the Great Ju-Ju with sacrificial maidens in order to avert a total meltdown of the incandescent reactor cores in Japan.  Ms Clinton knows this.  So does President Obama.  Both are simply looking for the safest way out of a very real dilemma.  They want the Libyan Question to answer itself so that Mr Obama will not have to abandon his successful political posture as being anything and everything George W. Bush was not.

The fear of losing his identity as I-Am-Not-George-Bush, the Clueless Guy in the Oval is quite willing to see Libyans die.  Worse, he is willing to place the present and future national and strategic interests of the US in peril--great peril.

There is no doubt but Mr Obama and the rest of his "team" will soon embrace the new narrative being written rapidly by assorted members of the American and European "elites."  The new version of life in Libya has the Colonel "winning" so quickly and convincingly that the imposition of a no-fly zone would be too little and too late to be of value to the insurgents.

There is a good deal of truth to the "new" narrative.  As the Geek has noted in several previous posts, the insurgents' initial buoyant optimism was unwarranted in the extreme.  Their attempt at victory through a rapid escalade were doomed to fail and then time would be on the side of Gaddafi and company.  As has been obvious from the beginning, Brother Leader's forces had better organization, better training, better equipment, and a high degree of motivation which extended from the top down.  In comparison, the insurgents were a disorganized, badly equipped mob with an attitude.

Gaddifi may speak and act like a nut job, but he falls in the old cliche of "crazy like a fox."  He has shown a very real talent for manipulating perceptions in the West as well as playing the divide and conquer game domestically.  As he has a total disregard for the lives and well being of the Libyan people, there has never been any doubt about his willingness and ability to keep power while standing on a mountain of bodies.  In short, he can kill his way to victory--at least a temporary victory.

Even if his continued tenure in office is measured in months, or a couple of years at most, his capacity to do damage, even create havoc should and must not be underestimated.  At present--in largest measure due to the need of President Obama and many other Western leaders such as Ms Merkel for a spine transplant--the Colonel is going to emerge victorious.

Over the longer haul the combination of economic sanctions and diplomatic isolation will fatally weaken the Gaddafi family enterprise.  The weakening will occur faster if the insurgents are able to switch to a guerrilla war operational doctrine.  Assorted Western analysts have concluded this is what the future bodes.

Perhaps.  The Libyans of the western region have a history of effective and prolonged guerrilla war.  The campaign against the Italian occupiers was centered in the region surrounding Benghazi, Cyrenaica.  In the end, of course, the Italians prevailed, largely because they were willing and able to kill their way to victory.  Given the resources available to the Gaddafi regime, there are good reasons to assert the government today can do the same only much faster.

This is not to say the insurgents cannot successfully attack the overextended government forces and their very long and highly vulnerable land line of communication.  They can mount attacks.  They can inflict damage and casualties on the Gaddafi loyalists.  They can prevent the Colonel's killers from enjoying unquestioned success, of sleeping soundly after the victory party.  Still, the probability of toppling the Gaddafi regime by means of guerrilla war is slim.

No matter how the cake is cut, the result is the same.  Without foreign assistance, the insurgents will lose.  This means Gaddafi will be back--bigger and badder than ever.  He may not last that many months, but he can make those months pure hell for Libyans--and others as well.

This implies with strength and vigor that some country among the civilized states must take the lead.  It is no use invoking the magic of the United Nations.  The UN Security Council due to the domestic policy considerations so critical to both China and Russia will remain the "god that failed."  NATO is also a non-starter given the position adopted by the Merkel government and supported in principle by other countries as well.  The same applies to the European Union.

Nor can the Libyans and the world look to the US.  President Obama is a genuine "cheese eating surrender monkey" quite willing to sacrifice the national interests of the US on the alter of personal ambition and before the totem of fearing to be seen as one more George W. Bush.

And so the world spins.  Downward--at least from the perspective of the US and other civilized states.