Syrian Immune System Challenged--Or Compromised?

Not that many days ago the Syrian jefe grande y supremo, Bashir al-Assad, decreed that Syria was "immune" to the political unrest spreading contagion like across North Africa and the Mideast.  Most observers around the world quickly agreed, nodding heads solemnly as they commented on how Bashir's anti-Israel and pro-Iran stance enjoyed widespread support among the common folk of the country.

That crowd sourced opinion may be correct.  It is also irrelevant.  Few people on the Syrian street place foreign policy on the head of the list of things liked or otherwise about the Syrian status quo.  There are far more pressing issues confronting most people in Damascus or the parched former farmlands of the country's northeast.

At first, events--most notably the failure of the expat called and organized first day of "rage"-- seemed to confirm both Bashir's self-assessment and the views of the experts.  Even later protests in Damascus were far more fizzle than the fanfare of revolution.

But the situation changed in a town far from Damascus, Daraa.  While protests occurred yesterday in five cities including Damascus, Daraa was the spot where the game possibly changed.  For reasons not yet clear, the security forces opened fire with lethal results for five civilians.  The powers that be reacted quickly and, from initial reports, properly.  Investigations and prosecutions were promised.  Even if the guilty proved to be security officials, prosecution was guaranteed, "regardless of rank."

The situation in Daraa was not defused by the governmental actions.  Today, at the funerals for two of the men killed, the security forces used tear gas to disperse demonstrators.  As is the case quite often with funerals, the one held today served as a platform for launching political protests.  More than a few of the ten thousand close personal friends of the deceased took to the streets with a vengeance.  In the customary point-counterpoint style of Mideast politics, the security forces pushed back with gas and mass arrests.

The new opposition group which has given itself the moniker of "The March 15 Revolution," has made the now obbligato move of establishing a Facebook page.  Not surprisingly, it has blamed the regime for the deaths.  Assorted human rights groups including the now ever present Human Rights Watch has backed the claims of the March 15 Revolution.  The outside world responded in a way completely compatible with the protocol which has been established in the wake of the "Jasmine Revolution" and its follow-ons.  The US and UN both jawboned away.  Ban Ki-Moon called the lethal suppression "unacceptable."  The White House condemned the use of force "strongly."

The government has sealed Daraa so confirmation of the events, body count, and number arrested is difficult or impossible.  The government undoubtedly sees the move as necessary not only to prevent outsiders viewing Syrian dirty laundry but also as a means of quarantining the fatal virus of political challenge and change.

The events in Daraa are noteworthy if for no other reason as having been the most deadly outbreak of political violence since the Kurds got uppity in 2004.  Back then security forces killed at least twenty-five in the northeastern city of Qwamishli and left another one hundred plus wounded.  Politics, particularly those of a dissenting sort, constitute a full contact sport in Syria.

Any protests of any sort do rattle the regime's cage.  It should be recalled that Syria has been under a "State of Emergency" since the Baath Party took control in 1963.  That is one whacking big emergency--fifty-seven years and counting.

Even the typically youthful (median age of population is 21.7 years according to the CIA World Factbook) Syrians remember the bloodletting in the city of Hama.  At that place Bashir's father, Hafiz, suppressed an uprising orchestrated by the Muslim Brotherhood at a cost in lives which makes Gaddfi's efforts of late look like a festival of peace, love, and flower power.  The city was virtually destroyed by heavy artillery, air attacks, and tanks.  As many as one hundred thousand were buried in the rubble.

Syria's current problems must be set against the inhibitory effects of the Hama legacy.  Syria has been hit hard by the global recession of recent years.  Unemployment and its equally sickening twin underemployment are rampant--particularly among the critical segment, educated youth.  The governmental deficit is very large and not likely to do other than grow in the next few years.  A harsh and prolonged drought has worsened the already critical water shortage such as to severely cripple agriculture and turn large numbers of previously decently well off farmers into proprietors of dust bowls.

The combination of rapidly declining water supplies, shrinking oil production, a rapidly growing population, and a public economy skewed toward military procurement has place enormous pressure on the government to meet public demands.  It has already terminally derailed Bashir's ambitious schemes for reform and modernization.  The honeymoon with Bashir which started when he succeeded dear old dad proved to be short as the new kid found out what reality was all about.

Paradoxically, the inept response of the Bush/Cheney administration to the murder of Prime Minister Hariri served to rekindle the honeymoon.  The diplomatic mistreatment of Syria unified the population behind the Bashir government.  The American inspired isolation as well as the ongoing US stance of ignoring the Golan Heights in favor of the West Bank and Gaza not only reinforced public support for Bashir but gave the regime the impetus needed to cozy ever closer to Tehran.  (The old cliche about shooting oneself in the foot comes to mind.)

Bashir is not Hafiz.  This means that while the Syrian security and internal intelligence services are highly competent and omni-present, the government will not rely solely on the jackboot of repression.  In an important symbol of this, Bashir has stated he will go personally to Daraa not only to assure the investigation is undertaken as promised, but, more importantly, to offer his condolences to the families of the dead.  It is certain the meetings will receive first story coverage on Syrian state TV.

Bashir and his wife are both media savvy and understand the West better than the majority of Mideastern political figures.  Bashir also understands the ways and means by which perceptions can be manipulated effectively within Syria.  It is probable he will turn the deaths in Daraa to the regime's advantage.

Overall, the majority of the population continues to rally on Bashir's side.  It is probable this applies even to the spearbearers of the current unrest--educated young people.  Solidifying and expanding this support requires some major efforts to address the most critical problems, lack of jobs and lack of water.  One way this might be done (if the budget deficit allows or Iran is sufficiently generous) is a new public works program aimed at capturing and transporting more water to the dessicated farmlands.

The US might be well advised to take another look at the Golan Heights.  The peace process between Palestinians and Israelis is more than simply moribund--it is stone cold stinking dead.  The only viable available option for reviving the corpse is that of the Golan Heights.  Israel can live very well without the Heights or even the ski resort and water in that area.  It has no legitimate reason to cling to the ground given the changes in military technology and the record of the past thirty years of border tranquility.

Movement on the Golan would help stabilize Bashir's government.  In this context it must be noted that he is not an odious dictator but rather a canny authoritarian who is operating a country which is a going concern, secular, possessed of a national identity, and capable of being an outpost of the civilized world against the advocates of violent political Islam.  Even Syria's stance regarding Lebanon is not unrealistic or overly ambitious.  Overall, Syria under Bashir is a Syria poised to incrementally enter the ranks of those states more democratic than not.

But, for any of this to happen, for Syria to turn its back on Iran, abandon any nuclear pretensions, drop Hezbollah and Hamas, inch toward real reform, requires a strong government, a stable government, a secure government.  For this, there can be no better outside aid than assistance in getting Syrian land back to Syrian control.

That is a project worthy of the Deep Thinkers most urgent and earnest attention.